Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵"Karl," our Estonian military analyst, speaks to @holger_r and me on the latest war updates:

"The most difficult is the situation around Popasna. Russia made some progress there 3-4 days ago. Over the last few days the names of villages where fighting is ongoing are recurring. This suggests Ukraine has been able to put a break there."

"Russia’s objective seems to be to cut off the Severodonetsk-Bahmut highway to the south of Severodonetsk. It’s the main highway exiting past Lysychansk. It’s not completely surrounded: today buses left there with evacuees..."

"But it has been in the range of Russian artillery fire for some time now."

"Russian strikes on Severodonetsk from the northern side are not as energetic as they used to be. After 3 failed attempts to build a pontoon bridge, their appetite got much smaller."

"The importance of Severodonetsk: if Russia gets it, they could claim they have the entire Luhansk oblast administrative borders. For Ukraine it’s important not to have its troops in the sack there..."

"Severodonetsk is (was) a town of 100k inhabitants. If Ukraine wants to resist there, they can do it for a long time."

"75% of buildings in Severodonetsk have been damaged, 60% so much that it’s not possible to reconstruct them. Basically it’s been damaged the same as Mariupol was."

"If Russian attacks result in plenty of Russian troops getting killed every day, it might make sense for Ukraine to try to hold Severodonetsk. It fulfills the attrition objective."

"It is a bit complicated for Russia to use aircraft there because of Ukrainian forces in proximity. Kramatorsk is only around 50km from Severodonetsk."

"The situation is difficult for Ukraine in Donbass but it is hard to say more. Zelensky made a schoolboy’s error when talking about 50-100 fallen troops a day. This figure is impossible to verify but it will start living its own life now..."

"The interviewer asked him about canceling the ban to leave the country. Zelensky was justifying why it shouldn’t be done and got emotional."

"I believe that 50-100 killed Ukraine troops in action may reflect the worst days of the war, not an average."

"There is little activity elsewhere on the front. There is fighting in Southern Donbass but no progress. Same in Izyum. Russia is allegedly bringing in additional units to start attacks towards Zaporizhzhia but I doubt they can do it."

"Ukraine, on the other hand, hasn’t made any more progress in Kharkiv. Moving further east there would allow the cutting of Russian supply lines."

"Much depends how much Western weaponry Ukraine has already put to use on the frontlines and if/how much it affects the battles. If more weapons are still coming and the effect isn’t visible yet on the ground, it will help tilt the outcomes towards Kyiv."

"What both sides lack the most: manpower. But it’s a more critical problem for Russia. Neither side seems to be able to bring in new units, but only patch destroyed ones."

"Special attention goes to the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who is knowingly stretching the process to send weapons to Ukraine. His idea seems to be to give as little as possible and delay it as much as possible. It is clear he actually doesn’t want to give anything."

"Regarding surrendered Ukrainian troops in Mariupol: it seems probable there is a deal for exchange between Ukraine and Russia. In Russia only insignificant people demand to send them to the tribunals etc. Significant people have decided to stay quiet on the matter."

"Russia won’t exchange them only for Medvedchuk. Ukraine may have Russian special ops men in custody. Their value is significantly larger than that of Medvedchuk."

"A telling sign of active partisan activity in the south was the explosion that caused heavy injury to the self-proclaimed mayor of Enerhodar and his bodyguards..."

"The mayor is allegedly still in the hospital and an unconfirmed rumor says he has a fractured backbone. Lifelong paralysis is worse than death." /END