🧵New episode tomorrow, not of #Borgen, but of Denmark's long history of holding referenda on EU-issues. Ninth referendum; present score 5-3 to the yes-side. Referendum tomorrow on EU defence opt out 1/7 bit.ly/3wQsSjy @thinkeuropa @ecfr
🇩🇰obtained defence opt-out in Dec.'92; after small majority had voted no Maastricht Treaty in June '92. All Danes remember that summer; also due to victory in the Euros'92 over🇩🇪Or as then 🇩🇰foreign minister put it: if you cannot join them, beat them bit.ly/3zoE2PN 2/7
18.5.1993 Danes voted yes to the Edinburgh Agreement with the four opt-outs (euro, defence, Justice and Home Affairs and union citizenship). Result overshadowed by violent riots in Copenhagen 3/7 theguardian.com/world/1993/may… 
In '93🇩🇰government expected opt-outs to be temporary. However, Danes first rejected Euro-membership in 2000 and JHA in '15. Before becoming prime minister in '19 Mette Frederiksen argued that opt-outs were a "a pillar for 🇩🇰 EU-policy" bit.ly/3wQtPZa 4/7
Few weeks before Putin's invasion of Ukraine,🇩🇰 government maintained that opt-outs had no impact. March 6, a week after Olaf Scholz' #zeitenwende speech, Frederiksen called referendum on defence opt-out - "historic times call for historic decisions" bit.ly/3GvSwih 4/7
Since referendum was called, the yes-side has had a strong lead; no-side (mainly Danish People Party and far left) has not been able to catch up. Opinion poll from today: 44% yes; 28% no; 19% don't knows. Watch out for possible low turn-out 5/7 bit.ly/3lV6VuL
If 🇩🇰 votes yes:
1. Frederiksen will be the first prime minister to have won a referendum on an opt-out - almost exactly 30 years after no to Maastricht
2. for the first time🇸🇪🇫🇮🇩🇰🇳🇴 (🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻) will be able to participate in EU defence missions together bit.ly/3awpUJL 6/7
1. Frederiksen will be the first prime minister to have won a referendum on an opt-out - almost exactly 30 years after no to Maastricht
2. for the first time🇸🇪🇫🇮🇩🇰🇳🇴 (🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻) will be able to participate in EU defence missions together bit.ly/3awpUJL 6/7
3. 🇩🇰 membership of EU-defence and 🇸🇪🇫🇮in NATO will increase possibilities of Nordic cooperation
4. No debate in campaign about referenda on the remaining opt-outs. So no 10th🇩🇰 EU-referendum around the corner. 🇩🇰sceptical of treaty change 7/7
4. No debate in campaign about referenda on the remaining opt-outs. So no 10th🇩🇰 EU-referendum around the corner. 🇩🇰sceptical of treaty change 7/7
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