Thread by @bjoern_bremer

@LineRennwald and I have a new article out in #PartyPolitics: “Who still likes social democracy? The support base of social democratic parties reconsidered”

👉Paper: doi.org/10.1177/135406…
👉Pre-print: bit.ly/3t4M4t5

A🧵about our key findings👇1/n

Social democracy has been in crisis in recent years. Most research focuses on the declining SD vote share, but people often still have other ties to parties beyond voting. (Formerly) large party families can usually draw on a sizeable number of people who identify with them. 2/n

We develop a simple typology based on vote choice and party identification, summarized in this table. It categorizes people into "core supporters", "distant supporters", "demobilized supporters", and "non-supporters". 3/n

A party's support base thus comprises three types of supporters: Core supporters identify with and vote for "their" party; distant supporters vote for it but don't identify with it; demobilized supporters identify with it but don't vote for it (anymore). 4/n

We then use data from the @ESS_Survey since the Global Financial Crisis to descriptively map the distribution of these different groups. The figure below shows the make-up of the social democratic support base in different European countries. 5/n

On average, distant supporters make up 36.5%; demobilized supporters make up 15%.

On the one hand, this suggests that SD parties have some untapped mobilizing potential: They could increase their vote share if they were to (re-)connect with their demobilized supporters. 6/n

On the other hand, the parties’ support base is also fickle: There are many distant supporters, who could easily switch their allegiance to other parties. 7/n

To get a better understanding of who supports SD parties, we use regression analysis. We have two sets of analyses.

First, we ask which characteristics are correlated with being part of the social democratic support base by comparing all supporters with non-supporters. 8/n

In line with existing research, the figure below shows that the support base of social democratic parties is made up of voters who are working- or middle-class, who are in favor of redistribution and immigration, and who are union members. 9/n

Nothing new to see here really, but note that, on average, the working class is still as likely to be part of the social democratic support base as the middle class. We may not completely live in the world of a Brahmin Left after all. 10/n

Second, we ask which characteristics are correlated with the different types of supporters, by comparing core supporters with demobilized and distant supporters, respectively. 11/n

The figure below shows the characteristics correlated with being a demobilized or distant supporter compared to the core supporters. It shows that demobilized supporters are more likely to be working-class than socio-cultural professionals (the reference category). 12/n

Otherwise, the characteristics of demobilized & distant supporters are surprisingly similar. Union membership increases the likelihood to be a core supporter but attitudes matter, too: The core is more left-wing in both economic & cultural terms than the rest of the SD base. 13/n

Finally, we explored country variation in both sets of analyses. There is a lot of variation in the extent to which the working class (vs. the middle class) generally supports SD parties. Yet, working-class voters are more likely to be demobilized everywhere, except in 🇸🇪. 14/n

Overall, the paper allows us to give a partial answer to the question of why social democracy has been in decline in electoral terms: SD parties fail to mobilize all their potential supporters and suffer from a decline in union density. 15/n

Yet, attempting to re-mobilize some potential supporters puts SD parties into a bind because demobilized (& distant) supporters are less likely to favor redistribution & immigration. Following them ideologically could alienate their core supporters & dilute their brand. 16/x

Still, we think it’s important to consider vote choice & party identification when studying Europe's fragmenting party systems. As different types of supporters have different characteristics, we can better explain the fate of parties by identifying these types. 17/n

We're happy the paper is finally out & grateful to many people for feedback, including @nathalie_giger, @jrgingrich, @MauritsMeijers, @erikvestin, @robin_hetzel, others at a tremendous workshop organized by @SLdeLange in Amsterdam in 2019 & many people not on Twitter. 18/18