I have a friend, whose husband is a retired Marine special forces guy. He spent better part of a year at the siege of Khe Sanh. After he retired, he was a police officer (SWAT) and medical first responder. He's vaguely
conservative on some things, but not nuts. 1/n
In his retirement, he still teaches police, SWAT teams, and first responders about dealing with ugly mass casualty events, including Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and High Yield Explosives. He's still part of the state volunteer emergency services. 2/n
This past week, he got asked to do a day of training for emergency medical services providers in a different county. Think even redder and more Trumpy than his already fairly conservative home town in a red state. 3/n
Part of his training (the briefing with PowerPoint) was discussing where mass casualty attacks come from, who does them, their tactics technics and procedures, and what sorts of injuries their mass casualty events produce. Basically, here's what to expect. 4/n
For anyone who's military, this should sound pretty boring and normal: it's the intel briefing that everyone gets when discussing CONOPS.
Except, this crowd of "students" was having none of it.
Why? 5/n
Because this decorated combat vet who's pro-police in in most cases had the temerity to show them the FBI statistics on the sources of domestic terrorism and mass casualty events: which is roughly 75% right wing, 18% religious, 4% left wing, and the rest other or N/A. 6/n
Under right wing he included things like neo-Nazis, white supremacists, and the like.
The audience refused to believe.
"No! It's Antifa!"
He pulled up the spreadsheets and stats on the FBI website.
They still wouldn't believe him, even with FBI data collected un Trump. 7/n
The audience seemed disinclined to believe anything he told them after that, despite being by far the most experienced person they're ever going to meet.
He's vowed to never go back: they're unteachable.
But it says something about the future of law enforcement. 8/n
When future administrations and Fox News decide to blame someone for anything, law enforcement is going to be even worse than they are now. Remember the special treatment RIttenhouse got? I'm even more firm in my assessment that these militias are the next Sturmabteilung. 9/n
Trans people are responsible for mass killings? Sure! They'll all believe it. All the problems we see with police today are only going to get worse as the few remaining (remotely) sane officers retire or are forced out because they refuse to believe things that are patently false
Follow up. Spoke with his wife last night. The first responders also didn't believe that police were attacked on January 6th. Or if they were, it was Antifa.
These are the people that will be propping up our post-democracy government.
They're true believers.
We're f****d.
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The GOP "Wheel of Stupid Ideas to Avoid Blaming Guns" has landed on "Hardening Schools". Let's discuss how much that would cost, using some back-of-the-napkin estimates, shall we? 1/n
First, let's discuss the cost of physical hardening. There's approximately K-12 131,000 schools in the US. For lack of better numbers, let's assume that it runs a million dollars per school to put in metal detectors, CCTV, scanners, radio repeaters, etc
That's $131B in NRE
2/n
Then you have the costs to hire people to run the scanners, do sweeps, patrol, random searches, etc... Suppose we buy a crappy level of security theater equal to that provided by the TSA (thanks @adamconover !) 3/n
1. Continue pretending the system works, and live with schools full of massacred children forever
2. Escape the sunk cost fallacy and end the union
15/n
We must seriously ask the question: are all these dead children worth preserving a broken system that mostly serves a depraved, deranged people? Democratic leaders at every level need to come clean in admitting the system has deliberately been broken beyond repair. 16/n
There is no conceivable way to fix this for decades, if ever (especially if the GOP starts simply overturning election results they don't like). Democratic politicians will make all kinds of promises to do everything they can to prevent this from happening again. 17/n
I posted about this a while back, and it dovetails with my previous analyses on the US political system, but I'm going to run it back:
There's only one possible way to pass gun control legislation to stop mass shootings, and Democrats aren't willing to do it.
End the US. 1/n
At this point, the 7-point tilt of the US Senate towards the GOP means that Democrats will rarely control the Senate. And when they do, they will NEVER have the 60 votes to defeat a filibuster. That'd take winning elections by ~16+ points 3 cycles in a row. 2/n
Yes, you could end the filibuster and pass a law in the VERY rare times the Democrats hold the trifecta, but then you run into two problems:
1. The GOP will just repeal it next time they hold the trifecta
2. SCOTUS is just going to overturn it anyway. 3/n
"Orbán’s 12-point action plan also included points on faith, “because the absence of faith is dangerous” and the importance in countering “LGBT-propaganda” which was “still new in our country but we have already destroyed it”." 1/n theguardian.com/us-news/2022/m…
He's not wrong. Capturing all of the media allows you to shape reality for an entire nation. Look at how Russians view the war in Ukraine. In Hungary, media opposed to Orban has virtually ceased to exist.
Almost anything LGBT related in Hungary is treated as obscenity, punishable by law. There's no same sex marriage. No civil unions. No ability for trans people to change their gender markers. No discrimination protections. No gender or women's studies classes. 3/n
I spoke with some folks on background. Some of them think Turkey's demands are so outrageous that they know they won't get them: they believe Turkey's trying to do Putin a solid so they can act as an interlocutor going forward & play both sides. 1/n
Others think Turkey is sincere, but still asking an outrageous amount thinking that they have NATO, and the US, over a barrel. This isn't necessarily true: there's legit discussions whether having democratic Sweden & Finland in NATO is more valuable than Erdogan's autocracy. 2/n
There's a significant danger here that Erdogan is overplaying his hand. Regardless, NATO may have to make some difficult choices here if Turkey is the lone hold out, and NATO/US/Finland/Sweden won't accept less than 100% of its demands. 3/n