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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Jun 1

Okay, two things I’m struggling to understand right now:

– Do we genuinely believe that China will *not* implement more lockdowns in the fall and winter, when Covid usually surges?

– And do we believe growth will stay robust in the EU, US and Japan for the entire H2 2022?

I reckon most economists would, in their heart of hearts, say “no” to the former and to the latter.

Yet we all seemingly still assume energy prices will stay sky-high for the rest of the year, and perhaps next year, and who knows how long. Don’t we?

I’m well aware of the serious supply constraints (but even there, the question is if OPEC and the Permian won’t pump more in due time). And in summer, energy prices will probably be much higher still.

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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Jan 29, 2021

The relationship between the UK and the EU is rapidly becoming similar to that between Canada and the US - public opinion in the former cares lots about what the latter does, but that's not so much the case the other way around.

In the UK bubble I follow I see lots of frantic takes and debates hlabiut how this or that move by the EU should or could be seen.

In my EU bubble I see discussions of what AstraZeneca did or didn't do and when and how we will get the vaccines (or not). The UK hardly figures.

Of course, it's involved in some way in this whole imbroglio. But nobody actively discusses how move x or y could be seen in the UK. It really feels very much like domestic US debates that don't care much (if at all) about how stuff is perceived in Canada.

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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Dec 15, 2020

So the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine will probably be approved by the EMA on December 23. We know that because we know it'll be approved. But we still wait a week for actual approval because - yeah, why, actually?

It's odd, at the very least. If the EMA experts agree that the vaccine merits approval, just go ahead and approve it. If there's bureaucracy involved that make it longer, well, reform it then. It's profoundly weird to wait for an approval that we know is coming, just because.

I know being quite harsh here, but we need to question these processes. In an emergency situation, the approval should take exactly as long as it takes for the experts to assess the safety of the vaccine and all that comes with it. That's it.

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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Dec 9, 2020

Austria can borrow billions for 100 years for a yearly coupon of 0.88%.

Imagine the Republic would borrow, say, €9 billion and then put €1,000 for each of its citizens into a fund that invests like Norway’s National Fund.

Fanciful but fascinating.

ft.com/content/d55687…

A small, stable country could probably even get away with that. It would raise some eyebrows, but in the end, nobody would mind much. And you could repeat it for a couple years. Then you wait until global growth does its miracles.

In a decade or two, the Republic could have a veritable National Fund on behalf of its citizens which it could use to give them a “baby bond” like payout when they turn 18 or use for a number of other cool projects.

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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Dec 8, 2020

In 1990, the population of Western Germany (62 million) and France (58m) was within a whisker.

Then reunification happened – and Germany suddenly had 80 million.

In 2050, France’s population could reach around 80 million and overtake Germany as the EU’s most populous state.

France’s demographics – current & historical – will never cease to amaze me.

France was one of a few countries to kinda miss out on the massive population increase of the 19th century. And it got worse until 1950.

But then, when everyone else slowed down, bonjour la France!

But it gets even weirder if you go further back. During the Middle Ages, a quarter of Europe’s population was French.

That’d be 185 million people today – three times France’s actual population!

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Benjamin Wolf

@benbawan

Dec 7, 2020

Wenn sogar eine Pandemie und ein wochenlanger Lockdown die Leute nicht dazu bewegt ihre Geschenke online zu kaufen, kann die Zukunft des stationären Handels nicht so düster ausschauen wie immer wieder einmal suggeriert wird.

Ich unterstütze auch gerne lokale Geschäfte – geht übrigens auch online.

Aber warum man sich heute auf der Mahü zig Minuten vor einem Geschäft anstellt um etwas zu kaufen, das man die letzten Wochen auch jederzeit online bestellen hätte können muss ich nicht verstehen, oder?

Ich geh auch lieber “in echt” einkaufen. Aber grad jetzt ist es weder besonders entspannt, noch lustig, noch empfohlen. Also was bewegt einem dazu es doch zu tun? Ich versteh’s echt nicht.

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