Thread by @JMeservey

A pleasure to collaborate with @SMGebru to host last week @HailuKebede_, co-founder of the Tigray opposition party Salsay Weyane Tigray. My major takeaways, though there are many more 👇

Hailu gave a historical sketch that helps explains the conflict today. He says the struggle is fundamentally between federalists and centralists, a tension that has existed for a century. That, and not nationalism or ethnicity, is the primary driver of the conflict.

The Oromo protests that led to Abiy's rise were driven by fears of centralization. At the time, Tigrayans were "fatigued," & happy that an Oromo federalist had taken power. But Abiy was not a federalist, he was a centralist in partnership with the Amhara, who hate Tigray.

The fighting and atrocities in Tigray mobilized the population to fight, but not for the TPLF's sake, rather for the sake of the Tigrayan people. Tigrayans are not willing to sacrifice their lives so the TPLF, a "power-hungry party," can again dominate Ethiopian politics.

There is no path, according to Hailu, for the TPLF to regain ultimate power in Ethiopia, as much as they might wish to. It will likely pursue coalition politics.

He worries that the US sees Tigray through the TPLF lens, & stressed that it does not represent most Tigrayans, especially the youth. TPLF is a failed party because it did not protect Tigray. Negotiations w/in Tigray & with Addis must include non-TPLF Tigrayans.

Hailu gave a grim assessment of Tigray's future as part of Ethiopia. Before the war, talk of secession was uncommon, but now it is everywhere. Tigrayans were once prominent in the state and the church, but both institutions are against the Tigrayans now.

The other bonds--cultural, interpersonal, etc.--that knit Tigray to the rest of Ethiopia have been badly frayed. Hailu believes that after the war, Tigray must have the right to hold a referendum on independence.

A few other things I thought were interesting: Hailu says that Somali soldiers, despite the Somali government's claims, were fighting in Tigray, and that many were killed. They generally followed behind the frontline troops, and were responsible for some of the worst atrocities.

He had a negative view of the AU's role, saying that it does not engage with opposition parties like his own, that it endorsed the Tigray war, and that it is an institution of dictators that "scratch each other's backs." He does not see any solution coming from the AU.

It's important to understand Hailu's & Ethiopian leaders' perspectives. It seems clear that the war has united Tigrayans around protecting their people, but that deep tensions within Tigray politics remain. He also confirmed how hard it will be for Tigray to ever rejoin Ethiopia.

Many thanks again to @HailuKebede_ and his colleagues at @salsayweyaneti1 for speaking with us. Wishing them and all other Ethiopians success in striving for peace and unity in that beautiful country.