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Jun 2 • 60 tweets • 18 min read
I'll be live-tweeting updates on the #OnElxn in #HamOnt and #Niagara tonight for @TheAgenda. Check out TVO (on TV), go to TVO.org, or cruise our social media for live coverage starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Here are the ridings I'm watching:
Haldimand-Norfolk, where polling aggregators are predicting a win for PC candidate Ken Hewitt, mayor of Haldimand County
niagarafallsreview.ca/local-haldiman…
Flamborough-Glanbrook, where pollsters predict PC former sitting member Donna Skelly will be re-elected cbc.ca/news/canada/ha…
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, where it's looking like a toss-up, or a slight NDP win for former sitting member Sandy Shaw
cbc.ca/news/canada/ha…
Hamilton Centre, where pollsters predict the re-election of NDP leader Andrea Horwath
cbc.ca/news/canada/ha…
Hamilton Mountain, also a predicted NDP win for former sitting member Monique Taylor cbc.ca/news/canada/ha…
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, a predicted PC/NDP toss-up where the former sitting NDP member, Paul Miller, is now running as an independent cbc.ca/news/canada/ha…
Niagara West, where PC former sitting member Sam Oosterhoff is predicted to win niagarathisweek.com/news-story/106…
St. Catharines, a projected PC/NDP toss-up with NDP former sitting member Jennie Stevens running again
niagarathisweek.com/news-story/106…
Niagara Centre, where depending who you ask, it's a likely PC pick-up or a PC/NDP toss-up (NDP former sitting Jeff Burch is running for re-election) niagarathisweek.com/news-story/106…
And last but not least: Niagara Falls, where some are predicting a likely win for NDP former sitting member Wayne Gates, and others project a PC/NDP toss-up niagarathisweek.com/news-story/106…
It'll be a longer wait to get results in some #HamOnt area ridings as some polling stations will now be open later.
@TheAgenda's #OnElxn night coverage is live:
For Northern Ontario riding-by-riding coverage, follow my colleague, the inimitable @charneland:
Most, but not all, polls are now closed. #OnElxn
Results will start showing up on TVO.org soon: tvo.org/article/electi… I cannot wait.
On @TheAgenda, @ErinKelly_AI just said her team's AI Polly picked up a sense of frustration in #HamOnt over PC cuts to autism services.
@TheAgenda @ErinKelly_AI
CBC News just joined the news orgs projecting a PC majority tonight
TVO has called it too. PC majority.
Many polls still reporting, but some interesting preliminary results in #HamOnt and #Niagara:
- PCs are leading in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
- NDP leading in Niagara Centre
- NDP leading in Niagara Falls
In more expected news, preliminary results show:
- Hamilton Centre NDP lead (where Andrea Horwath is running)
- Hamilton Mountain NDP lead
- Niagara West PC lead

St. Catharines has more polls reporting now and the NDP are leading there too.
Again, these are preliminary results. Niagara Centre has candidates within five per cent of each other so the lead could shift.
With about 37 per cent of polls reporting in Haldimand-Norfolk, independent candidate Bobbi Ann Brady is leading.
Brady worked as the executive assistant to MPP Toby Barrett for 23 years and was president of the Haldimand-Norfolk PC Riding Association for 20 years
thespec.com/local-haldiman…
The PC candidate has taken about a 10 per cent lead over the NDP candidate in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek with over half of polls reporting.
The Polly AI was tracking less than a one per cent difference between the top Niagara Falls candidates earlier this week. Now, with about three quarters of polls reporting, NDP former sitting member Wayne Gates is leading by about 10 per cent.
Haldimand-Norfolk is within five per cent now. Half of the polls are reporting.

Hamilton Centre looks like a safe NDP win.

With over 60 per cent of the polls reporting, the PC lead in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek has increased.
Hamilton Mountain also looking like an NDP win now.

A near-10 per cent lead in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas for NDP former sitting member Sandy Shaw with about 45 per cent of polls reporting.

Niagara Centre is still neck and neck NDP-PC.
Niagara Falls appears to have gone NDP, Niagara West PC and St. Catharines NDP.
CBC projects PC candidate Neil Lumsden will take Hamilton East—Stoney Creek.
Lumsden is a Canadian Football hall of famer, who was the general manager of the Hamilton Ticats.
As predicted:
Interestingly, Niagara West is Niagara's biggest but least populated riding. However, it had the best voter turnout in 2018. That appears to be true again this year, with Elections Ontario showing a turnout of about 50 per cent. That's the highest of all ridings I'm tracking.
Results in ridings I'm watching with over 75 per cent of polls reporting:
Hamilton Centre: NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: PC
Hamilton Mountain: NDP
Niagara Centre: NDP **But still > 3 % difference**
Niagara Falls: NDP
Niagara West: PC
St. Catharines: NDP
Sill waiting on Flamborough—Glanbrook's results. PC former sitting member Donna Skelly is expected to win there.

Still waiting on more polls to close in Haldimand—Norfolk but that's still tight, with the independent candidate leading.

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas looks NDP.
Of the riding's I'm watching, Hamilton Centre has the lowest voter turnout at about 25 per cent with roughly 80 per cent of polls reporting.
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas is showing about the same.
Andrea Horwath tearfully resigns leadership of the NDP.
Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca has also resigned his leadership. #OnElxn
With about 87 per cent of polls reporting in Ontario, Elections Ontario is reporting roughly 39 per cent of voters turned out.
Flamborough—Glanbrook's polls are reporting now. With 96 per cent of polls reporting, PC former sitting member Donna Skelly is ahead by about 22 per cent.
That settles it. Here are the final-ish results for the #HamOnt-#Niagara area:
Haldimand-Norfolk: Independent Bobbi Ann Brady
Flamborough-Glanbrook: PC Donna Skelly
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: NDP Sandy Shaw
Hamilton Mountain: NDP Monique Taylor
Hamilton Centre: NDP Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: PC Neil Lumsden
Niagara West: PC Sam Oosterhoff
Niagara Centre: NDP Jeff Burch
St. Catharines: NDP Jennie Stevens
Niagara Falls: NDP Wayne Gates
FWIW the exact number here may change. It's sitting at about 40 per cent now with about 92 per cent of polls reporting. Still, the lowest turnout on record was about 48 per cent in 2011.
I'm taking my tweeting shoes off for the night. The #HamOnt-#Niagara region saw a two seats change, a couple very close races, and overall low voter turnout.
Until tomorrow, Ontario. 👋
Great analysis in the local news today.

Haldimand-Norfolk:
"The vote was an apparent repudiation of Hewitt as the Conservative party’s appointed candidate and an endorsement of Brady and Barrett, who held office for 27 years and ran Brady’s campaign."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Flamborough-Glanbrook:
"One of the contentious issues in the race seemed to be what rural swaths of the riding’s 899 square kilometres will look like in the future."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Hamilton West-Ancaster Dundas:
"The decline in [NDP] support was reflective of a drop in the overall voter turnout in the riding, which saw 47.4 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, according to Elections Ontario."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Hamilton Centre:
"To little surprise, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath handily took care of business in her own backyard Thursday night.
"But as she took the stage to thank supporters in an emotional speech, she announced she would resign as party leader."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Hamilton Mountain:
"The Hamilton Mountain has gone orange once again as Monique Taylor secured her fourth term as MPP for the riding."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek:
"The Progressive Conservatives have snapped the NDP’s 15-year hold on Hamilton East-Stoney Creek with a decisive victory."
thespec.com/news/provincia…
Niagara West:
"Make it three in a row for Sam Oosterhoff in Niagara West."
stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…
St. Catharines:
"Much like the federal election last year, which saw all four of Niagara’s members of Parliament retain their seats, it was status quo in the region’s four provincial ridings."
stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…
Niagara Centre:
"With 41,226 votes in over 66 polling areas, Progressive Conservative candidate Fred Davies, of Port Colborne, came within 850 votes of Burch.
"That's less than the 1,000 votes captured in the riding by the new New Blue Party of Ontario."
stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…
Niagara Falls:
"Incumbent Wayne Gates will return to Queen’s Park as the area’s MPP after winning his fourth straight election."
stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r…

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Justin Chandler (he/him) ☔️🍀 Profile picture
Jun 7
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When it comes to preventing homelessness and supporting unhoused people in Ontario, “we’ve known what the solutions are for a very long time,” says @JesseJenkinson (@MAP_Health). “It’s just whether or not anyone’s going to finally do something about it.” #OnElxn #OnPoli [1/9]
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Justin Chandler (he/him) ☔️🍀 Profile picture
May 24
🏙️🏡In recognition of rapidly rising rents, the four major parties in Ontario are promising some big changes for renters, including rent control and vacancy control. I talked to two housing experts about what impact those policies could have. #OnPoli #OnElxn [1/7]
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Apr 12
🌬🏫Good ventilation reduces the risk of COVID-19 transmission. So what’s being done to improve the air kids breathe in schools? I asked the Ministry of Education, Niagara's public school board (@dsbn) and acting MOH, @mustafahirji, and HVAC engineer @joeyfox85. #OnPoli [1/12]
Prior to the pandemic, public health in Niagara didn’t play much of a role in ventilation, Hirji says. But that changed as “we realized that this virus actually spreads through the air, and ventilation can be one of the tools that stops its spread." publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Docume… [2/12]
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Mar 29
🏫🧑‍🏫😷With about 1/3 of Ontarians age five-11 twice vaccinated against COVID-19 and ineligible for third doses, there has been much debate about letting students be unmasked in class. I spoke to two teachers and a principal about the choices and challenges facing schools. [1/10]
While the @HWDSB continues to mandate masking (thespec.com/news/hamilton-…), Hamilton’s Catholic board and the public and Catholic boards in Niagara have followed provincial guidance — and, last week, staff and students were in a position to decide whether or not to mask. [2/10]
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Mar 3
Sitting on top of a filing cabinet in Father William Makarenko’s office is a statue of the Ukrainian writer Lesia Ukrainka. One of her most famous poems, Makarenko notes, is titled “Contra Spem Spero!“ — Latin for “hope against hope.”
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