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Jun 3 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
🧵Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey
The Sweden Democrats (SD) just submitted a motion of no confidence against the Social Democrat (S) Minister of Justice, Morgan Johansson. This came after the minister deflected criticism over his inability to curb rising gang violence across the country reuters.com/world/europe/s…
The Swedish PM responded angrily during a speech in parliament, where she said it's "completely irresponsible" to create a political mess in the midst of sensitive NATO negotiations & a war in Europe, saying that she would resign if Johansson is voted out svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
The entire right-wing bloc supports the no confidence motion against Johansson (including SD, M, KD, L), which presents a dilemma. A vote of no confidence needs a majority to pass, but both blocs are tied with 174 parliamentary seats each. There is a crucial swing vote though...
Amineh Kakabaveh, an ex-left MP who now votes independently, will determine whether the vote passes or fails. As an ex-Peshmerga fighter, she's also an ardent supporter of the Kurdish cause, and is highly critical of Swedish NATO accession and concessions to Turkey
Interestingly, she hasn't ruled out supporting the right wing's no confidence vote, which will be held on Tuesday next week tv4.se/klipp/va/13771…
Kakabaveh's swing vote was crucial in confirming Magdalena Andersson as the current PM (in exchange for increased support to YPG), and the Turkish ambassador recently demanded her extradition to Turkey thelocal.se/20220521/turke…
If Kakabaveh helps the RW bloc vote out Johansson (and by extension the Swedish gov.), the latter's infected NATO negotiations with Turkey would become further complicated. General elections are scheduled for September 11, but the Swedish gov. resigning now would neuter our FP
Kakabaveh is in talks with the Social Democrat (S) leadership regarding the Swedish weapon exports ban to Turkey (which was recently lifted) & ”the classification of some Kurds as terrorists”. Will the gov. ensure its survival or Turkish NATO demands? svt.se/nyheter/inrike…

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More from @HKaaman

Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Jan 23
[THREAD] The IS jailbreak at al-Sinaa prison in Ghweiran, Hasakah that began 3 days ago was initiated by the use of TWO covert SVBIEDs that detonated at the gates and wall of the facility prior to a ground assault from multiple directions. However, this could've been prevented...
While this is a clear case of a "Breaking the walls"-style attack – the type which was regularly carried out in 2013-14 – it didn't come from a vacuum. Since the loss of IS' territorial caliphate, the group has successively built up toward this moment ctc.usma.edu/breaking-walls…
Just two months ago, in early November 2021, the SDF & US-led coalition foiled an attempted attack against the same prison – al-Sinaa – and arrested cell members, captured large quantities of weaponry, even destroying a hidden covert SVBIED with an air strike.
Read 12 tweets
Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Oct 31, 2021
The new ISWAP video featured a previously unseen up-armoured SVBIED used by the group. The modified vehicle - a pick-up truck with an Otokar Cobra window as frontal windshield - was likely used in the March, 2021 attack on the NA super camp at Damasak - h/t @TomaszRolbiecki
This vehicle is a standardized design, and follows that of other documented ISWAP SVBIEDs throughout the past couple of years. Here's 7 other up-armoured SVBIEDs used by the group since early 2019, using parts of captured Otokar Cobras, Mowag Piranha, & Isotrex Phantom 2s... Image
For more on the process of transplanting parts of captured armoured vehicles onto up-armoured SVBIEDs, see my article on the topic: hugokaaman.com/2021/01/18/tra…
Read 4 tweets
Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Jun 6, 2021
June 2: The Taliban conducted another nighttime SVBIED attack, this time against an ANA outpost at Khaybaray Ghar in Kandahar province

@RisboLensky
June 2: A Taliban SVBIED struck an ANA outpost ('Hassan Karez') in Zabul's Shahjoy district. Based on drone imagery published by the group, the SVBIED appears to have detonated just next to the outpost, blasting a hole in the wall & destroying buildings & vehicles

@RisboLensky ImageImage
June 5: Taliban SVBIED hit an ANA outpost in Ghor's Shahrak district, killing 10

June 6: Taliban Humvee SVBIED struck an Afghan police HQ in Qaysar, Faryab prov, killing 14

June 6: A Taliban Humvee SVBIED destroyed a police HQ in Balkh, killing 15 (1-4)

@RisboLensky ImageImageImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Jan 17, 2021
[THREAD] Taliban SVBIED attacks in 2021. This is a continuation of my previous thread, which can be found here Image
Between August 20 - December 31, 2020 I documented at least 53 Taliban SVBIED attacks against ANA positions across the country, an unprecedented wave. This article by @FrudBezhan w/ my comments explains how this is related to the intra-Afghan peace process gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-suic…
Here's the attacks that have taken place in 2021 so far:

Jan 5: SVBIED attack against ANA position near Shirin Tagab, Faryab (1-4)

Jan 5: SVBIED attack against Afghan forces near Lashkar Gah, Helmand.

@RisboLensky ImageImageImageImage
Read 39 tweets
Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Jun 14, 2020
ISWAP up-armored SVBIED captured by Nigerian Army following a failed assault on Monguno in the country’s NE Borno province. Appears to be based on a NA pick-up truck - h/t @CalibreObscura Image
This SVBIED appears to be yet another example of ISWAP’s standardized SVBIED design, although a tad more rudimentary at a first glance. Here are four examples used in 2019/2020 ImageImageImageImage
More pictures of the ISWAP up-armored SVBIED captured by the Nigerian Army near Monguno, Borno show the payload consisted of ~25 multi-purpose IEDs & a large shell wired together - h/t @Owl82339208 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Hugo Kaaman Profile picture
Mar 21, 2019
[THREAD] Soon it'll be the 4th anniversary of Jabhat al-Nusra and allies seizing Idlib city & pushing loyalists out of the province in what was their last successful offensive before the Russian intervention. I'll be highlighting all the SVBIEDs that were used in this thread
On March 24, 2015, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) & Jund al-Aqsa (JaA) each used 2 SVBIEDs based on BMP-1 armoured personnel carriers, striking Syrian loyalist checkpoints surrounding Idlib city (Ar-Raam, Ayn Shib, Qalah, etc.) before seizing the city 4 days later
After consolidating their gains, Jabhat al-Nusra pushed on the next month and managed to capture al-Qormid military base near Mastouma by using 3 SVBIEDs based on BMP-1s between April 22-27, 2015.
Read 5 tweets

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