Thread by @sDadia_net

Friday fun with numbers thread. Objective: find out how many total Stadia users there were from Nov 2021 to April 2022.

My reddit pool had 1164 valid answers and 76 "here for the fun answers" (likely they are the 76 ones downvoting your posts haha)

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The results are impressive. Considering Reddit is very critical and indie repellant, yet still pays for pro, maybe Bryant Chappel does represent the majority of gamers on the platform.
Comparison to @4Scarrs_Gaming survey suggests higher Pro usage among the twitter community.

Next, I used @StadiaHunters Hundred Days leaderboard to estimate the AUC of sessions/player (276 sessions/100 players) using 1 session bye bye achievement, 3 for a long journey, 7 for a big garage and 14 for master winemaker +

With @YvesHohler data (sent to me inbox) and graphs tweeted, I corrected the net profit estimate (85/15 revenue program), but ignored the taxes (are there taxes in game profit or only when we buy?)/2.76 and got the profit of individual players +

For the final step I will disclose the caveats first: I used a 4 months range to distribute popularity peaks like outriders/dirty 5. I compared other game leaderboards, as they follow similar slope and AUC I let this out, but I had to use myself to guess individual pro game use +

To account for errors coming from individual example, I used my total pro games played in 4 months (32), my kid (21) and just for me (11). Correcting Hundred individual player profit to all Pro (X*100/40.4) and then by individual games on Pro +

We get 286,985.22 Pro users (liberal estimate), 188,334.05 (average) and 98,651.17 (conservative); adding the 32% non pro, we get 421,788.98, 267,799.01 and 144,989.96 active users in 4 months. + final considerations

This would give @GoogleStadia an annual profit of $ 12 to 34.5 million only from Pro subscription, that should be stable now (people leaving, people joining). This can't guess free pro usage, as Yves data is from paying members, and Reddit pool can't distinguish +

Importantly, up to the first 3 million, Stadia gives 85% back to games (10-29mi). Direct extrapolations from discussion on reddit using reddit and twitter followers comparing to PS and Xbox showed 1.3mi peak Nov2020 (I guess new countries+cp2077 promo+others).

@threadreaderapp compile