I am going to post a note here I received this morning from a January Sixther. I will post it without comment. Feel free to read it and then come to your own conclusions:
"I listen to your podcast and I follow @julie_kellyz. It’s every bit as bad as she describes. I am a husband and father who has zero criminal history…. And I am looking at years in prison AFTER I took a plea.
"You may ask why would people take a plea if they are innocent? Innocent has nothing to do with this as my lawyer has told over and over again. This is payback. There are only a handful of representatives in DC that care about us. The vast majority couldn’t care less.
"They secretly despise Trump and anyone on the 6th as well. The DOJ knows this. There will be no reform of this government. There will be no going back. All there is now is the path ahead. But that path will never lead back to the country we once were.
"I watched for 4 years as our government that I pay taxes for, try to impeach and even oust our president with sheer impunity. Hillary’s smearing stunt morphed into a coup that lasted Trumps entire term. Then I watched the election get stolen from the American people.
"So I went to DC to support the way I thought best. I wasn’t violent, I didn’t break anything, I didn’t steal anything and that doesn’t matter. I lost my 6 figure income, friends, and my family is a wreck. I had the FBI in my home, I was brought before a judge in shackles.
"And I am a lucky one. I got to remain free till sentencing. So this is the country that I now live in. Where the powerful few can attack an elected president attempting to removing him for 4 years and where elections no longer matter.
"We are no longer free. And this country WAS taken without firing a single shot. Guns are meaningless at this point. It was the First Amendment that people should have been fighting for the most.
"I am now barely making a living doing manual labor for just over minimum wage until my sentencing is over. I was threatened with 20 years in prison, something only murderers face. We couldn’t change the venue and none of the motions to dismiss were accepted.
"So, at the pleading of my wife, the extreme bias of DC and it’s “jury pool of my peers” and advice from my lawyer, I destroyed a part of me and signed a paper full of exaggerations, lies and more importantly a narrative that fits what they want.
"I am a Christian and somehow I feel damned. I lied to save my family. My pastor tells me about rehab but it doesn’t help. I don’t look at myself in the mirror anymore. A part of me is dead now. I now wake up longing for the Lord to take me.
"January 6th was a dark day. There was violence by some, that’s reprehensible. No one should have broken anything or stolen anything or hurt anyone. Having said that, January 6th should be remembered as the last outburst from people who were sick of the coups against Trump...
"The lies about Russia gate, the double standard of the Bidens and how they obtained their wealth compared to the treatment of Trump, the double standard of BLM rioters and everyone else...
"The forced LGBTQ pumped into our children minds at school while trying to shut out God at every corner, the endless wars, the celebrations of abortions, the government spending that has put children not even born into life long debt, the list goes on…
"This was the last cry out for the death of a nation. I don’t know what’s going to happen to my family while I’m gone for years. My wife has depended on me our whole marriage. She is the only woman I have ever been with, the only woman I have ever loved.
"I hope she and my kids can make it without me. I am a J6er and I am going to prison."
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I looked into the cross tabs of this poll in 3 key battleground states -- Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Because it is absolutely impossible for Trump to get the required 270 Electoral College votes without winning at least 1 of them. Darned near impossible for him to get there without winning at least 2 of them.
Here are some cross-tabs that just don't make sense:
Nevada
-Claims Trump is winning women by 9 there when he lost them by 10 in 2020 (if this is true, why all the caving on abortion then?).
-Claims Trump is winning men there by 18 when he won them by only 5 in 2020.
-Claims Trump is winning Hispanics there by 11 when he lost them by 26 in 2020.
Pennsylvania
-Claims Trump is only losing women there by 3 when he lost them by 11 in 2020 (if this is true, why all the caving on abortion then?).
-Claims Trump is ahead there despite doing 5 points worse with whites than he did in 2020.
-Claims Biden is only getting 44% of the Philadelphia vote when he received 81% of it in 2020.
-Claims Biden is only getting 50% of the black vote there when he received 92% in 2020.
Some takeaways from the #IACaucus results in this thread, the first official votes of the 2024 election.
Before the vote, I said I was confident in 4 things:
1) Turnout would be down. ✔️ 2) DeSantis would over-perform his polling. ✔️ 3) Haley wouldn't finish second. ✔️ 4) Haley would be closer to Vivek than DeSantis. ✖️
So I was right on 3/4. But there are details in there that must be further discussed, so we shall.
Turnout Would Be Down.
Make no mistake, this was a dominant performance by former President Trump. He more than doubled the record for largest caucus win ever (previously set by Dole 1988, who didn't win the nomination btw). Before we get into some other ominous signs within the turnout, though, that needs to be acknowledged from the jump. It is clear 'muh polls' were right about his support. Congratulations to him and his team. Tip of the cap. You blew the roof off the joint. Give them their flowers.
However, this election isn't about winning the Iowa Caucuses. It's really about winning 294 days from today. And to that end, there are concerns.
Yes, I expected turnout to be down. Until recently, this has been a low energy cycle in Iowa. Then we had the worst winter weather I can remember leading up to the in-person vote. However, I never expected a 41% drop in turnout from 2016. That is not good. When you factor in we have by far the most registered Republicans in the state's history, this is the worst turnout in the history of the Iowa Caucuses.
Can it all be chalked up to weather? Perhaps. But remember, GOP turnout was noticeably down across-the-board in the special and off-year elections in 2023 as well. So this is something to watch as we move forward, because I can't think of a time when a party had diminished turnout in a primary cycle and then went on to success in the general.
The biggest driver in depressed turnout? Shockingly it was white evangelicals -- long considered perhaps Trump's strongest base. They were 64% of caucus goers in 2016 but just 55% this year. No GOP nominee is winning a general election with depressed white evangelical turnout like that, no matter what percentage of them he gets.
My man is the first elected official to snap the spines of the demonic teachers' unions in a major urban population center. This is a generational accomplishment. All he does is win on policy, which is what matters most. Except when it doesn't...
The problem is it's very hard to build an uber-lucrative following in this business with a narrative of winning on policy, because much of the GOP base doesn't actually care about policy despite its claims to the contrary. We are not the people we claim to be.
Since we're not backed by gubmint and global corporations like Left Media, we often need to move where the food is. Which is more often found perpetuating a victim narrative more than a victor one, and exposing Leftist hypocrisy more than demanding GOP accountability.
With a night to sleep on it and reflect, thought I'd share some thoughts on the Colorado Supreme Court being the first to do the kinds of things I've been predicting for most of this year we were going to see. Let's try and look at this from several different angles.
Legal
People whose opinions I respect, including some that aren't even in the Trump Ride or Die camp, believe the opinion is basically junk. However, never forget this:
We are not a nation of laws, and never have been, but a nation of political will, and we will always will be.
For example, imagine Righty social media post-Roe v Wade. "This is complete bunk. There's no right to murder your kid in the Constitution, let alone an explicit right to privacy. This will get overturned." Instead, Roe was the "law of the land" for half a century.
With the release of the latest Iowa Poll, and the Caucuses now just 35 days away, I think it is time to have a blunt conversation about the state of things. Not just Iowa, but beyond. And I'm going to tell you what I really think, because that's what I do.
And therefore, I'm not sure anybody is going to like it, but that's just my way lol.
The main goal here is not Iowa but defeating the Demoncrats 329 days from today. I have never said that before, but this time I am convinced the country cannot survive another four years of this combined manifestation of corruption, evil, and idiocy.
This is in Politico Playbook this morning. Trump campaign meeting with corporate media who hates us all, but they’re conspiring together to destroy @RonDeSantis. The same media that tried to impeach Trump and is trying to put him in prison now, nevertheless toasting his campaign. All the same people the Trump campaign is schmoozing now will of course go all in to defeat him in the general.
From a Little Birdie who was there at the same restaurant and witnessed it firsthand:
“Not a single conservative media outlet was there. All corporate and left-wing media. On the one hand, it is noteworthy the Trump campaign felt the need to travel the length of the country for a debate their candidate supposedly doesn’t think is worth his time. But to actually see these two supposed mortal enemies yucking it up, to see the liberal media completely in bed with the Trump campaign like that, it was surreal.”
This just goes to show the Trump campaign/team thinks this is all just politics. And they can reel in these vipers for some silly "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" 1-dimensional chess. Meanwhile, enemy media speaks with forked tongue. Its father is the father of lies. They advocate for murder, human trafficking, gender mutilation, etc. out in the open. The true doctrines of demons.
The Trump campaign isn't using the enemy media. It is using them. They are the ones playing 4-D chess here. At the same time the Trump campaign is buying the high-end steak dinners and bottomless glasses of wine, these same people are coordinating with the deep state to destroy Trump and anyone adjacent to him -- even to the point of imprisonment.
Meanwhile, Trump and his team again acting as if this is all a game, except they're the ones being played (and us). This isn't pro wrestling with heroes and heels and Hulk Hogan goes from a real American to Hollywood. This is an outright Cold Civil War, and only one side will win. The other will be lost to history. We're playing a game. They're playing for keeps.
This is what I mean when I say our side just isn't serious. But the other side is as serious as a Covid jab-inducing heart attack.
They accused you of being traitor and Russian asset. They stole an election from you. They impeached you. They're trying to imprison you now. And your people are wining and dining them? Are you freaking kidding me? What will it take to take this all seriously?