Thread by @everspinning

#JurassicWorldDominion coming out in a few days. Pandemic has folk realise the series was spot with "Yes, they'll opening the parks even though they know people are going to die". So my amateur perspective here but I'll watch the films & do #DinoDisaster thread on risk mitigation

OK, film number 1 in #DinoDisaster : Jurassic Park. And I may need to pause for dinner occasionally (or fact check - this is amateur perspective & like to fact check but thread is as, no warranty expressed or implied whatsoever, any&all liability rejected to maximum extent legal)

The safari dude appears, folks armed & expecting disaster. Not spotting obvious risk management/disaster thing yet - thought a worker is scared.

Guy raising gate manually and gate not secured to paddock. Poor designed. Could have had bolts and chains to prevent that. Also - pushing that cage back - some strength - know the threat posed.

Lawyer appeared talking about expert assessment - but are risk management experts in safety critical systems involved? Grant & Sattler appear. Paleontologists.
So no disaster response or mitigation folks yet to prevent #DinoDisaster.

Dr Grant at least is not taking threat from velociraptor threat lightly - unlike the kid.

3 years of dig funding has just got dangled - will this lead to unbiased opinions? Should they get a signed contract first - to ensure they can deliver a report where the editing is under their control.

Nedry is probably going to fall for the planning fallacy en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_… with his 18 minutes window.

On the chopper meeting the 3rd expert - Dr Malcolm, a mathematician into chaos theory. So nobody it seems used to designing safety critical systems to prevent #DinoDisaster is on the team of assessing experts headed to island.

Nobody wearing seatbelts in the chopper until turbulence hits & Dr Grant can't get his on - not the most safety first team?

Hat off, sunglasses off - the dinos are here.
But the visitors have not had any apparent safey briefing before meeting the dinos. Hammond doesn't seem too concerned - maybe it'll be OK.....But there is a T Rex.....

Music is getting more animated. The presentation about dinosaur cloning underway - but the guy using gestures as part of the computer interface risks "Gorilla Arm" - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchscre… the reason future computer interfaces where the stands with arms outstretched are not used

Noticing the lawyer ask if the scientist are "auto...erotica" - with Hammond the park owner (played by Richard Attenborough) clarifying the scientists seen from the moving tour seats are not "animatronics" is a line I did not pick up on my first viewings of this film.

Dinosaurs coming out of the eggs - and some of these are animatronic en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jurassic_….
Zoonoses - infectious diseases moving from animals to humans - are as great a risk as dinosaur (leading hypotheses for Sars-Cov2 having it as originating in animals)

Dr Malcolm makes valid point about verifying that system in practice works as it does on paper.

The succinct saying is: in theory there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is!

The mathematician's "Life finds a way" speech seems to lean into survivor bias en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivors… - assuming that life will find a way (when the dinosaurs extinction showed that for certain species life didn't find a way - #DinoDisaster for the dinosaurs!).

It also contradicts ideas of evolution as non-teleological dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/eng… - i.e. evolution simply sees anything that helps survival help survival and hence likely to be reproduced (rather than the helpful thing necessarily occuring to help survival).

They bred raptors.
The safari guy is Muldoon. They at least have automated feeding system. But given strength seen in opening sequence the bars on top of cage look quite thin.

The en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub… in Yucatan is alluded to - this kind of thing is not a hazard one can control the likelihood of - nor risk. So one can only do disaster prep.

A controllable risk appears - in the form of automation involving a 1 man software team. You'd usually want a team, doing code reviews and using version control such as en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concurren… (appropriate for era) - with offsite backups of code and toolchain to make software.

Looks like they have financial issues and might be deploying in production. The software should be buildable on computers other than those deploying it - and should be capable of having some form of testing (though testing might get complex).

Tyrannosaur paddock is reached - #DinoDisaster likely to see some dinosaurs soon. Dinosaurs eating man and woman inheriting earth has some truth. Testosterone makes folks more optimistic - giving illusions of control pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29065316/ relevant to this #DinoDisaster.

Lack of a diverse team: lab scientists I see a team of 8. 1 woman and 1 non-white person obvious (Dr Wu). Dr Sattler brings total of women with any kind of seniority/scientific credentials visible onscreen so far to two (2). #DinoDisaster is a #DiversityDisaster.

Research cited in Amanda Ripley's The Unthinkable (good book to read on behaviour in disasters) has women, non-white people showing similar levels of anxiety - along with many white men - but about 30% or so of white dudes are throwing off the readings - they see very little risk

So a lot of senior male scientists may not help with risk assessment - non-white or female scientist in sufficient number to get their views taken seriously might evaluate things better (so Dr Wu and Samuel L Jackson's Mr Arnold are a bit isolated to make an impact maybe).

And we can see Hammond is optimistic and self interested - and usually used to getting his own way (or else he would not have let himself into the trailer at Grant & Sattler's dig site as he did.

For full benefit of a diverse team the leadership has to take concerns seriously (and plenty of real life orgs fall short - try "Washington Post retweet") so adding more women and minorities is not a magic fix to leadership issues to avoid #DinoDisaster at Jurassic Park.

Insider threat is shaping up to a major risk - as it is at other orgs (currently that is hypothesis for CIA hacking tools appearing on Wikipedia).

Girl trips - trips and falls are major risks due to frequency in every day life. Take them seriously especially for elderly in your life.

Lack of PPE for handling dino tongue - not best practice with unknown zoonosis risk - especially if dinosaurs are related to birds and avian flu is a source of human flu. None of the sequels at least have #DinoDisaster turn into a pandemic - as far as I know.

Lack of multi-person software team and round the clock technical staffing for safety critical systems about to become the major risk.
Nedry is typing away. And weather is getting worse. Planning fallacy about get Nedry.

Even if planning fallacy gets Nedry - he is currently illustrating the point about having analogue systems to back up digital ones. An analogue lock system (even if per department) would make his lock system override more difficult. Nedry seems to be a single point of failure.

So the #DinoDisaster so far is a #DiversityDisaster, on-site software team non-existent & deployment to production, and insider threat who is single point of failure & will fall for planning fallacy.

Earth shakes, jeeps are stopped and the goat in the T Rex paddock (bits of it) just dropped on windscreen and first dinosaur appears. The lawyer taking refuge in a toilet shows up the lack of dinosaur proof shelters constructed next to T. Rex paddock.

Lack of safety briefing on alternatives to the vehicles and lack of redundant comms system is really obvious at moment - all terrain vehicles getting crushed under foot of T Rex. #DinoDisaster claims the lawyer as first victim.

This is point at which there might be a cost benefit analysis. As the lawyer died in a toilet - and so toilets are foreseen as structures in the park - cost benefit of building underground concrete reinforced ones? With first aid facilities & buried phone lines to main building?

Trips and falls - such a common hazard- part of Nedry's troubles includes a slip - losing his glasses.
Eye protection - safety precaution to talke when around anything that might injure your eyes.

Now it really is iconic Jurassic Park: T Rex chasing jeep. The fallen tree illustrates that not just system malfunction or jeep malfunction might leave folk in need of alternative shelter - such as underground reinforced concrete toilet blocks - weather/lightning strikes to trees

Dr Grant and the kids being stuck in the tree with no better place to go really illustrates lack of secure buildings with modern comms in the park.
Comms really key to adapatability & information sharing. Disaster response goes through a milling phase (see The Unthinkable).

The milling phase is focused on information gathering - finding out if situation requires action - and if so what.
Having modern comms is how more sophisticated, better informed responses are possible. With phones beside motorways in the UK, as well as mobiles, one knows options.

E.g. in motorway breakdown - whether to walk to next service station or not. Whether help is on the way - and if so estimated time of arrival.

Now they are discussing system shutdown and reveal #JurassicPark never had a full system shutdown & restart before. Terrible! Major lack of testing that systems work as designed. Especiailly on such an automated, safety critical system.

That the malware or configuration change turning off the fences is not persistent after system reboot is a major mercy - perhaps consequence of lack of system reboots and temporary nature of door unlocking required.

There is a trade-off between carrying a gun and running - but with multiple guns in the cabinet not arming Dr Sattler looks like a major oversight. Having redundant team members & being able to move in armed formation with someone watching your six - behind you - seems important.

Instead Muldoon is sent out into a #DinoDisaster zone as only armed person!

The raptors are out! Lack of two armed people able to watch each other's bacik seems major oversignt.
At least the comms are working. The lack of clear areas between the buildings seems like not using terrain for safety.

Dr Sattler navigating a building with no emergency lighting (via battery backup) - probably wouldn't pass building code in lots of industrialised countries.
Lack of access control to key park systems also perhaps an issue.

Muldoon has abandoned the key advantage of a shotgun - a ranged weapon that gives at least a bit of reaction time out in the open - in favour of hunting dinosaurs in conditions of limited visibility. It is the end of him!
Is it a #DinoDisaster or disastrous decision-making?

The fences showing that power is about to come back on is the first really good safety design I am seeing - visible and audible warning.

Not sure if visitor centre door is closed - Grant & kids just walked in - seems lax security. One wants an emergency airlock type entrance that a human can enter via simple 123 code - but 2nd door requires authorisation. Grant has armed up. But raptors are opening doors!

Brute force rather than the shotgun is holding the door. Analogue door security - door bars might be valid consideration. The shotgun has been used but to no avail it seems. T Rex prevails. Grant decides not to endorse park!

Some themes:
1) Diverse team
2) Be clear what one is securing - not enough focus on predator enclosures
3) Hire folks used to safety critical systems design
4) Practice disaster & disaster recovery procedures (lack of briefings & shelters very obvious - 1 bunker for entire park)

5) Be clear what key strengths are & optimise for those (comms,technical ingenuity if used for protection, backup,weapons)
6) Zoonotic diseases may be biggest risk

So if it had gone better how might that have looked?

A) Less of a diversity disaster - by having a more diverse team instead of having the anxiety is probably skewed to abnormally low levels by too many white guys on team. And if the team has good conflict resolution skills then it can handle the input such a team might give.

B) Clarity on what one is securing - one, stopping dinosaurs hunting people; two, ensuring loose herbivores do not cause damage, three: retaining control of park are priorities. But failure to provide independent backup systems for predator paddocks seen,

C) Practice disaster & disaster recovery procedures - they had never done a full system shutdown (this is like never restoring a backup to check it works). If predators paddocks had independent backup systems this would ensure the backup systems kicked in as designed. Brief!

Briefings aren't cinematic - the whole drama is #JurassicPark is a #DinoDisaster - but saying "On disaster we do A,B,C" is critical for having known procedure that should work.
D) Optimize for key strengths - humans have modern comms, technical ingenuity, get backup, & have guns

So whether due to insider threat or storm or dinosaurs - when vehicles were no longer safe: comms with main centre or each other, communicating to follow a plan, a shelter safe from dinosaurs (maybe concrete reinforced toiler blocks), ability to call for backup.

Rehearsing procedures and optimising for human ability to carry weapons would have lead to path to maintenance shed being through a wide clear space - in which a team of two might get swarmed by raptors - but would have the advantage of the ranged nature of firearms.

So diverse team, focus on containing predators, use comms & get folks to durable safety then call for backup, optimise for human ability to use weapons including defensible positions, practice safety briefings & backups.

But zoonotic diseases might be biggest risk of all and hard to see.
Let's see if any of that is followed up in subsequent encounters with dinosaurs.