🧡June 8, 2022 update on selected Ontario #covid19 trends.
1. Hospitalizations are down -200 (-27.7%) from last week and now stand at 522 πŸ‘. ICU is down -10.2% to 114. 40.6% of hospitalizations are "for" covid (vs "with").
#covid19ontario #onhealth #onpoli Image
2. The 7 day average of reported new deaths dropped significantly to 4.9 per day from 12.3 last week πŸ™. This is in line with the continued drop in wastewater signal over recent weeks and the ~ 3 week lag in deaths.
#onhealth #onpoli #covid19ontario Image
3. Those select groups like HCWs who are eligible for PCR tests are continuing to show declining test positivity. The weekly pooled estimate is now 7.2%.
#onhealth #covid19ontario Image
4. You can see here how the unvaccinated were much more likely to be at risk of being hospitalized in the latest BA.2 wave (as expected).
#onhealth #covid19ontario #vaccineswork
(chart Science Table) Image
5. The relative risks for unvaccinated remain much higher than vaccinated. They are now a small minority of the population in Ontario (9.6% of those 5 or older). Science Table
6. Primary vaccinations and boosters have played a major role in limiting the death toll in long term care, despite the extreme infection rates in the community and the fact that Omicron is as intrinsically severe as older variants.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #onpoli Image
7. These speed signals help show how the latest BA.2 wave has subsided in hospitalizations and ICU.
#onhealth Image
8. Ontario new Adult ICU admissions, 8 were reported today, source OHA. Image
9. Our older age groups have continued to shoulder the burden at our hospitals, along with the very youngest children (who are also unvaccinated). Image
10. A range of estimated daily #covid19 infections can be gleaned from two sources: the wastewater signal and the IHME estimate. They suggest Ontario is currently seeing approximately 12K - 25K new infections per day. That range still largely exceeds pre-Omicron levels. #onhealth Ontario Science Table chart.
11. The IHME estimate is shown here along with an alternate scenario where 80% are assumed to be masked (green dashed line). Image
12. There are three developments to watch.
(1) Vaccines including boosters will wane over time, even for severe outcomes (see orange ICU curve). The uptake of first and second boosters will impact Ontario's ongoing infections, hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths.
#onpoli #onhealth Image
(2) The second development is the growth of the BA.2.12.1 variant, with an estimated 10.3% share of Ontario's new infections May 8-14. It is believed to have higher transmissibility, higher immunity evasion and is showing a growth advantage of 1.73 over BA.2. (PHO)
(3) Ontario's CMOH and government are planning to remove the last mask mandates in the most at-risk settings on June 11. This will increase the exposure risk for the most vulnerable in the province and should in theory increase severe outcomes further above baseline rates. Image
15. Understanding and managing your risks is just part of the story. Casper has a last message for you and your family - have fun, enjoy your summer, and give your pet a treat! πŸΆπŸŒžβ›±οΈ Image

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More from @Billius27

Jun 9
I hope all hospitals in Ontario ensure that mask mandates continue and that health care agencies that provide care to those in vulnerable positions like homebound seniors continue to do the right and ethical thing. #onhealth
I hope transit authorities consider the added risk lower income workers who are immunocompromised or have health risks in their families will now face as they take the only affordable transportation to and from work.
In short, I hope there are people of backbone in positions of responsibility across the province who will do the right thing and not the convenient default option the province has laid before them.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
🧡My quick thoughts on Dr. Moore's statement today.
β€œWith high vaccination rates and Ontario’s COVID-19 situation continuing to improve, most of the province’s remaining provincial masking requirements, including public transit, will expire"
#onpoli #onhealth #covid19
"high vaccination rates"
First, what matters is THREE doses and even then most Ontarian's have limited and waning protection against infection. "Fully vaccinated" based on two doses is harmful and misleading. UKHSA vaccine surveillance ...
Most age groups under 60 have inadequate third dose coverage. Only 60.4% of adults have had a third dose. And only 36.5% of children have had a second dose. The high vaccination rationale is vacuous. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jun 7
Many of you are being gaslit into believing covid is over. This is summer, expect infection risks to be temporarily lower after the BA.2 wave burns itself out. But the next in line fittest variants will almost certainly grow and generate more (re)infections, illness, and deaths.
You are being gaslit into thinking masks aren't needed in indoor public settings. This is false.
You are being gaslit into thinking infections are unimportant. This is false. More are dying now per month than the last half of last year and more long covid data is now available.
Summer is a good time to take advantage of lower community infection levels but the highest risks remain for those less vaccinated and those unmasked in less ventilated indoor gatherings. Putting on a simple mask to go get groceries or to shop is not a torture, it's a smart move.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
Even though infection levels have fallen to lower levels, Ontario is planning the removal of mask mandates for health care settings in 4 days. This can only add to the infection of our most health-vulnerable and deter others from seeking needed hospital care. Insane. #onhealth
Every vestige of protection for those most at risk is being removed. This will lead to additional deaths. Make no mistake.
"Lower infection levels" does not mean low levels. Test positivity for select populations which include hospitals and those more at risk are still well above the WHO standard for high test positivity of 5%.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 6
I said this SIX months ago.
There remains no justification to label 2 doses as "fully vaccinated" once Omicron arrived. It misleads people on their protection and it limited third dose uptake at a critical window just before Omicron spiked and killed many.
I also said very clearly at the time that keeping vaccine certificates based on only two doses would be a big mistake, encouraging many to frequent high risk venues when Omicron was able to weaken two dose protection against infection and therefore transmission.
There was a time to act swiftly and smartly to help protect the public from first infections, that time has mostly passed. We are now in a complex world of mixed immunities from both vaccines and prior infections.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
Here's the most controversial part of my presentation on how masks and vaccines make people safer.
I know there are some in the back who would rather read about "Estimates of the stochasticity of droplet dispersion by a cough" than stare at a screwdriver...
Some nitpickers demand more evidence from peer-reviewed and published research. /s
Read 4 tweets

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