Today's Ukraine Conflict Monitor from @konrad_muzyka is very interesting.
A couple of things stand out:
Ukrainian forces cannot sustain counteroffensives in Kherson or Kharkiv.
Russian forces are battering their way through the Donbas.
1/
A couple of things stand out:
Ukrainian forces cannot sustain counteroffensives in Kherson or Kharkiv.
Russian forces are battering their way through the Donbas.
1/
To my untrained eye, Siversk looks crucial. The road from Artemivsk to Siversk is keeping Severodonetsk supplied.
The Russian's are struggling to cross the river to the north of Siversk. And the attacks to the south still have a way to go.
2/
The Russian's are struggling to cross the river to the north of Siversk. And the attacks to the south still have a way to go.
2/
BUT @konrad_muzyka notes:
"Russian artillery systems based near Severodonetsk can effectively engage targets near Popasna and Siversk"
This will be severely impeding movement (supplies, casualties, reinforcements/withdrawals) into Severodonetsk to the east.
3/
"Russian artillery systems based near Severodonetsk can effectively engage targets near Popasna and Siversk"
This will be severely impeding movement (supplies, casualties, reinforcements/withdrawals) into Severodonetsk to the east.
3/
The infantryman's despair is palpable in this article:
"In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything."
"We are just cannon fodder"
h/t @nclavain
4/ cbc.ca/news/world/eas…
"In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything."
"We are just cannon fodder"
h/t @nclavain
4/ cbc.ca/news/world/eas…
As @konrad_muzyka notes an article in the independent which observes that:
"Kyiv is "outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces".
5/
independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
"Kyiv is "outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces".
5/
independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
Russian effectiveness is partly a function of their artillery pieces having good range but also the way that these systems are arranged concentrically to the north, east & south of Severodnetsk.
6/
6/
By contrast @konrad_muzyka notes:
"Ukrainian artillery systems are mostly restricted to a 25 km range and presumably, the number of BM-30s & 2S7s are too few to make a difference".
Assuming they're outside the encirclement they struggle to support Severodonetsk defenders.
7/
"Ukrainian artillery systems are mostly restricted to a 25 km range and presumably, the number of BM-30s & 2S7s are too few to make a difference".
Assuming they're outside the encirclement they struggle to support Severodonetsk defenders.
7/
There is very little that can be done to support these troops in the short term:
"On Thursday, Ukrainians announced that Polish-supplied Krab 155-mm howitzers were ready to enter combat. However, these systems are too few to make a difference."
8/
"On Thursday, Ukrainians announced that Polish-supplied Krab 155-mm howitzers were ready to enter combat. However, these systems are too few to make a difference."
8/
Put simply (& it is awful to have to write this) the Ukrainian infantryman face the challenge the infantry always face:
"No one here wants to hear the truth...They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're fucked."
9/
cbc.ca/news/world/eas…
"No one here wants to hear the truth...They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're fucked."
9/
cbc.ca/news/world/eas…
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