@profiler Profile picture
Jun 10 19 tweets 18 min read
Why the #oil embargo #sanctions is a disaster for #Europe & what you are not being told. A thread. Inflation of energy prices are is at all time high. In #USA which is a large producer #fuel #gasoline are up 48 % & 100 % over a year. Situation is much worse in #EU
In fact #EU is pumping more #oil from #Russia than before the #WarInUkraine. The #sanctions decided by the #EuropeanUnion are going to be imposed gradually & touch only #oil transported by sea. But you are not being told the truth . #Energy prices are hitting hard the consumers/2
will continue to grow while #Russia will make more money off gas & exports this year by exporting less, yes you read that right, because when you reduce the offer, the prices go up. But surely our leaders know what they do & have a long term strategy./3 msn.com/en-us/money/ma…
Well it doesnt seem like. The narrative goes something like that #VonderLeyen said we should buy more #Russian #Oil now because otherwise #Putin will sell it to someone else & make more money but on the long run we will get rid of the #Russian dependence.The world oil market is/4
one. What you buy someone else sells. If the declared intended goal is to deprive #Russia of oil revenue, that would mean that all exportable Russian oils — or a very important fraction thereof – would stay in Russia . That would necessarily mean that approximately 35% of the /5
#world´s currently imported #oil would have non-Russian vendors. At least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks in #Europe are diesel-powered. Most #European #refineries are currently finely tuned to distill humongous tonnage from the “diesel special” #Russian Urals blend /6
in theory no longer available because of #sanctions unless cheating prevails, of course. #Venezuelan #Iran #Oman oils are way too heavy for diesel fuel production. So then the trick would be to find crude #oil blends from “somewhere” that would be most/7 investopedia.com/terms/n/nelson…
similar to #Russian Urals with a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8. Of course, this assuming that #European refineries will be rapidly fined-tuned to process such crude blends without problems, something which should be seriously doubted /8 sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-a…
Reconverting all refineries and processing plants in #Europe simultaneously is an unheard-of experiment Matching the #Urals #oil grade in theory is technically “possible” (sorta) by blending oils from different sources, BUT maintaining the exact blend quantity, quality is /9.
risky & requires careful constant testing of all-around refinery modifications adapting internal processes to new yet unknown #oil blends Price would also go way up, of course. The problem is that increasing source #il-field production is a fantasy stifled by the realities /10
of labor shortages, increased drilling costs due to inflation, temporary or permanent lack of raw materials caused by supply chain disruptions.There is little chance that worldwide production without Russia´s EU-specific blends will ever be able to match EU demands. Meanwhile,/11
#Russia is finding new #markets real fast as #India in 2022 has increased its purchase of #Russian seaborne oil by 25 times, that is 2500% So, from 2023 #Europe will pay very dearly for its energy, thus having much higher non-competitive costs all around. This will affect the /12
internal cost of living & most probably will ruin its export-based business model.Tk he fuel supply crisis will continue increasing sharply worldwide as the 2022 summer demand season kicks in while refineries everywhere keep running at an unsustainable rate. /13
Still, refineries will not undergo major revamping & upgrades such as European refineries would now require because of new non-Russian crude oil feedstocks. Only very limited budgets would be approved for refinery modifications in the #EU as the normal investment payback is 40y
while the #EU leaders are pushing for #greendeal #electric #cars to fight #ClimateEmergency.Each and every #European port will require modifications adapting to new handling,unloading, storage, & additional delivery requirements of non-#Russian oil from whichever tanker fleet /15
is found, yet unknown, if any. This means designing building new dedicated facilities per specific consumer tanker needs. All this requires energy #oil will be done in an inflationnary environment. So where does this lead us ? A few predictions (what you are not being told)/16
a) Major disruptions in supply chain for all products requiring petrochemical industry (from #computers to #toys) b) fuel & energy shortages all over #Europe.c) fierce competition for #energy between all countries importing d) disruption of solidarity,fall of trust in government
leading to massive political & social instability, impoverishment e) major inflation for all products f) we can expect our current leaders to double down on their #sanctions & #greentransition since we know from #Covid this is their natural reaction to failure /18
So we can expect e) curbs on consumption, bans on non essential purchases & travelling more pro migration to force wages down, general life quality decreasing. Analysing information affecting human behaviour is my job

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More from @profilersystem

Jun 11
The original thread on what you are not being told about #EU sanctions on #oil has led many people to address many useful questions. The main questions are : tehnical (why is it so hard to make the transition ) , geopolitical (what we can expect) & operational (what other /1 Image
solutions are possible). Assuming the #EU sanctions against #Russia will be maintained here is what we will happen technically, geopolitically, operationally. 1) technically speaking it is very complicated to change The original thread is here. /2
the #EU reffineries to accept non #Russian oil.There are many different types of refinery and no two refineries are exactly the same.This reflects the type of crude oil which the refinery is designed to process and the demand for specific products in particular markets.Refining/3 Image
Read 30 tweets
Jun 9
What people don't understand about military political operations & weapons support.Simply destroying the adversary army, conducting regime change, killing the leadership & installing a puppet, as well as even creating an army to support your new regime. WONT WORK. IS NOT ENOUGH/1 Image
Because we have seen the #Americans do this
MANY TIMES. And it does not work. #Vietnam for 15 years & tens of billions invested to prop up a failed govt. In #Iraq, destroyed #Saddam's army, installed the puppet government, trained a new army were there for nearly 20 years /2 Image
the #US have disbanded the republican guard, the military, rearmed the #Iraqis with #US weapons.The #CIA had infiltrated and cleansed the politicians. They invested billions of dollars...And guess what...It all belongs to #Iran now...Another example, #Afghanistan, #USA goes in/3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 8
I ve watched #Merkel presentation so you dont have to. Here it is the summary . Basically she tries to protect her legacy. At this moment she is under heavy fire having resigned as chancellor. Many accuse her of being to " kind " to #Putin, too tolerant/1 express.co.uk/news/politics/…
On the other hand, she is also attacked for her strong fist ruling of #EuropeanUnion , encouraging #migration imposing hefty severe #rules for #financial disciple ruining #European solidarity,For this she is specially loathed in #Spain #Greece #Italy.Her point about #UkraineWar/2 Image
was that it was too dangerous to accept #Ukraine in the #EuropeanUnion #Nato at the summit in 2008. As a matter of fact i attended this summit & i can testify that #Putin was received as a partner, impressed the audience, got the attention of everyone even #GeorgeBush. /3 Image
Read 10 tweets

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