AB76 Profile picture
Jun 10 9 tweets 6 min read
1. It’s been well reported that #TrinidadandTobago’s deep water #oilandgas bid round disappointed. Even more disappointing is the consequence that outcome will now have on the country’s economic growth.
2. There’s been no overall economic growth in TT since the @thepnmparty government came to power in 2015 - see the dashed red line in the chart below.
3. In large part this is because #Trinidad’s #oilandgas production has fallen dramatically since 2015 - see bottom left and top right in the chart below.

That fall in production has led to a consequential fall in government revenue - see top left in the chart below.
4. Although the economy would still be smaller than in 2015, the IMF was forecasting that it would grow by 5.5% in 2022. However, that growth rate depends upon new energy projects, including the deep water round - see below.
5. Without new energy projects, which depend upon fiscal reform, #TrinidadandTobago will continue to suffer from no or little economic growth. @ImbertColm recognised this back in 2015 when giving his first budget - see below (energy prices have strongly recovered).
6. The lack of economic growth over the past seven years & the absence of the fiscal reform that’s required to create it is a national disaster. @GuardianTT @Newsday_TT @expressupdates @TTEnergyChamber @UNCTnT @MPKamla must redouble their efforts to hold the government to account
7. The IMF charts are quotes are available at elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/jo….

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with AB76

AB76 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AB___76

Jun 9
1. As @cwrioclaro writes, “It is hard work and requires a lot of thought and analysis to make changes to the fiscal terms for the energy sector.”
2. But the Finance Minister, @ImbertColm, obtained a Master’s Degree, in Oil and Gas Law, with Distinction, with a specialisation in Fiscal Regimes and Oil Taxation from the University of Aberdeen in 2016. finance.gov.tt/our-people/min…
3. Incidentally, the University of Aberdeen has this to say about #Trinidad’s #oilandgas fiscal regime.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 9
1. The @GuardianTT asks why there was a poor response to the deep water bid round. We could go back to the 2015 Budget (when the government first promised to reform the energy fiscal system), but let’s start in June 2021.
2. @StuartRYoung1, who in June 2021 had just been appointment to @TTMEEI, attended @TTEnergyChamber’s conference. He said his focus was on bringing oil & gas resources to market as quickly as possible & that he needed to review fiscal terms before embarking on the next bid rounds
3. Then in October 2021, @ImbertColm announced in the Budget, a “review [of] the appropriateness in today’s environment of our three main petroleum taxes, namely Petroleum Profits Tax (also known as Corporation Tax in this Sector), Supplemental Petroleum Tax and Royalty.”
Read 12 tweets
Jun 8
1. “This Government is committed to taking measures to reverse the decline in oil and gas production and to boost exploration activity” said the @thepnmparty’s @ImbertColm in September 2015. #Trinidad #oilandgas ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…
2. “Accordingly, in the shortest time possible, after consultation with the industry, we will introduce a new and appropriate fiscal regime designed to encourage further exploration…” @ImbertColm continued in 2015. ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…
3. “We cannot sit idly by and allow production to decline and revenues to fall, and in finding a solution to the difficulties that we now face as a country, we must all work together” @ImbertColm went on. ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken…
Read 7 tweets
Jun 8
1. Last week, #Trinidad’s @StuartRYoung1 said that he was not surprised by the disappointing outcome of the Deep Water Bid Round. guardian.co.tt/business/minis…
2. @StuartRYoung1 said this even though 12 companies had accessed the data room when bidding started and only two went on to bid. upstreamonline.com/exploration/oi…
3. @ImbertColm must surely have been disappointed. During the 2022 budget he stated that “We are accordingly deeply hopeful that the next rounds of bids in 2022 will attract significant investor interest on land, in shallow water marine areas and our deep-water marine areas”.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 5
1. Earlier this week @DrKeithRowley addressed @TTEnergyChamber’s Conference saying, “The proliferation of bid-rounds will increase the competition for capital in an energy market that is undergoing transition.” opm.gov.tt/prime-minister…
2. @DrKeithRowley continued, “While we are acknowledged as a proven hydrocarbon province with substantial unrealized potential, we need to maintain our competitiveness and resilience.” opm.gov.tt/prime-minister…
3. And @DrKeithRowley further continued with, “This involves the lowering production costs, improving oil and gas production efficiency, an attractive fiscal regime and a more expeditious execution of the regulatory oversight.” opm.gov.tt/prime-minister…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 4
1. In September 2015 the @thepnmparty’s Nicole Olivierre, who was then Energy Minister, addressed the @TTEnergyChamber saying that TT faced an “unabated decline” in oil and gas reserves and production and needed to take action to halt the downward trend. oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/new-f…
2. In October 2015 @ImbertColm, then and now the Finance Minister, committed the government to “a new and appropriate fiscal regime designed to encourage further exploration in fields on land, on shallow and on deepwater acreage”. oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/new-f…
3. The problem is SPT. It “was originally introduced as a windfall tax kicking in when oil prices reached $50 a barrel or higher. As a result of inflation over the years… $50 a barrel is no longer seen as exceptionally high price.” oxfordbusinessgroup.com/overview/new-f…
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(