How did I mentally know I was ready to manage outside capital?
@moseskagan mentioned something about this a few days ago and I wanted to share, but life got in the way.
The days can be long, but the years fly by, etc. etc. anyway. Here goes.
First, I hate to call this advice, because I don’t know you, and you shouldn’t take advice from a rubber mallet.
Unless you’re late on rent and the mallet is advising you to pay. Then, obviously, listen to the mallet.
Second, this is what has worked for me. While it’s probably applicable to lots of investments, I only know my path.
With the CYA stuff out of the way, time to listen up, mf’ers.
When I first started investing in real estate, I would conflate good property/asset management with an investment thesis. Which, and this part you should listen to, is f’ing stupid and wrong.
I’d look at a deal and think “I can increase carport revenue by $10 per month…
Cut landscaping from 60k to 55k, and market better.”
Those things are all correct, and part of running a deal well, but they are not compelling reasons to invest. It was a game of trimming a bunch of shit around the margins until the returns worked. In Excel.
Suboptimal.
I’d find 10-12 of those things and think “this is now a good investment,” but it wasn’t. It was good asset management, but not compelling. It was fluff, and my equity partners would point that out in a pretty vicious manner.
I got embarrassed, a lot. And felt dumb, often.
I eventually learned that a good investment has a simple thesis. 2-3 levers you can pull that will drive 95% of your returns. Nothing more. Finding those takes time and reps, and most deals don’t have them.
- I love this location because of X
- we will increase revenue by doing Y
- we can decrease opex/CapEx because of Z.
XYZ need to be concrete, tethered to reality, and something the team has conviction in, and can execute on.
Rare.
Once I started to be able to screen deals for levers, pass on ones that didn’t have any, and ruthlessly execute on the ones that did, I knew I was ready to take on outside capital.
It took a while to get there, and the road was humbling and painful at times.
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I talked about this back when I had 14 followers, perhaps the expanded audience will benefit.
There’s a lot to focus on when touring a property, but this is one of the most important.
First, keep in mind that everything you see/hear when touring a potential acquisition is a carefully planned script, designed to do one thing. Get you to view the deal through the best possible lens. That’s it.
That’s fine though. All in the game.
Don’t ask the property manager stupid f’ing questions like “what types of deferred maintenance is there?” They are trained to answer that question.
If you’re on tour and you think about asking that, let me be the voice in your head saying, “do better.”
I’m going to tell you some uncomfortable things about the affordable housing business.
Not corruption or idiocy, but indifference. Most people don’t care what happens in these buildings, and they would prefer not to know.
It is much more comforting for people to think that affordable housing developers like me are slumlords. Profit-seeking monsters who will happily squeeze the little guy. While those people are out there, they are the minority.
A lot of us are, of course, trying to make money, but doing so in a way that aims to help the greater good. To renovate dilapidated housing projects. To build new housing for low-income families. To implement services that help achieve positive outcomes.
Here’s a funny/rage-inducing story about a tree, a dipshit pool vendor, and a city official.
A few years ago, we bought a housing project that was in really tough shape. High vacancy, lots of crime, rundown buildings, etc. and we fixed it up.
We poured a massive amount of money into the project and it’s a fantastic community now. Beautiful buildings, fully occupied, kids can play outside at night. Anyway. One of the projects was fixing up the pool area.
The pool wasn’t operational when we bought it, and the surrounding area looked horrible. Some dead grass, busted fence, piles of dogshit, a few empty bags of Doritos. We renovated the landscaping, brought in bushes, and of course, some trees.
I take a lot of shots at brokers because most of them are useless, but not all. I was an affordable housing broker for years before becoming a developer, and it’s a rough job.
In my real life (not Twitter) we cut brokers six-figure checks on fully marketed deals and pay them eye-watering amounts of money on off-market deals. No large apartment building trades hands without the seller talking to a few brokers about the market.
Regardless of how you feel about it, brokers are involved in almost every transaction at the institutional level and having them feel like you’re not an idiot or an asshole will make or break your career. Treat the good ones well, or starve.
At its core, we want to understand what the real Net Operating Income (NOI) is today and how that number changes over time due to things we can and cannot control.
A few ground rules
First, this is “a” way to look at deals, not “the only way.” If you’re a reply-guy looking to flex, understand two things. 1.) real estate is complex and nuanced; lots of ways to value property; I know this, and 2.) I do not know, or give a shit about you.
Second, this is only part of a complex process. You can’t just mirror these and be done.
We look at a NOI as a story with 4 parts: buying, building, trending, and selling. How it moves through these phases matters. A lot.
The worst part of the affordable housing business is the kids and the animals. When the parents are broke and depressed, the level of squalor and neglect in some households is hard to explain.
I have seen things I can't shake, and it's awful.
You go into a unit because maint. wants to show you a potential issue and you walk right into someone else's world. Usually it's fine, but sometimes it's not.
And when it's not fine, it's really not fine.
Sometimes it's bad enough that we call child protective services and animal control. I've bought dogs off junkies, or stolen neglected animals off back porches and given them to good homes.