Thread by @sonnythreever

Spotting Sleeper WRs: A 🧵...

One of my favorite parts of the offseason is digging through stats and trying to find the ones that isolate great FF producers at the top, and seeing what unexpected names make appearances alongside the greats.

Put another way, if there was a stat in which the top12 players included names like Kupp, Jefferson, Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc...wouldnt you be interested in the names that appear alongside them? And if there are multiple such stats, what about unexpected names that appear in more?

For this string of stats, I set the minimum targets at 50, which, on rare occasions, eliminates a potential sleeper, but generally just leaves the relevant players (and this practice obviously excludes incoming rookies)

I browsed upsidefantasy.shinyapps.io/stats/ for these particular stats, so here are the top 12's in each of these stats, and some observations...

First up: Expected FP per route run. No surprises here, really. Makes sense to see the best producers on this list. Also, hyper-efficient AJB was still elite, despite missing lots of time.

Next, yards per route run. This has been a very predictive stat in terms of projecting fantasy production from one season to the next. Again, lots of the top fantasy producers in here, with an interesting name topping an impressive list (more on him later)...

Targets per route run is the guys who command opportunities when they're on the field. And again, lots of the usual suspects, and yet another outsider at the top.

Weighted opp rating. You could argue that in the top 6, you have *the* five best fantasy WRs when theyre on the field and healthy. Moore isnt even much of an outlier, just a guy who hasnt gotten any QB help. And really, not a single guy that isnt unanimously viewed as top-30

Finally, EPA. This is a weird stat--subjective, and aims at finding real, not fantasy, talent. But again, the big guns are here. But more outsiders. So, the takeaways? ...

We don't really need to address the big names, though I will say, for anyone thinking Diggs may be aging out (esp. dynasty players), I think we see here he's still great. Same with Cooks. Also, mentals aside, AB could still be dominant.

Higgins is confirmed #good. No doubt. I still think his ceiling is limited by Chase, who is clearly one of the single best players in the league. I can't get Higgins into my top-5 in dynasty for that reason, but he's for sure top-10.

If DJ Moore could get a QB, he'd be top-8. It's not fair. I also continue to be pumped for guys like Mike Williams, Allen Lazard, and Darnell Mooney as values this year. Even as their cost goes up.

If Kadarius Toney was definitely in the Giants good graces and we knew that for certain, I'd be pretty excited for him. The problem is still Daniel Jones, who has never supported a top-24 WR irrc

Finally, what prob stood out the most: Deonte Freaking Harris. It's truly wild. The dude was just stupid good and no one cares. Not even his team. I don't think MT should factor into the equation *at all* in 2022, but Landry and Olave are both there, and...

it's hard to see him overtaking them. That said, dude is free in drafts and on waivers rn. I mean, I don't *think* he'll do anything...??...but man, just throw him on your bench and see what happens.

Anyway, hope this is helpful in some way. /end