Big, big, big guns news for a Sunday.
Why I am optimistic and why it matters, a quick 🧵:
Why I am optimistic and why it matters, a quick 🧵:
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1536013602846560256
Political contrasts w/ 2013 Manchin-Toomey effort: That negotiation dragged for months but these moved fast—it's been 19 days since #Uvalde! Delay lets status quo retrench. And Toomey had no credibility on guns to cover for other Rs but Cornyn does—a Nixon-goes-to-Moscow moment?
On policy, negotiators seem to have dropped big-ticket items in favor of many small+meaningful wins.
First the fluff: promised investments in school security & mental health are as predictable as they are vague + lacking evidence they will measurably affect gun violence but OK.
First the fluff: promised investments in school security & mental health are as predictable as they are vague + lacking evidence they will measurably affect gun violence but OK.
On domestic violence: the "dating partner" loophole, which leaves abusive boyfriends out of definitions of domestic violence, is a big one and Rs including Ernst fought to exclude a fix from VAWA as recently as February. rollcall.com/2022/02/09/sen…
On leakage of guns from lawful owners to people prohibited from having them: clarifying what it means to be "engaged in the business" of selling guns & therefore subject to regulation as a gun dealer would affect a small but disproportionate group dangerously flouting oversight..
...The devil will be in the details about how specific they draw that line + enforce it.
In 2015 when I led research @Everytown we showed in one of the largest online gun marketplaces an annual threshold of 25 gun sales made for a distinct dividing line. everytownresearch.org/report/busines…
In 2015 when I led research @Everytown we showed in one of the largest online gun marketplaces an annual threshold of 25 gun sales made for a distinct dividing line. everytownresearch.org/report/busines…
Spreading red-flag laws: after #Parkland, conservatives incl. @marcorubio & @DavidAFrench endorsed these laws but theyre increasingly held up in typical partisan gridlock. Will carrot of federal $ make a difference in red state legislatures? I'm skeptical. thetrace.org/2018/03/red-fl…
Enhanced background checks for 18-20YO gun buyers: will searching juvenile records meaningfully improve screening of those at high risk of future gun crime? I am unaware of much research on this save by @DanielWWebster1 + imagine civil liberties concerns. injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/injury…
There are no silver bullets for addressing our epidemic of gun violence which like all enduring pop. health problems results from entrenched attitudes/behaviors. And law is just one means of shaping our destiny. But on politics+substance, this would still be a huge step forward.
Now to see what pressure @shannonrwatts @davidhogg111 @GabbyGiffords can bring on deciding votes. They're lightyears ahead of 9 years ago when key Senators reported getting constituent calls 6:1 against. Some who flaked then still seem touchy about it. :)
https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1529594078177918990?s=20&t=d8E7DjlVoswcT5z2eSIxXQ
The plural of anecdote is not data, nor does it make good policy. These reforms are worthwhile precisely because they are grounded in science about how gun violence occurs across the US, not isolated and aberrant incidents of it.
https://twitter.com/code_overburn/status/1536052901121904640?s=21&t=p7UhKDB4EqWubspbhhi9Pg
The fluff matters because that’s how Rs are going to sell it. And you can’t pass it without them.
https://twitter.com/yzToon/status/1536057520350851073
As of now, gun-learning journalists like @StephenGutowski reading similar tea leaves:
https://twitter.com/StephenGutowski/status/1536025022216691713
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