Over the weekend, the battle around Sieverodonetsk has continued to rage. Over the coming months, river crossing operations are likely to be amongst the most important determining factors in the course of the war.
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The key, 90km long central sector of Russiaβs frontline in the Donbas lies to the west of the Siverskyy Donets River.
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To achieve success in the current operational phase of its Donbas offensive, Russia is either going to have to complete ambitious flanking actions, or conduct assault river crossings.
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Ukrainian forces have often managed to demolish bridges before they withdraw, while Russia has struggled to put in place the complex coordination necessary to conduct successful, large scale river crossings under fire.
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(1/4) After more than a month of heavy fighting, Russian forces now control the majority of Sieverodonetsk. Russiaβs urban warfare tactics, which are reliant on heavy use of artillery, have generated extensive collateral damage throughout the city.
(2/4) Elements of Ukrainian Armed Forces, along with several hundred civilians, are sheltering in underground bunkers in the Azot Chemical Plant, in the cityβs industrial zone.
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Russia's operational main effort remains the assault against the Sieverodonetsk pocket in the Donbas and its Western Group of forces have likely made small advances in the Kharkiv sector for the first time in several weeks.
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On 10 June, the First Deputy Chairman of Russia's Military Industrial Commission predicted that state defence spending will increase by 600-700 billion roubles (GBP 8.5 -10 billion), which could approach a 20% increase in Russia's defence budget.
Russia is using its overmatch in force ratio and artillery to gradually seize territory in and around Sieverodonetsk.
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Russia continues to seek to generate more combat units to deploy to Ukraine. In recent weeks, it has likely started preparing to deploy the third battalion from some combat formations.
(1/6) As of 10 June, Russian forces around Sieverodonetsk have not made advances into the south of the city. Intense street to street fighting is ongoing and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties.
(2/6) Russia is massing fires with its artillery and air capabilities, in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
(1/5) Fighting continues around Sieverodonetsk. Russia is again in control of most of the city, but its forces have made little progress in attempts to encircle the wider area from the north and south.
(2/5) Russia is struggling to provide basic public services to the population in Russian-occupied territories. Access to safe drinking water has been inconsistent, while major disruption to telephone and internet services continues.
(1/4) Fighting continues in the Sieverodonetsk pocket but, in the last 48 hours, Russiaβs Eastern Group of Forces (EGF) have also likely increased their efforts to advance to the south of Izium.
(2/4) Russiaβs progress on the Izium axis had remained stalled since April, after Ukrainian forces made good use of the terrain to slow Russiaβs advance.