Garvan Walshe Profile picture
Jun 13 16 tweets 3 min read
You can’t unilaterally amend an international treaty by changing domestic law. If you could there’d be no point in having treaties. It get to the heart of the difference between two ideas of Brexit.

Thread.
2/ One kind of brexit, let’s call it May’s Brexit, is about redefining the arrangements the UK has with the EU. Those different arrangements, agreed by the UK and EU would then be understood as binding on both parties.
3/ The other, let’s call it Mogg’s Brexit, doesn’t actually approve of binding international agreements at all. It may seem to its British proponents that this gives the UK maximum freedom to do as it likes, but it actually just puts the UK outside international law.
4/Disputes with the EU would then be decided by power politics, which might have worked when the British Empire dominated the globe, but now puts the much smaller UK at a huge disadvantage.
5/ Boris won the election with a type of May’s Brexit, but the #NIprotocol bill would convert it, in defiance of the election manifesto into Mogg’s Brexit.

The bill isn’t just immoral or illegal. It’s also dammed foolish.
ENDS
I don't have a Soundcloud but do have a tech startup that uses AI for political research. Here's an example of our work in France
RESTARTS :)

6/ This, from the Bruges Group, is another example of the conceptual problem at the heart of Mogg-Brexit: its view of sovereignty is incompatible with the concept of a binding agreement.

7/ Even if absolute parliamentary sovereignty exists domestically, it can't exist with respect to foreign states. This was clear to the greatest English philosophers of the 17th century.
8/Locke called the power to make binding agreements with other sovereign states "federative" power, because he thought it different from domestic executive or legislative power
9/Hobbes considered a situation where agreements could be made and unmade at will equivalent to a state of nature.
10/ There is a view that international relations are (or were) a state of nature, but it's usually an argument in favour of establishing something more orderly, like international law, not an argument in favour of the state of nature.
11/Hobbes had famous words about the State of Nature, and that's why, from the Congress of Vienna on, European powers started to develop principles of international conduct, to try and resolve disputes between states that were nevertheless internally sovereign.
12/Respecting the internal sovereignty of other nations was not, to put it charitably, the policy of the UK (or France, btw), through out the nineteenth and early 20th centuries either.
13/It was only really after the world wars that serious attempts to regulate cross-border affairs got going, but got going they have and we call these arrangements international law (though they've an older heritage going back to the Holy Roman Empire, and the Church)
14/There's one country that never took this idea seriously (though they used it instrumentally) and that's Putin's Russia. There we see what happens when a medium sized country is stuck in the state of nature with a larger neighbour.
15/The way to avoid it is for countries to make binding international agreements (and sometimes make international institutions). Locke would have called this an exercise of "federative" power, and considered it entirely compatible with preserving sovereignty.

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More from @garvanwalshe

Apr 22
Good that this message is getting though. But UK’s tanks won’t be enough. French and American tanks also needed to make up the numbers.
You can watch the @CNN interview where I introduced the idea here.
It looks like Germany's doing the same thing, with Slovakia. Well done Germany.

Read 4 tweets
Apr 21
At the #presidentielles2022 debate last night Marine Le Pen showed a print-out of an old tweet.

My team at @article7news have been looking into Rassamblement National officials' tweets over the last few years...

There's a lot in there she wouldn't want us to see 🧵
2/ Let's start with ones on Ukraine. Here's Jean-Michael Cadenas, calling #Euromaidan a coup - on 24 February, as Russian paratroopers were trying to seize Hostomel airport
3/ And here is Thierry Mariani, an MEP from the RN, with the same Kremlin line
Read 16 tweets
Mar 9
The UK's Ukraine record is decidedly mixed.

Extremely good from the MoD, which understands the nature of Putin's strategic threat, sent weapons early enough to make some of a differences and is now apparently sending more. (gov.uk/government/new…) 1/
But it is terrible on two other areas:
- Sanctioning oligarchs
- Welcoming Ukrainian refugees

What do these two have in common? 2/
There's an Immigration and Borders Bill going through parliament at the moment. It was developed for a different, more anti-immigration time.

And there's an Economic Crime Bill, also full of carve-outs and exemptions.

Which department is in charge of those bills? 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 9
On 31 Jan I argued that the West had to shed its illusions about Russia.

How has it done so far. A SITREP. 🧵

foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/31/eur…
🇩🇪
Accepted need to rearm and send weapons to Ukraine

But still not reopening nuclear plants or avoiding imports of Russian gas

I could be wrong, but the SPD hasn't even expelled Schröder, have they?
🇬🇧
Sent weapons to Ukraine early and reinforced presence in E Europe NATO

But - oligarchs given time to move their assets to safety, refugee response has been appalling

UK stays committed to western alliance but hasn't used war to revisit strategic mistakes.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
Should the West impose full sanctions on Russia now, or hold them in reserve, as the Biden Administration and EU Commission appear to be suggesting?🧵
2/The argument for holding fire, and limiting sanctions to specific individuals or entities, empahsises sanctions as a deterrent. Once used, their deterrent effect is gone.
3/ If we impose all our sanctions now, what do we do if Russian forces extend beyond the line of control, or Putin escalates in some other way?
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21
There’s growing evidence of a lack of quality control in Russian operations, which isn’t unusual in long-running dictatorships.

Everyone’s scared of admitting to the boss that there’s a problem, so stuff gets swept under the carpet. 1/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Autum…
Read 7 tweets

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