Freeport, one of the largest US plants exporting liquefied natural gas, exploded on Wednesday.
Freeport represents a critical piece of infrastructure in Europe's divestment from Russian oil. Yet this story is almost no where in the mainsteam news, so let's dig in.
Freeport is represents over 20% of US natural gas exports. A ten billion plus+ capex project, the plant processes two billion cubic feet a day of pipeline-quality natural gas.
the plant spits off $7.4b in revenue yearly. 80% of its shipments are direct to Europe.
As Europe attempts to divest from Russian oil, it becomes increasingly reliant on the constant stream of cargo ships from ports like Freeport.
LNG is the key to energy independence for western europe, and is crippled if we continue to lose infrastructure like freeport.
So what exactly happened at Freeport?
We still do not know. The explosion occurred at 11:40 a.m. CT at on Quintana Island, 65 miles south of Houston. The explosion caused a fire that sent black smoke billowing into the air and could be felt from dozens of miles away.
While no one was injured, the response included 26 fire departments from across the state, and reports of half a dozen federal agencies.
Freeport's Explosion, even if by natural causes, represents a massive win for Russian interests.
Analysts believe that the outage will take 12+ cargoes off the market this summer, amounting to nearly one million tons of LNG that will not be available to Europe before winter.
Natural gas spot prices in the UK have jumped more than 30 percent percent on news.
As we find out exactly what caused Freeport, it's a shocking reminder of the fragility of our core energy infrastructure. A constant reminder that we are only a few bad actors away from total collapse.
1) moral alignment matters more than incentive alignment
people focus too much on aligning incentives. incentives are messy and can hardly be aligned. find people you share convictions and faith with, and keep working with them for long amounts of time. it'll work out.
2) even on long days, it should be fun
there's a difference between challenging and exhausting. the best people are extremely challenging, but never exhausting, and always in enough control of their emotions to know when to step back after a long day.
within months you will be able to buy genomics data from 14 million americans for +/- $200m?
the inevitable fire sale of this mess to an overseas PE firm is going to be a national security matter on the scale of which we haven't seen in healthcare in years
in general, hhs has left open a dangerously large hole around healthcare data sales
the reg we have now are so deeply embedded in precision oncology/2010s-RWD that they are completely unprepared to address what post-LLM healthcare data sales will actually mean
ONC should build federal data lake, incentivize state funded systems to contribute, allow companies to access these data for training/benchmarking but not directly touch/view the data.
use this as a backdoor to build a non-SAMD regulatory pathway for healthcare AI.
The Executive Order on AI issued by the White House today represents the beginning of a complete overhaul of the regulatory landscape for healthcare AI.
Here are my notes on what matters from the 100+ pages:
Let's start with a quick summary of the EO's requirements:
- Within 180 days, HHS shall publish a plan to promote responsible AI use in public benefits like Medicare/Medicaid. The plan should address access to benefits, notice, evaluation for unjust denials, etc
(Section 7.2b)
- Within 365 days, HHS shall establish an AI safety program that partners with Patient Safety Organizations to create a framework for capturing clinical errors caused by AI, analyzing data, and developing informal guidance aimed at avoiding these harms.
healthcare is having its top deck of the titanic moment
what happens in the next year will define the next century of american healthcare, and basically everyone is ignoring it.
here's the real story:
Healthcare has been defined by four factors: 1. Extremely limited supply (MDs are scarce and costly). 2. Principal-agent problem with payments (your insurance pays, not you). 3. Inelastic demand and high trust (you need it and have confidence in it). 4. Regulatory capture.
this has allowed the industry to behave in incredibly weird ways
cost can constantly grow, patient experience can constantly degrade, and clinics will still fill up with waitlists.
because patients trust it, need it, aren't paying for it, and have no choice.