Yano 🟪 Profile picture
Jun 13 14 tweets 4 min read
1/ There are 3 stages of a bear market.

We just entered stage 2 🧵
2/ Stage 1: The Unwind

The excitement (and greed) from the bull market still exists.

Mini-narratives pop up for weeks at a time. Assets still have floors. Valuations are cut but companies don't make the tough decisions (kill products, layoffs).

Things seem alright.
3/ Stage 1 doesn't *feel* like a bear market.

It feels like prices have pulled back to "realistic" valuations.

Investors continue allocating, builders keep building...

In general, life is good. Only the weak hands sell.
4/ Stage 2: Forced Capitulation

This is where it gets ugly.

Narratives die. Prices fall 90%... then another 90%. Layoffs across the board.

Mainstream media and cynics rise up in Stage 2. They laugh and shout "I told you!"
5/ Luna sent us into Stage 2.

In Stage 2, diamond hands become forced sellers. They sell not because they want to, but because they have to.

Celsius doesn't want to sell – they might have to sell.

There will be more funds, companies, and individuals like Celsius.
6/ In Stage 2, any bounce will be immediately sold into.

The dead cat bounce.

Companies that needs high token prices will be crushed. Founders that buy their own tokens to sustain their projects… they'll also get crushed.
7/ The lower prices go, the louder the bears get.

The louder the bears, the lower the price go.

This creates a vicious cycle. In Stage 2, prices crash violently.

Excitement is replaced by anger.
8/ Stage 3: Bottomless Exhaustion

After max pain comes max exhaustion.

There are no bounces. There are no narratives. Prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down. It's boring.

At the bottoms, anger is replaced by silence.
9/ During Stage 3, you'll want to walk away.

Regulators will kick us while we're down.

Your favorite Twitter degens will go quiet.

Web2 investors will quietly stop allocating.

Talented builders will leave.

Companies will shut down.

You'll question every assumption you had.
10/ Stage 3 is the toughest to survive.

If you're a company, do whatever it takes to get through.

If you're a builder, stay interested. Find other builders. Buidl with them.

If you're an investor, develop your own theses. Take bets on people you believe in.
11/ Don't lose sight of the big picture.

We're building an open, permissionless world.

It will take decades, not years.

Close the computer, zoom out, go for a walk.

Just don't give up.
12/ This piece by @fredwilson still rings true:

a) Many talented people left. But those who stayed were rewarded.

b) We will have to hunker down and build value and survive for quite a while to get there. Things will get worse before they get better.

13/ If you want my expanded thoughts on this market, @santiagoroel and I are releasing a big episode on @theempirepod this Friday.

Subscribe on Spotify, Apple, or YouTube to listen.

Apple: apple.co/3srZf7M
Spotify: sptfy.com/8inF
YouTube: tinyurl.com/3yhdf3e2
14/ In bear markets, don't forget to zoom out and remember why you're building.

Here's a list of my all-time favorite reads.

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More from @JasonYanowitz

Jun 13
1/ In bear markets, it's crucial to remember why you're building.

I'd recommend reading the classics this week.

Here's a running list of my all-time favorites 🧵
2/ Go back to basics.

Bitcoin Whitepaper: bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Ethereum Whitepaper: ethereum.org/en/whitepaper
3/ Why Decentralization Matters

By @cdixon

Read 9 tweets
Jun 10
We release the 100th episode of @theempirepod today.

Big thank you to all of our listeners, our sponsors, our production team, and co-host @santiagoroel 🙏

Here are our top 15 episodes of all-time.
1/ Why Terra is Buying $10 Billion Bitcoin

Guest: @stablekwon

2/ Jane Street: Crypto Markets vs Equity Markets

Guests: @ThomasUhm

Read 17 tweets
May 13
Brain dump from one of the craziest weeks in crypto history 🧵
1/ Crypto is anti-fragile.

Every project (except BTC and ETH) is still fragile.

Even the top projects have only been around for ~3 years.

BTC and ETH remain the kings.
2/ Bigger industry = more funding = bigger consequences.

UST at its peak was ~$19B. Luna was ~$40B.

Bear Stearns was $25B at its peak. Lehman $60B. Enron $65B.

We'll probably see a $100B blow up next cycle.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
1/ High conviction crypto predictions for 2022 🧵
2/ L1s

L1s stay very hot

- New L1s like NEAR go mainstream (in the same way that SOL and AVAX did)

- The total market cap of ETH competitors exceeds ETH's market cap

ETH's market cap is $450B. Total market cap of ETH competitors is $130-150B.

By EOY, competition exceeds ETH.
3/ Bridges

Everything moves multi-chain thanks to breakthroughs in bridging tech and bridging UI/UX

As more L1s build booming ecosystems, bridges become essential to the ecosystem.

Bridges will also launch tokens driving interest.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 28, 2021
5 principles and values I'm working on in 2022:
1) Spend time on high leverage activities that I love doing

I'm very lucky that we've hired people at Blockworks who are 10x better than me at many different things.

My time should be spent on activities where I have a unique advantage and can create leverage.
2) Spend more time in deep work

Send the Zoom meetings to the afternoon.

I have the most energy between 8am - 12pm. I'm blocking my calendar before noon to spend mornings on the biggest projects of the day.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 20, 2021
NFTs = digital status 🧵

Until now, it’s been impossible to show off status online.

NFTs changed that by bringing scarcity online.
1/ We have so many ways to show off status in the physical world.

Big homes, expensive cars, fancy watches, designer clothes – these are all way to show off your status (wealth).

You don't spend $31 million on a Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime because it tells the best time.
2/ But it's not all about status.

There's an interesting thing that happens when you buy a Ferrari or Rolex.

You join a passionate community who pulls you down the rabbit hole.

This is exactly what happens with NFTs right now.

People come for status but stay for community.
Read 6 tweets

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