Austen Allred Profile picture
Jun 13, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
As startups grow there is extremely strong pull into what I call the death spiral of bullshit.

More people -> more teams -> more buy-in required -> more meetings -> being persuasive rewarded more than building -> builders leave -> nothing gets done
This force is VERY strong.

The mistake many founders (myself included) make is assuming the death spiral is an unavoidable part of working in a bigger company.

I’m growing convinced that the single most important cultural aspect of a company is if/how they avoid this spiral.
I began noticing this pattern when I read that Amazon had an explicit goal to have *less communication* - the intent was to have the code speak for itself.

I believe this was one of the reasons @JeffBezos pushed so hard to for everything to be microservices + APIs.
Facebook built a culture of “move fast and break things” - an explicit attempt to reward building things - even the wrong things.

Apple was perhaps simpler. Jobs was the dictator and de facto head of product. If you weren’t shipping what he liked you were fired.
Musk got in trouble for dismissing spreadsheets, meetings, and anything else tangentially related to the death spiral (despite the fact that Tesla utilizes all of the above).

Netflix only hires very senior people and fires a lot of them.
Examples go on and on.

There are perhaps many different angles or cultures, each with different tradeoffs.

But the thing that is true at most great companies is they found a way, or many ways, to retain focus on product, and to keep the death spiral of bullshit to a minimum.
It’s actually natural for most founders to despise the death spiral, but they can get tricked into thinking it’s an unavoidable part of growing up.

It’s not.

Or, at a minimum, the goal should be to have as little of it as possible, not to embrace it.

Things I’ve seen work:
* Teams as small as possible
* Extremely high talent bars
* Explicit decision-maker + disagree and commit
* Permission assumed in all things
* High tolerance for the (good) failure
* High tolerance for (good/non-infra) technical debt
* Zero tolerance for not being in details
I suspect there are many more flavors I'm unaware of.

But probably the most important part is to know:

1. The pull of the bullshit death spiral is EXTREMELY strong
2. Do everything in your power to fight it
Reaction from someone at Facebook (will remain anonymous):

“You used to famously be able to have an idea and ship it in the same day. You would get fired if you did that today.” Image
I asked what happened at Facebook:

Hypothesis: Regulatory scrutiny became so intense policy team are the bottleneck and run the show now, eng and product have to ask for permission to do anything.

Tricky one to solve. ImageImage

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More from @Austen

Apr 24
It’s difficult to describe how insane a 25% tax on unrealized capital gains is.

Not a one-time 25% hit. It’s compounding, annually taking 25% of every dollar of potential increase before it can grow.

Not an exaggeration to say it could single-handedly crush the economy.
As my father-in-law (who is a farmer) would say, “You’re eating your seed corn!”
Of all the insane things here, perhaps the craziest is having unrealized gains for high net worth individuals taxed in “nine equal installments” the first year, and in subsequent years in “five annual installments.”

…wtf? Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
Holy smokes.

OpenAI board member Helen Toner published an article Altman took issue with.

She described it as “an academic paper that analyzed the challenges that the public faces when trying to understand the intentions of the countries and companies developing A.I.”

lol.

👀 Image
Suffice it to say that’s not _all_ the article talks about.

The article is literally an analysis of different ways you can force AI companies (and governments using AI) to slow development, and recommendations on how they can be used and which are best. Image
For example (I’m not making this up) the “tying hands” method, where you encourage someone to make public declarations, then threaten “punishment,” such as being “subject to congressional investigation” or facing “disciplinary actions from the board of directors.” Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 22, 2023
PSA: If you’ve wanted to travel to Maui, it’s probably the best time ever to visit (other than Lahaina proper).

Beaches are empty. Airbnbs, hotels, rental cars are at 1/4 the usual price. Flights into Maui are empty.

Lahaina is closed. Rest of the island is safe and desperate.
Lahaina is closed. Maui is open.

There people who travel to places only after they’ve stabilized from recent natural disaster.

Pretty clever.

You get the place to yourself and rock bottom prices. Everyone desperate to get the economy going.

That’s where Maui is right now.
People calling me evil for this take…

I just spent the last 3 days talking to all sorts of shop owners on the ground. Talk to the mayor, governor, etc.

80% of the economy is tourism. The island cannot afford long periods of no visitors. Tens of thousands will lose jobs.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10, 2023
There are two options at this point:

1. FDIC moves very quickly
2. Mass layoffs
The very brief breakdown of what happens from here:

1. If you had FDIC insured accounts in SVB (<$250k) you should get that cash shortly, next few days.

2. If you had accounts that weren't FDIC insured, you become a creditor. There's an asset firesale, you're first in line.
It seems entirely possible the firesale is enough to make account holders whole, but by no means certain.

And timing is the important part here. Being made whole 6 months from now doesn't help companies with a lot of payroll and not a lot of revenue (i.e. most startups).
Read 4 tweets
Jan 19, 2023
~90% of the mistakes startups make is realizing x needs to happen but not doing x for some reason that ultimately ends up being unimportant
This is why I'm convinced down markets are very, very healthy for startups.

Less time and money to waste, less need to spend all of your time trying to keep everyone happy, less optimizing for what investors want.

Building real businesses.
The biggest lie the devil ever told is that startups must choose between growing quickly and building a healthy company.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 9, 2023
Calling it now:

SpaceX is going to be one of the biggest companies of all-time, and almost nobody realizes how big it will be.

Short version:

Best team of all-time
Biggest market of all-time
Deepest moat of all-time
Fastest-growing revenue of all-time.
Yes, they won the launch business.

SpaceX is reusing rockets for the 15th time, no one else is reusing.

SpaceX launched 61 orbital missions last year and carried 70% of all payload to space in 2022. Insane.

And estimates say starship will drive their prices down another 20x. SpaceX used a single Falcon 9 booster 15 timesSpaceX has reused stages of rockets since 2017, no one else SpaceX driving down the price of launching.
But that will all round to zero. Here's why:

SpaceX is not only driving the price of launches to zero, but also the price of satellites.

Like rockets, satellites used to be an exorbitantly expensive research experiment, each unique.

Now they're being mass manufactured.
Read 12 tweets

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