Thread by @CaitlinDoornbos

🧵@DOD_Policy Colin Kahl at #CNAS2022

"The media narrative is that the Russians have been making gains. To some degree that is true but the gains are really on any given day measured in blocks. They are not large sweeping breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses."

"The Ukrainians remain stalwart defenders. There are significant casualties, but that is true on both sides. So the Ukrainians are definitely taking casualties. The Russians are taking a lot of casualties as well and the front lines are not moving very much."

"We've now provided 108 [M777] howitzers, plus more than 20,000 rounds of ammunition. They have a range somewhat north of 30 kilometers, which is significant. But it is true that the Ukrainians have a need to be able to have more standoff from the Russian systems."

"That's where the MLRS systems come in .. basically just a truck [w/] a canister of missiles on the back .. Munitions we're providing are .. guided multiple launch rocket systems w/a range around 70 kilometers & that will be useful to allow the Ukrainians to have more standoff."

Q: How will this end?

Kahl: "It's not clear whether the minimum requirements of either side match up with the maximum concessions of the other side ... Our position has been we're not going to tell anybody what to negotiate and when to negotiate."

"At the broadest level, there's no doubt that Russia has thus far failed to secure its strategic objectives. Vladimir Putin went into this war seeking to gobble Ukraine up. I think he had in his mind envisioned some kind of a thunder run to Kyiv that change the regime."

"The Russians were badly defeated in battle in Kyiv, they've also been pushed out of Kharkiv. They've made they've had more progress in the south and obviously, the current fight is focused on the Donbas in the east."

"The nature of the fight has shifted & these days, the fight is very much an artillery duel between the two sides, which is why we've kind of focused our efforts in getting the Ukrainians more and more artillery."

"Our efforts at the beginning of the conflict really focused on getting them man-portable air-defense systems like Stingers .. anti armor systems, loitering munitions & tactical unmanned systems and Ukrainians use that to great effect."

"As the war has shifted to the east & become an artillery duel, we focused on getting them systems like M777 howitzers & 100s of 1000s of rounds of ammunition ... We are going to be providing the Ukrainians HIMARS & guided multiple launch rocket systems that accompany those."

Ukrainian troops are training on High Mobility Rocket Systems [HIMARS] and guided multiple launch rocket systems "as we speak," Kahl said. The systems the U.S. pledged to send Ukraine two weeks ago has not yet arrived in the country, but officials have said they are in Europe.

Kahl says he doesn't think Putin has changed his objective of taking over all of Ukraine despite his shift to Donbas.

Putin "has not changed his overall objectives. I think he's been forced to recognize they had to narrow their operational objectives to focusing on the east."

"Clearly what [Putin] calls the 'special military operation' in the first instance is largely focused on the Donbas, so one could imagine a scenario in which that is that's all he thinks he needs to achieve. But I don't think so."

"I think you've heard a lot of rhetoric from the days leading up to the invasion [&] in the past week of Putin ... saying the quiet out loud as it relates to his imperial ambitions & seeking to reclaim territory that he believes belonged to a glorious past of the Russian Empire."

"That said, I do not think he can achieve those objectives. [Russia] may make tactical gains here and there, but the Ukrainians are holding tough. I do not think the Russians have the capacity to achieve those grandiose objectives" of taking over Ukraine.

"The sense of Ukrainian anxiety about the artillery tool is palpable and it is true that the Russians have significantly more artillery capability at the moment."

"That largely stems from the fact that Ukraine had Soviet legacy artillery systems and they've run low on ammunition, specifically the 152 millimeter Soviet legacy ammunition," which is why the U.S. and partners switched to sending Ukraine western M777 howitzers.

"In the early stages of the war, we were very focused on resupplying them with as much [Soviet 152mm] ammunition as existed in the former Warsaw Pact countries on the eastern flank. It's become more difficult to do that as ammunition levels have gone down."

Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, which the U.S. is sending Ukraine, have a greater range than howitzers, which Kahl said is essential for allowing Ukraine more standoff. They can fire as far as 43 miles, while the Soviet howitzers fire about 18 miles, he said.

"The Brits have also committed to providing M270 MLRS systems, which is essentially the same system, it's just on a Bradley fighting vehicle – a track vehicle – instead of a truck, but it fires the same types of munitions."

"Because this is not a system Ukrainians had historically, they have to get trained up on them. We did provide an initial tranche of HIMARS" for training.

"We expect those systems to get into the fight soon and we're committed to continuing the flow of those munitions."

"Sometimes when you see images of MLRS firing off, it's like salvos of multiple rockets going off at the same time. That's really not how this system is meant to operate. The [GMLRS] is a precision guided munition, and a big one – a 500 pound munition."

The U.S. is sending 20,000 GMLRS, which critics say is too few.

"Think of [GMLRS] more like the effect of an airstrike rather than launching off whole salvos. So in other words, you can do a lot with a little or you don't need a lot to have a significant effect."

Still, Kahl said the U.S. plans to send additional GMLRS ammunition in the future.

"There are indications of more grumbling and finger-pointing [inside Russia] ... trying to explain why the war is so significantly off plan. I'm sure nobody relishes having to go in and brief Putin on how things are going because the cost to the Russians have been significant."

"My sense is that Vladimir Putin probably doesn't believe that the foundations are eroding underneath him. That said, you know, our goal was not regime change in Russia. Our goal is in the first instance to make sure that Ukraine can defend itself ..." (cont.)

U.S. goals:
"That a sovereign independent democratic Ukraine endures, that we give Ukraine the capability to strengthen their position at the bargaining table ... and to impose a cost on Russia in excess to whatever benefits Vladimir Putin hopes to achieve through this conflict."