For those wondering why I'm differentiating between ancestral vs proximal #OriginOfCovid pls know that some experts eg @WHO SAGO recently changed the definition of origin to mean the ancestral host rather than the pathway by which a virus emerges in human.
@WHO So when some experts say that COVID / SARS-CoV-2 has a zoonotic origin, they might not mean that it didn't come through a lab or research activities.
It just means that it's most likely that at some point an ancestral version of the virus was in nature.
I think it's very confusing for some experts to suddenly re-define the origin of a pathogen as an ancestral host rather than how it came to cause an outbreak.
In some sense, it makes their statements about the #OriginOfCovid completely meaningless.
Re-defining the origin of a pathogen to mean its ancestral host, rather than how it actually caused an outbreak in human beings, might be deeply misleading because others citing these expert statements may not be aware of the dramatic change in definition.
Now, when an expert says the evidence points strongly to a natural or zoonotic origin, we unfortunately have to ask them to clarify if they mean the evidence points to an ancestor in nature or to a recent, proximal origin of the virus in the wildlife trade.
For example, if an officer pulls you over & asks how many drinks you've had. The assumption is they're asking how many drinks you've had that day. Not since you were born or if your parents also had drinks before.
It makes no sense for the definition to be changed to the latter.
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"We urge you to reject attempts to impose restrictions on federally funded research.. based on premature conclusions about how the pandemic emerged."
Actually, I think there should be new oversight + regulation of research that could cause outbreaks. asm.org/Articles/Polic…
I'd also like to understand the process by which these 35 organizations all got together to write to Congress to preemptively ask not to restrict federal funding/the operations of federal funding agencies based on the possibility that this pandemic started due to virus research.
I want to reiterate that this advocacy for safer & more transparent virus research is intended to safeguard against loss of life & protect scientists.
No scientist wants their project to take lives. We just want to make discoveries, publish papers, give talks, and win awards.
After 2 years, @WHO, US intelligence & more top experts+virologists acknowledge that a lab #OriginOfCovid is plausible and deserving of an investigation.
Yet, the attacks by scientists & pundits on those who called for an objective investigation of a lab origin has gotten worse.
@WHO I'm not expecting an apology or for people to say I was right in May 2020. My expectations of human behavior are not that idealistic.
Here is our statement in May 2020, for reference, that drew me into this unpredictable and dangerous public debate. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
To the scientists still comparing the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis to all sorts of conspiracy theories, you need to read these private emails among top virologists freaking out about a plausible lab leak and even a genetically engineered origin of Covid-19.
“Unnoticed by most, however, was a key difference that significantly shifted the risk calculation. The Chinese work was carried out at biosafety level 2..
We don't know when the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan.
According to 1 group of virologists, the first cases were most likely at the end of Nov & early Dec 2019. But this contrasts with reports from experts who had heard of the outbreak by mid-Dec 2019. zenodo.org/record/6291628…
If the COVID-19 virus had jumped from an animal to a human person in late Nov 2019, causing the pandemic, that would mean the case had to develop symptoms, spread to cause detected outbreak, news travelled outside of the province & country in 2-3 weeks.
Even the @nytimes@carlzimmer@benjmueller which endorsed the Pekar et al. preprint opted to report their earliest estimate (vaguely, Nov). Rather than say these scientists believed the animal-to-human transmissions only occurred late Nov-mid Dec 2019. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Just an FYI for those asking what or where is the evidence for a plausible lab #OriginOfCovid
The evidence for a lab origin is comparable to that for a market origin of the virus. Both pathways are plausible and deserving of a credible investigation.
Another study of wild animals in rural area of Wuhan captured in Jan 2020 for animal markets, which had in the past included the Huanan seafood market.
Zero SARS-CoV-2 or close relatives found.
Again no SARSrCoV that can use the ACE2 receptor were found from bats in the region.
@washingtonpost@AaronBlake The data, even from pre-pandemic studies, is literally telling us that despite searching extensively scientists cannot find SARS-CoV-2 or close relatives in Central China.
Bats were not a delicacy in Wuhan. Bats were not sold at the Huanan seafood market. nature.com/articles/s4159…