Thread by @BryanNott

Yesterday @educationgovuk released the data on pupils with special educational needs and disability (#SEND) for this academic year. The information is provided by local authorities' and schools' returns from across England. I have had a look at the @BhamCityCouncil data. 1/20 🧵

The headline figures are that in England the number of pupils with an education health care plan (EHCP) have risen from 3.7% to 4%. In Birmingham the same figures have risen from 3.4% to 3.5%. On the face of it, the lower percentage looks good for the city... 2/20

Looking at the figures we could assume that fewer pupils in Birmingham 'need' an EHCP than is the case in the rest of the country. Of course the key issue is whether the lower numbers reflect an absence of 'need' or an under of identification of 'need'. 3/20

As is well known, Birmingham has long had significant challenges in SEND provision and the likelihood is that the growing gap between the percentage of pupils with an EHCP in England and with an EHCP in Birmingham reflects an under indentification of need. Here's why... 4/20

When @Ofstednews and the @CareQualityComm first inspected SEND in Birmingham in 2018 they found a significant shortfall in the identification of SEND issues in pupils. See for example the excerpt from p5 of the letter of 3 September 2018. 5/20

Since 2018 the situation in Birmingham has not made a significant improvement as was identified by the Ofsted/CQC revisit last year. Since then the percentage of pupils with an EHCP has risen three times as fast nationally as it has in Birmingham (0.9% v 0.3% increase). 6/20

If the number of pupils with EHCPs in Birmingham was the same as the national average then there would be an additional 892 children and young people with the support of an EHCP in the city. Where though is it reasonable to expect Birmingham to sit in terms of EHCP numbers? 7/20

Instinctively you would expect a city like Birmingham might sit above the national average rather than markedly below it. Other factors support this, in particular the way in which EHCPs tend to track deprivation indicies such as free school meals (FSMs) 8/20

The DfE data release confirms that pupils with an EHCP are twice as likely to be entitled to FSMs as the general school population (39.7% v 22.5%). A @jrf_uk study reported in 2016 that equally those on FSMs are twice as likely to have a SEND identification (15.4% v 28.7%). 9/20

The reasons for this relationship are complex and may be, say, that where there are SEND issues it is harder for families to go out work or may limit employment opportunities. SEND issues are of course present across all socio-economic backgrounds. 10/20

Nationally about 1 in 5 pupils are entitled to FSMs. In Birmingham that figure is 1 in 3 which suggests that with a much larger cohort on FSMs rather than simply tracking the national average for pupils with EHCPs, Birmingham should sit somewhere above that figure. 11/20

For many years I would constantly hear the suggestion that Birmingham had 'too many EHCPs'. Whilst it was once the case that Birmingham was above the national average that has dramtically reversed and I thought that the idea we had too many EHCPs had been put to rest. 12/20

Birmingham now has a government appointed commissioner to oversee the provision of SEND services in Birmingham and he issued his first report a few weeks ago in which he suggested 5% of pupils in Birmingham had an EHCP (see excerpt from his report) which is plain wrong. 13/20

What appears to have happened is that Mr Coughlan has taken the total number of EHCPs in Birmingham (his figure is 10,607 whereas the last figure published by the DfE is 10,489) as all relating to 'pupils' when in fact many are for those in preschool and post 19 education. 14/20

5% of the total school popuation in Birmingham is 10,700 pupils. One way or another the Commissioner appears to have come to the conclusion that there are 'too many EHCPs' in Birmingham but also appears to have done so on a simple misinterpretation of the data. 15/20

The reality suggests there is much under identification of need in Birmingham. It is possible for need to be identified and met without EHCPs being issued but given all the other issues with SEND provision in the city that's unlikely, wherever we might get to in the future. 16/20

I have argued elsewhere that there is a serious shortfall of SEND placements in Birmingham, evidenced by those with EHCPs awaiting provision, which alongside the identification of need is one of the most pressing problems in the city 17/20

https://twitter.com/BryanNott/status/1529076950840623105?s=20&t=Xdk1kJqoRhDqTuot0eEBdA

If the number of pupils with EHCPs in Birmingham was at the national average or, as in the past, was above it, the shortfall in SEND provision would be even more acute. At whatever level and from whatever source there is an urgent need for much greater investment in SEND. 18/20

Those children and young people whose needs are not identified as well as those who have an EHCP but do not have a placement (if any) that can meet their needs have to be our top priority and it is vital we work together on evidence based strategies that command confidence. 19/20

Much else needs fixing as well but enough provision and timely needs identification is key. If anyone is interested, or wants to check my working, the data is here. If you have got this far thank you for taking the time to read this, it matters. 20/20 …e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

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