Thread by @DefenceHQ

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 18 June 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: ow.ly/otA550JAKop

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(2/7) In the last 48 hours, Russia has likely renewed its efforts to advance south of Izium, with the goal of advancing deeper into the Donetsk Oblast, and to envelop the Sieverodonetsk Pocket from the north.

(3/7) Since 14 June, Russian and separatist officials have claimed they are attempting to establish humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to evacuate Sieverodonetsk.

(4/7) Russia has precedent, both earlier in the Ukraine campaign and in Syria, of using unilaterally-declared ‘humanitarian’ corridors as a mechanism to manipulate the battlespace and impose the forced transfer of populations.

(5/7) Ukrainian civilians trapped in Sieverodonetsk are likely to be suspicious of using the proposed corridor.

(6/7) Options to leave the town are limited by the destruction of bridges, but Russia’s proposed route would take them towards the town of Svatova, deeper inside Russian-occupied territory.

(7/7) If trapped civilians don’t take up the offer of exiting via a corridor, Russian will likely claim justification in making less of a distinction between them and any Ukrainian military targets in the area.