Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵New: Ukraine battlefield update, courtesy of "Karl," the Estonian military analyst. As told to @holger_r and me:

"In most parts of the frontline, such as Zaporizhzhia or the vicinity of Donetsk, the situation remains stable. There is use of indirect fire but not serious offensive operations."

"There’s more movement in Kharkiv where Russia has been trying to regain some of the territory it lost a month ago. Russia has had little success in that. At the same time, Ukraine launched its own counteroffensives but also with no significant territorial gains."

"The most active fighting is going on in the triangle of Izyum - Sievierodonetsk (SD) - Bahmut/Popasna. Russia is advancing there, albeit very slowly."

"Russia’s goals in that triangle: 1) ultimate control of SD and the remaining 5% of Luhansk, 2) continue with an advance on Slovyansk from two different directions: Izyum and SD."

"After [Russian Chief of General Staff Valery] Gerasimov got hit in Izyum, that direction remained quieter for a month, but now Russia is using it again more actively."

"Ukraine, in turn, is making efforts to the west of Izyum but this looks more like an operation to keep Russian forces tied up there."

"Russia has been in control of most of SD already for several weeks. Ukrainian troops remain mostly at the Azot plant and near the Donets river but they maintain the capability to organize attacks out of the plant’s territory."

"The key issue for Ukraine is to keep control of territory and villages to the southeast of SD. If they can keep control, there is no threat of being enveloped. Russia has blown up three bridges but Ukrainian troops still have a way out."

"This means the situation is not comparable to Mariupol. Also, the number of remaining Ukrainian troops in SD is maybe around 1,000. That’s a maximum half of what Ukraine had in Mariupol in the end."

"SD would not be a strategic loss. The objective of the units there is to stall Russia's attacks. With current pace it would take Russia at least 2-3 months to gain control of all of Donetsk oblast territory."

"SD would not be a strategic loss as well. The objective of the units there is to stall RU’s attacks. With current pace it would take RU at least 2-3 months to gain control of all of Donetsk oblast territory. "

"The opposite to the SD triangle is happening in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces have regained some territory but are advancing very slowly."

"Another key issue: the amount of Western weapons is less and the pace slower than Ukraine wants. This problem has two aspects: 1) West can do more to move the stuff quicker; 2) Ukraine's capability to accept the equipment if they don’t have enough trained personnel."

"Some signs of successful use of Western weapons: hitting Russia’s arms and ammunition depots that were considered to be out of Ukraine's reach. This is a very positive sign and clearly complicates Russian logistics."

"Russia's navy needs to keep even further away now after Ukraine hit the ship heading for Snake Island. That of course applies only if Russia’s navy doesn’t want to contribute more to its Black Sea 'submarine fleet' [sunken ships] that’s growing fast in numbers."

"Ukrainian losses are much higher than they were at the start of the war. Zelenskyy’s declared up to 200 KIA a day: that isn't an average but the maximum number on most crucial days. Otherwise, Ukraine would soon be in a very critical situation."

"Unofficial numbers have Ukraine's KIA figure between 10-15,000."

"There is new evidence of some senior level Russian military commanders estimating their KIA number at 42,000. This is considerably more than any previously reported number even by the Ukrainians."

"The next shift in state of balance can come when Ukraine has enough weapons to suppress Russian artillery fire. In close combat Ukraine has a good chance of success but how can you get that close if bombs are falling on you?"

"It’s problematic if Ukraine is not allowed to use Western weapons to conduct attacks across the Russian border. From a military perspective, such caveats are purely ridiculous. Western countries need to hold back from such requirements."

"Russia’s perspective is to hope that Ukraine will run out of weapons/ammunition. Right now it seems that the most critical days of looming shortage are over."

"Some CEE countries (such as Slovakia) have restarted their old lines and are producing Russian/Soviet caliber ammunition."

"Ukraine is steadily adapting to more Western weapons systems and there are no problems with ammunition shortages for these."

"Russia also hoped that Ukraine's public would start demanding trade-offs. But there is absolutely no sign of it happening. Germany and France's push for negotiations is not significant..."

"Right now the situation is exactly as it was in the beginning of the war: both sides' expectations are far too different to allow any meaningful negotiations. Even Russia wouldn’t agree to it." /END