Thread by @smitharnair

🧵Who decides which faction of Shiv Sena is the real Sena- Eknath Shinde's v Uddhav Thackeray's?

Speaker or the EC? Does the faction having majority MLAs have the upper hand?

I asked PDT Acharya, former Secretary General of the Lok Sabha @scroll_in

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PDT Achary:👆This will be decided by the EC and nobody else. When there is a split in the party and this is a de facto split, and both factions claim to be the original, then it goes to the Election Commission. speaker has nothing to do with this. @scroll_in

On what basis does this does EC decide?
It does so on the basis of the structure of the party and other criteria like who has control over the party. The Legislature party is nothing, it is just a part of the main political party.

All disputes that arose in different parties since 1969, the Congress party split, were decided by the EC. But because naturally when EC decides, one faction is always unhappy and goes to the Supreme Court, so, once the SC gives its judgement, that is how the matter ends.

PDT Achary, former Secy General, Lok Sabha:

Even if Eknath Shinde has more legislators backing him, that does not mean his is the real Shiv Sena. EC will be the arbiter- main question- Who has control over party structure? #Shivsena

What are probable scenarios?

Scenario 1: MVA government recommends dissolution of assembly to the governor. Now because the government has a majority as of now, it has not been proved otherwise, the governor is bound to accept that recommendation

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Scenario 2: Eknath Shinde+MLAs, go to the guv and say they have withdrawn support to the MVA, then governor will ask the chief minister to prove his majority on the floor. If he loses the vote, governor will ask the opposition leader if he is in a position to form a government.

Scenario 3: Shiv Sena had called for a meeting on Wednesday, if these members who are believed to have broken away, did not attend the meeting, then the Shiv Sena can move for disqualification on grounds they voluntarily given up membership of the party.
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MLAs will claim they have numbers to get exemption from the anti defection law by way of paragraph 4, that is merger. But merger becomes available only when the Shiv Sena merges with the BJP, meaning Shiv Sena party led by Uddhav Thas to agree to merge with the BJP- unless...

...Eknath Shinde claims his is the real party. But that will, as PDT Achary explains earlier, only be adjudicated on by EC

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In scenario 2 if rebel Sena MLAs vote for new govt, are they liable for disqualification?

Yes, for violating party whip. But a new situation would have evolved- a new government, a new speaker. Even if Shiv Sena moves a petition, the speaker will sit on it, he will not decide.

PDT Achary, former Secy General: Speaker is almost never non-partisan in India

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Anti defection law doesn’t create any disability. If you defect today, you will be disqualified tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow if an election is held, you can stand for election and come back to the house, it has been designed that way. Merger provision should be removed.

PDT Achary, former Secy General of Lok Sabha:
Who says we are a mature democracy? Just like we call ourselves Vishwaguru , we call ourselves mature democracy.

Unaccounted (black money) is being used in all elections. It will only stop with state funding of elections.