A mistake people made was to think 30,000 or 40,000 deaths would not be sustainable for the Kremlin. After all (official) figures for Soviet deaths in Afghanistan are 15,000. In reality a life in Russia today isn’t worth a kopek.
Maybe the cost of the casket but this time the corpses are left rotting on streets and forests
No zinc boys this time

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More from @MacaesBruno

Jun 22
Debate shifting from can Nato countries keep their independence to can they prevent their capitals from becoming a new Mariupol
ft.com/content/a430b1…
Another reason only strategy is to conclusively defeat Russia in Ukraine. No other way and I feel the debate shifting
The best and maybe only way to prevent a Russia-Nato clash is to defeat Russia in Ukraine
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
I lived in Berlin from 2008-2011. The city of course was wonderful, only European city with a culture that was alive, and it had been like that since 1995 or so - and maybe until 2015. My question is…
What resulted of these 20 years? First is there an intellectual history of Berlin 1995-2015 or will someone write it? And second what was the actual product? Just fun for everyone or an actual cultural and artistic movement with high realizations of one kind of another?
By the way who were the great men and women who passed through here in those 20 years? Assange lived here for a while, as did Satoshi Nakamoto. Who else? Novelists, filmmakers? Contemporary artists I know a little better
Read 5 tweets
Jun 17
I can see how Russia will resemble Iran in many ways in ten years. You might say an Iran with nuclear weapons. Well, Iran will have nuclear weapons in ten years too
Iran has a total GDP somewhat lower than Portugal and Russia will likely be in that zone too
Country will be isolated and led by a cadre combining security services and conservative or religious nomenklatura
Read 7 tweets
Jun 16
Recently in Bratislava Minister Jaishankar was asked why he had not condemned Russia. He answered India had condemned Bucha and asked for an investigation. The interviewer seemed satisfied
Now if the interviewer were a little more experienced in these things she would know the line is exactly the Russian line. Russia has condemned the Bucha events and asked for an independent investigation
Incidentally Israel tried the same trick. Lapid tweeted that he condemned Bucha but the reaction was not great and scrutiny in Israel is a bit higher than in India, so later he rephrased it, not without some embarrassment. That was the first moment Israel condemned Russia
Read 8 tweets
Jun 16
The Kremlin has a model of global politics it will try to bring into being. According to this model, great powers are allowed to expand according to their inner drive or will to power. (1/n)
Spheres of influence between them will keep global conflict in check, while protecting each Grossraum from external influence. Control over territory should extend to critical commodities and raw materials. (2/n)
Not only will war become a permanent reality and possibility but the global economy will acquire many of the traits of a war economy, where economic production serves state interests. (3/n)
Read 7 tweets
Jun 15
My latest column and one I hope will spark a debate. Kyiv is defending its people against a colonial aggressor – yet countries that evangelise national liberation are turning a blind eye
newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…
In case you think this is about Europe, remember Russia’s colonialism is fully developed in Syria: “I tried living abroad, but I hated it. This is my homeland. But I am a second[-class] citizen here. Syrians are second now. Iranians are first. And the Russians are gods.”
Read 11 tweets

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