Gaurav Sabnis Profile picture
Jun 23 12 tweets 3 min read
Maharashtra ithe aahe, Shinde, tithe naahi.
Shinde, you need to be in the Vidhan Bhavan to stake any claims. FYI,

Vidhan Bhavan Not Vidhan Bhavan
You can't spell Eknath Shinde without E.D. 🧐
Although media and centrists are trying to portray Uddhav as beleaguered and boxed in, and he may seem so, he *is* the incumbent Chief Minister & party president.

Eknath Shinde is just a traveling to-be-disqualified MLA sitting in Assam with an iPhone & some screenshots.
शिंदे बंड सध्या "बाप दाखव नाही तर श्राद्ध कर" परिस्थितीत आहे. फार झाली भटकंती आणि पत्रव्यवहार. मुंबई ला या आणि घ्या ताबा. 🤷🏽‍♂️
#MaharashtraCrisis
The very fact that he and his supposed associates are a thousand kilometers away even despite claiming they have most MLAs shows that they know the fatal flaw in their plan.

As does the BJP hence no public gloating yet like previous operation lotuses.
Forget the CMship or the rest of this term, most of which will be in the 2024 campaign mode anyway.

The fatal flaw is that this plan ONLY works if Uddhav & Aditya voluntarily go away. And throw their support behind the "new" Sena. Or they can't even step inside Mumbai.
Unless BJP somehow manages to install Shinde as a remote CM (which they very well might try), he has to return to the state to become CM. Landing at an Airport in Andheri and then being driven to Mantralaya.

That's the fatal flaw.

Good luck making that trip without UT/AT nods.
Just cos Uddhav has kept the sainiks happy and in their homes, people seem to have forgotten what they are capable of on the streets. It could be an extremely volatile situation.

Maybe that's what MoSha's endgame is? An excuse to declare president's rule & send military in?
I really don't see how the Thackeray's can back down. Even if UT is the reluctant king happiest in the woods with a camera, his son has staked his future on being the heir.

And without Thackeray's willingly giving up, this is all just remote online roleplay. Not an IRL mutiny.
Also why exactly did they move from Gujarat to Assam, which is going through an actual real life crisis right now, if they are so brave and courageous and confident?

You were too scared even in Surat cos it's a few hours drive from Bombay.

How are you going to rule FROM Bombay?
Godi media is reporting UT moving to Matoshree as the beginning of the end, whereas people who know Mumbai know it is more of a "come at me, bro".

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Gaurav Sabnis

Gaurav Sabnis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gauravsabnis

Jun 25
Sena is like, you think we are Congress that you will break us up and we will quietly get broken up and do Chintan shibirs? Our boys have 3 years of pent up energy anyway. They'll remind you how non Congress they are. Image
And BJP is not touching this with a ten foot pole.

Unless their eventual play is Article 365 and President's Rule.

But if they think Maharashtra will willingly submit to it, especially when this is a pretty objectively competent government, they got another thing coming.
Unless BJP actively wants to start a Civil War, their only play here is to cut Shinde loose, walk away having seriously wounded the Sena, and hope to win in 2024 in the ensuing chaos.
Read 40 tweets
Jun 25
An interesting thing in the last couple of days about #Maharashtra is that sanghi influencers ones like sh3f, pritig & those pretending to be centrists, have switched from gloating mode to whining whataboutery about Sena tactics. Like they know this was not a smart play.
Centrist pretending unkils have switched from "see Uddhav did ok with covid but..." to "y no liberals on street guaranteeing safe passage for rebel MLAs & what about K8 🗝️ chital3 &" more such whines.

Winning teams rarely make excuses for losing.
Sob sob I'm cryin' y'all but it's because I just care so much about Balasaheb you see. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 25
It's 430 AM and I'm by the East River gazing at the eastern horizon at a rare full attendance lineup by the usual suspects.

Mercury, Venus, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn are all visible and lined up kinda close to each other.

If you're awake on the east coast right now, look east
Noticed it first yesterday and went "sab log line mein khade ho jao...arre yeh toh pehle se hi line mein khade Hain".

Soon the sun will be up. That's the "7 heavens" all in one frame.
Wonder if @parags is awake and ready with a wide angle lens to capture all 7 heavens in one image just as the sun peeps up.

Not possible from Manhattan cos LIC is now full of tall buildings. But should be possible from Connecticut.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 24
Remember that overturning #RoeVsWade isn't the end for them. It's the beginning.
70% Americans support some form of gun control as well as legal access to abortions.

The conservative court has issued two decisions that go against what 70% of the country believes.

This is not going to end well for conservatives in the long run.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 24
The longer Shinde & his gang stay away from their posts and Maharashtra keeps functioning as usual, the more he is showing their irrelevance in the scheme of things. Unless he's planning to run a government in exile, his only endgame is to return ASAP.
Coups are famously quick! It's now 4 days and he's still hiding far away and posting the same blah talking points over and over. Meanwhile Uddhav is saying something new everyday and taking control of the narrative. Sitting on home turf taunting Shinde's cowardice.
Machismo is big in the Sena. And Shinde isn't exactly oozing that, first running away to Surat and now hiding in Guwahati.

If he has a following, it is absent on the streets, except surreptitiously putting up pro Shinde banners.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 24
The film did elevate Dighe from one of Bal T's lieutenants to his near equal. In this ongoing drama, so many of the Shinde people are mentioning "Balasaheb and Anand Dighe" as equals in their departed leaders.

Which is necessary for Shinde to supplant the Thackeray name.
If you know the Sena, this "my Hindutva is the real Hindutva" competition is hilarious!

Not one of them is into Hindutva the way the sangh & Modi & his coterie view Hindutva. Not Uddhav, Shinde, Raj, Aditya, no one.

They know that Hindutva is incompatible with Maharashtra.
It is one thing to jump on the Ayodhya bandwagon and get some credit for the temple, which is more of a majoritarian win for them than anything truly spiritual.

But in 2022, Hindutva is expanding into all spheres of life. Maharashtra is not a good fit for that level Hindutva.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(