Green #Hydrogen Task Force:
Action plan by hydrogen industry, supported by @RockyMtnInst: 👇
- Imported green H2 could be cheaper than domestically produced grey or blue H2 through to 2030
- need of €20 to €30 billion near-term market and first-mover support by 2030 1/9
While green H2 is currently competitive with grey and blue H2 produced with natural gas (see Exhibit 4 above), green H2 fuel is still more expensive in direct competition with fuels like natural gas, crude oil, and coal, which it will displace across several sectors.
2/9
"The EU ETS price is projected to rise from €80/tonne (2022 average) up to €140/tonne by 2030. Pricing trends that will determine market risk level for green hydrogen are depicted in Exhibit 5." 3/9
"Rapid scale-up would benefit from current high energy prices, but still, approximately €10 billion would be needed to offset market risk against direct competing fuels — like natural gas, crude oil, and coal — and land 15 Mtpa (500 TWh) of green H2 imports in DE by 2030" 4/9
"Collective first-mover risk – i.e., the required level of investment to keep all existing production capacity competitive with falling market prices – could build up as suppliers invest in the scale of assets required to deliver targeted levels" of green H2 to DE by 2030. 5/9
"Ultimately, first-mover risk will be eliminated as the green hydrogen market matures. Exhibit 11 illustrates in further detail how maximum first-mover risk for each new class of assets will evolve until first-mover risk is mitigated for the 2030 asset class" 6/9
"Investing €20 billion to €30 billion between now and
2030 on economic support to offset market risk (€10 billion to €20 billion) and first-mover risk (€8 billion to €10 billion) would unlock up to 10x more capital expenditure for industrial development" 7/9
The idea behind this study is that future hydrogen demand is highly uncertain and we don’t want to spend tens of billions of euros to repurpose a network which won’t be needed. For instance, hydrogen in ground transport is a hotly debated topic cleanenergywire.org/news/climate-t… (2/17)
Similar things can be said about heat. 40% of today’s industrial natural gas use in the EU goes to heat below 100°C and therefore is within range of electric heat pumps – whose performance factors far exceed 100%. (3/17)