(1/3) Most Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from their remaining defensive positions in the Donbas city of Sieverodonetsk. In April 2022, Russia revised its immediate campaign plan from aiming to occupy the majority of Ukraine, to a more focused offensive in the Donbas.
(2/3) Russiaβs capture of the city is a significant achievement within this reduced objective. The settlement was a major industrial centre and it occupies a strategic position on the Siverskyi Donets River.
(3/3) However, it is only one of several challenging objectives Russia will need to achieve to occupy the whole of the Donbas region. These include advancing on the major centre of Kramatorsk and securing the main supply routes to Donetsk city.
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(1/5) Ukraine is likely re-configuring its defence of the Sieverodonetsk-Lysychansk sector, as Russian armoured units continue to make creeping gains on the southern edge of the build up area.
(2/5) Since the start of June, the Russian high command has highly likely removed several Generals from key operational command roles in the war in Ukraine.
(1/6)
Ukrainian forces have announced that the pilot of a Russian Su-25 FROGFOOT ground attack aircraft shot down on 17 June was captured shortly afterwards.
(2/6)
The pilot has confessed to being a former Russian air force Major, who had taken employment as a Wagner military contractor and had flown several missions during the conflict.
(1/3)
Since 19 June, Russian forces have highly likely advanced over 5km towards the southern approaches of the Donbas city of Lysychansk.
(2/3)
Some Ukrainian units have withdrawn, probably to avoid being encircled. Russiaβs improved performance in this sector is likely a result of recent unit reinforcement and heavy concentration of fire.
Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large number of reserve units to the Donbas.
(2 of 5)
The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine since 25 March.
(2/7) On 17 June 2022, Ukrainian forces claimed their first successful use of Western-donated Harpoon anti-ship missiles to engage Russian maritime forces.
(3/7) The target of the attack was almost certainly the Russian naval tug Spasatel Vasily Bekh, which was delivering weapons and personnel to Snake Island in the north-western Black Sea.
(1/6) Russian ground and tactical air operations have remained focussed on the central Donbas sector over the weekend.
(2/6) In the conflict to date, Russiaβs air force has underperformed. Its failure to consistently deliver air power is likely one of the most important factors behind Russiaβs very limited campaign success.