Igor Girkin publishes his view of the Ukraine frontline situation in the morning of 27 June. Full detailed text is available on the website, the general conclusions are in the thread below 🧵:
1) The protracted battle of the “Second (Concrete) Stage of the SMO” is gradually ending.
Whether it will end with an operational pause, or will immediately move into the “Battle for the initiative” (“the effective stage” announced by Kadyrov) - I won’t be guessing, but I still expect that this battle will start outside of Donbas.
The current battle is ending with tactical successes of RF AF, but strategically, in general it is unsuccessful since by the 5th month of SMO the group of UAF in Donbas is still not defeated, likewise it was not pushed out of the majority of its positions.
2) The defeat of UAF in the battle for Severodonetsk on one hand, and the failure of the strategic operation to liberate Donbas by RF AF on the other has already lead to the further increase of military supplies for UAF from the “dear western partners” (not mine).
In July-August a lot will be decided after deployment of reserves from both sides. The time is working both against the so-called “Ukraine” and the RF. But against the RF, the time is working harder.
Especially considering how the Russian political authorities seduced by local (and very expensive) successes are critically slowly realising the necessity of putting the country’s economy onto “war rails”.
A very curious incident occurred for Russians in the Pokrovsk direction. We've all heard when Russians send specialists like UAV operators and tankmen into meat assaults. In this case, one operator recorded a video before his death... 1/
In the video, he accused his regiment commander "Zloy" of disbanding their long-range UAV unit, drug trafficking, and failing to cause damage to the Ukrainian Armed Forces following intelligence data provided by the same UAV operators.
2/
The video states that it will be published in the event of death. The man, called "Goodwin", was killed in an assault alongside his colleagues without supplies, maps, or any equipment. He warned about this in text messages to other Russians, and asked for help with transfer.
Yesterday morning, another assault on the farm was repulsed in the area of Novomikhailivka village. Russians have been trying to assault this farm and a cemetery every day for months now to gain a foothold for the assault of the village itself. Below: drone follows a Russian vehicle trying to escape.
Assaults and bombings are intense. On one day, Russians sent 64 FPV-drones at the village. Every day it is shelled with artillery, and bombed with 4-8 guided airbombs and KABs. Below: Ukrainian positions under intense shelling.
To say Russians are having it easy would be wrong. They're facing extreme losses. As a Ukrainian soldier tells me, there are no more Storm-Z units in this direction - they ran out. It is the regular army assaulting now, and they’re replenished weekly. Photo: the farm under assault.
Russian mobik's family is starving at home due to lack of payments while he's on the frontline. He reveals this in a call intercepted and published by GUR.
In the undated call, the man talks about his arguments with the leadership who are failing to process monthly salaries for the mobiks.
As a result, his wive has to live off the credit card, raking up a huge bill.
Massive delays in payments for the Russian soldiers have been reported throughout the whole war.
Russia opened a criminal case against Colonel of GRU Vladimir Kvachkov, a close Girkin's ally and a member of the "Angry Patriots Club", accusing him of discrediting the Russian Armed Forces.
It is a notable case as Kvachkov is well-known in "patriotic" and "nationalist" circles in Russia, he is reasonably respected among rashists.
He was trialled for his "anti-liberal" attacks and even an attempt to assassinate a senior Russian official Anatoly Chubais in the previous two decades.
A somber celebration by Prigozhin of Bakhmut finally "falling".
He and the Russians know at what cost this and all recent advances came. Whether the ruins of the city stay with them for much longer is another question.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Pyotr Verzilov published footage of urban battles in Bakhmut, indicating that fighting didn't stop for a minute.
But I doubt Russians will be announcing the capture of Bakhmut a second time, so some conclusions can be made.
The situation seems similar to Soledar when Russia claimed the city, and Ukrainian forces continued steadily holding the frontline and falling back to more comfortable combat positions with no breakthroughs, costing Russia dearly.
Gazprom's PMC unit Potok [Stream] is reported to have conflicts with Wagner. Potok fighters complain to Putin, they were attached to OO Redut and sent to replace Wagner's positions, but were forced to retreat under the AFU pressure. For this, Wagner threatened them with shooting.
Here, a Wagner mercenary talks aggressively about Potok, accusing them of cowardice and abandoning weapons and positions. Calling them a Goluboy Potok [Blue Stream], most likely to characterise them as homosexuals ["Goluboy" refers to homosexuality in Russian]. DRO="Dyra" [Hole].
Here a captured mercenary from Potok also explains that Gazprom created a number of other units such as Fakel [Torch] and Plamya [Flame] which were attached to the Ministry of Defence. He was dumped on the battlefield by his comrades and was lucky enough to reach 🇺🇦 positions.