Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 27 14 tweets 5 min read
They probably can't. China just doesn't produce enough precision manufacturing tools. Russian military industry including the missiles industry, uses German tools, German cutting fluids, German software (Siemens & Heidenhain). I have no evidence of the latter being disconnected
Just a single example. This is a Russian submarine-launched ballistic missile R-29RMU Sineva. It's a new weapon of the Putin's era. Being produced after the Soviet collapse, it is fully import dependent. It is produced on the Krasmash (Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant)
Theoretically the ballistic missile production is secret. Still, you can get a lot from the open sources. Like the magazine of the Krasmash factory krasm.com/Files/3053-Sin…. Look at the Page 5 where among many new innovations they discuss the cutting fluids by ZET-Chemie company
The Krasmash magazine Sineva doesn't name all producers of tools, appliances, etc the factory is using. But the new cutting fluids were apparently provided by the German Zet-Chemie company, and it was in 2017, well after Crimea

zet-chemie.de/en/
Consider this article from 2017:

"Germany and Czechia help Russia to build ballistic missiles Sarmat and Sineva that can deliver the nuclear warheads"

There used to be more articles like this, most were cleansed. This is one of the few remaining

rucompromat.com/articles/germa…
Anonymous authors of the article could draw quite a lot of info about the Russian technological import from the boastful programs on the Russian TV. Here you see the VLC 4000 ATC+C1 machine on the ballistic missiles producing Krasmash plant

Look 0:07

VLC 4000 ATC+C1 is produced by the Czech company TDZ Turn, a partner of Siemens
On their website the TDZ Turn claims that their "market share is middle between Europe and Russia"
Although it might be difficult to track the exact way of how did the Czech machine get to the Russian ballistic missiles producing Krasmash plant, we can make an educated guess

On their website, they list "КР Пром" company among their partners tdz-turn.com/cs/profil-spol…
And the КР Пром company is a supplier of the Krasmash ballistic missiles producing plant

Most probably the TDZ Turn company would sell their machine tools to the Russian military factories, including the Krasmash through the "КР Пром" distributor

synapsenet.ru/searchorganiza…
Key facts to understand the Russian military industry:

1) Most of it is dual use. It can produce both civilian and military goods. It was designed this way by Stalin
2) Soviet technological chains died in 1990s and couldn't be revived
3) Putin's rearmament fully relied on import
Which import it was? Well, regarding the import of components that's complicated. Pretty much from everywhere. Some divergence happened after 2014 when some countries (US) tried to reduce that import, and others (France) worked hard to increase it

investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/eu-sta…
But the situation with the import of machine tools is simpler (it's a very geographically concentrated industry) and with the software - the simplest of all. It seems to be provided mostly by just two German companies. And there's no evidence of it being disconnected. End of 🧵
PS Two German companies supplying the software for the Russian military industry are Siemens and Heidenhain

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kamil Galeev

Kamil Galeev Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kamilkazani

Jun 28
Siemens (and others) has been building the Putin's war machine since the 2000s. They caused a massive harm *before* this war started, and played a key role in making it possible. Now they must be pressured to undo the already inflicted harm rather than "put deliveries on hold"
Undoing the already caused harm, will hurt their financial interests. They have no incentive do undo it. If Russia sees any sabotage from the Germans, they will lose the Russian military industry as a customer forever. And the military consumes 85% of all machine tools in Russia
German companies have no financial incentive to undo the already caused harm. They have every reason to please the Russian military industry, to return to this market after the war. They have incentive to avoid any moves the Russian military would perceive as the backstabbing
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:

"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"

rbc.ru/business/15/10…
A source from Gazprom commented to the RBC:

"Typically contracts for compressor maintenance include the possibility of fixing its malfunctioning or turning it off remotely"

He made it clear that the old American or Swiss produced Gazprom compressors also risk being disconnected Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 24
Not quite. Almost all KIA in Ukraine are peasants/untermenschen so their lives are not worth a dime. With Afghanistan it was different. In 1985 the Party made a fatal mistake by starting to draft (and send to Afghanistan) college students, even from the most prestigious unis
That was suicidal. Previously good families could save their kids from the army sending them to college. In a college they could finish a military minor (военная кафедра) so even if you do get into the army, you serve as an officer. Which is way better than serving as a private
In 1985 this door was closed. Everyone could be drafted and sent to Afghanistan, even the golden kids from the Moscow State University. Suicidal decision. Yeah, peasants families may not want their kids to die. But the fuck they're gonna do? With cultural elites it's different
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23
Yes, rulers of Iran - Safavids, Afsharids, Qajars, constantly fought with Dagestanis. But modern Dagestanis do *not* associate those dynasties with Iran. They associate them with Azerbaijan

"Qajars"/"horse shit" are common Lezgin slurs against Azeri rather than Persian people
"Horse shit" is a disparaging term against the equestrian culture that ruled Iran and would just come burn and pillage the Caucasus. And in North Caucasian minds it is the Azeri who are the continuation of that culture. Azeri are "Qajars"
Nowadays we are used to perceive Iran as a Persian state. But for the period of 1000 to almost 1900 there is very little truth in it. It was usually nomads-ruled, most typically Turkic-nomads-ruled. Nader Shah could literally call a Qurultai to work out an important decision
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22
How can Putin make stuff?

Chinese-Russian alignment is much like Schroedinger's cat. It's alive and dead at the same time. Let me illustrate this on example of the Russian military industry, which contrary to the popular opinion is *not* backed by China. It's backed by Europe🧵
Consider this great article by Vershinin. The West largely lost its industrial warfare capabilities, but Russia did not. Its military strategy is based on capacities to produce lots of missiles and shells. Way more than the US is able to produce

rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Russian missile and artillery centric strategy is possible only due to the superior capacity to mass production. Russia can afford firing so many missiles and shells, because it produces many of them, way more than the US can make

But how is that possible?
Read 58 tweets
Jun 21
Brat-2 and the Russian state cult

The CEO of Russian aerospace (& missiles producing) state company Roskosmos Rogozin published this video in his telegram channel РОГОZИН. It may look weird for foreigners but Russians understand this allusion very well (not a thread)
In his video Rogozin is basically threatening the outer world with the nuclear war, while reading some silly childish sounding poem. For context let's have a look on another video, also from his Telegram channel t.me/rogozin_do. Russian fighters are reading the same poem
Pretty much every modern Russian can easily understand the reference. It is a poem from the Brat-2 movie, where Russian mafia members are departing to the US to take revenge against an American criminal boss
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(