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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Jun 28, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:

"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"

rbc.ru/business/15/10…
A source from Gazprom commented to the RBC:

"Typically contracts for compressor maintenance include the possibility of fixing its malfunctioning or turning it off remotely"

He made it clear that the old American or Swiss produced Gazprom compressors also risk being disconnected Image
Russian military industry works under a much harder secrecy regime and we don't know details of their contracts with equipment suppliers. But what we do know is that Russian industrialists and academicians fear it. Just one example from 2021 cyberleninka.ru/article/n/prob…
In 2021 the CEO of an Institute for the digital intellectual systems A. Zelensky argued that foreign machine tools might have undocumented capacities such as an option to remotely turn it off, establish its geolocation, get an info about the products made with this machine Image
In Zelensky's opinion the CNC dependency is a major weak point of the Russian industry. Almost all CNC systems used in Russia are foreign produced. Which made him fear of the undocumented ways of remote control installed there Image
Do I have direct evidencee that Western, mostly German suppliers could, turn off their equipment on the Russian military plants? That's very difficult to prove. What we do know is that Russian engineers feared that. Fortunately, Germany didn't backstab the Russian army. End of🧵
PS Daily reminder that most of software used on the Russian military plants is either #Siemens or #Heidenhain which are not questioned nearly enough for their role in keeping the Russian military industry afloat

Example from the КБ-1, Almaz-Antey corp. They produce air defense Image
Where I did take it from? Well, from YouTube. Who did post it? Igor Ashurbeyli, the Director for Science of the said КБ-1 and the CEO of the entire Almaz-Antey corporation

Image
I'm absolutely serious. The (ex)CEO of a massive military Almaz-Antey corporation Ashurbeyli is uploading videos with unblurred tools and CNC from a secret facility to his YouTube for likes

That's a powerful counterpoint for "They are not that dumb to do X/Y" arguments. They are Image
The funniest thing is that he originally posted this video on his personal website ashurbeyli.ru but then posted in on YouTube, too

So basically he sacrificed any pretence of secrecy and made non sourcing too easy to get more views, likes, and comments. The end of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a common argument that due process belongs only to citizens

Citizens deserve it, non citizens don’t

And, therefore, can be dealt with extrajudicially

That is a perfectly logical, internally consistent position

Now let’s think through its implications
IF citizens have the due process, and non-citizens don’t

THEN we have two parallel systems of justice

One slow, cumbersome, subject to open discussion and to appeal (due process)

Another swift, expedient, and subject neither to a discussion nor to an appeal (extrajudicial)
And the second one already encompasses tens of millions of non citizens living in the United States, legal and illegal, residents or not.

Now the question would be:

Which system is more convenient for those in power?

Well, the answer is obvious
Read 10 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Apr 5
I have recently read someone comparing Trump’s tariffs with collectivisation in the USSR. I think it is an interesting comparison. I don’t think it is exactly the same thing of course. But I indeed think that Stalin’s collectivisation offers an interesting metaphor, a perspective to think aboutImage
But let’s make a crash intro first

1. The thing you need to understand about the 1920s USSR is that it was an oligarchic regime. It was not strictly speaking, an autocracy. It was a power of few grandees, of the roughly equal rank.
2. Although Joseph Stalin established himself as the single most influential grandee by 1925, that did not make him a dictator. He was simply the most important guy out there. Otherwise, he was just one of a few. He was not yet the God Emperor he would become later.
Read 30 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 16
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 1
Three years of the war have passed

So, let’s recall what has happened so far

The first thing to understand about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia did not plan a war. And it, most certainly, did not plan the protracted hostilities of the kind we are seeing today Image
This entire war is the regime change gone wrong.

Russia did not want a protracted war (no one does). It wanted to replace the government in Kyiv, put Ukraine under control and closely integrate it with Russia

(Operation Danube style) Image
One thing to understand is that Russia viewed Ukraine as a considerable asset. From the Russian perspective, it was a large and populous country populated by what was (again, from the Russian perspective) effectively the same people. Assimilatable, integratable, recruitable Image
Read 32 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 8
Why does Russia attack?

In 1991, Moscow faced two disobedient ethnic republics: Chechnya and Tatarstan. Both were the Muslim majority autonomies that refused to sign the Federation Treaty (1992), insisting on full sovereignty. In both cases, Moscow was determined to quell them. Image
Still, the final outcome could not be more different. Chechnya was invaded, its towns razed to the ground, its leader assassinated. Tatarstan, on the other hand, managed to sign a favourable agreement with Moscow that lasted until Putin’s era.

The question is - why. Image
Retrospectively, this course of events (obliterate Chechnya, negotiate with Tatarstan) may seem predetermined. But it was not considered as such back then. For many, including many of Yeltsin’s own partisans it came as a surprise, or perhaps even as a betrayal.

Let's see why Image
Read 24 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 2
On the origins of Napoleon

The single most important thing to understand regarding the background of Napoleon Bonaparte, is that he was born in the Mediterranean. And the Mediterranean, in the words of Braudel, is a sea ringed round by mountains Image
We like to slice the space horizontally, in our imagination. But what we also need to do is to slice it vertically. Until very recently, projection of power (of culture, of institutions) up had been incomparably more difficult than in literally any horizontal direction. Image
Mountains were harsh, impenetrable. They formed a sort of “internal Siberia” in this mild region. Just a few miles away, in the coastal lowland, you had olives and vineyards. Up in the highland, you could have blizzards, and many feet of snow blocking connections with the world. Image
Read 7 tweets

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