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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Jun 28, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:

"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"

rbc.ru/business/15/10…
A source from Gazprom commented to the RBC:

"Typically contracts for compressor maintenance include the possibility of fixing its malfunctioning or turning it off remotely"

He made it clear that the old American or Swiss produced Gazprom compressors also risk being disconnected Image
Russian military industry works under a much harder secrecy regime and we don't know details of their contracts with equipment suppliers. But what we do know is that Russian industrialists and academicians fear it. Just one example from 2021 cyberleninka.ru/article/n/prob…
In 2021 the CEO of an Institute for the digital intellectual systems A. Zelensky argued that foreign machine tools might have undocumented capacities such as an option to remotely turn it off, establish its geolocation, get an info about the products made with this machine Image
In Zelensky's opinion the CNC dependency is a major weak point of the Russian industry. Almost all CNC systems used in Russia are foreign produced. Which made him fear of the undocumented ways of remote control installed there Image
Do I have direct evidencee that Western, mostly German suppliers could, turn off their equipment on the Russian military plants? That's very difficult to prove. What we do know is that Russian engineers feared that. Fortunately, Germany didn't backstab the Russian army. End of🧵
PS Daily reminder that most of software used on the Russian military plants is either #Siemens or #Heidenhain which are not questioned nearly enough for their role in keeping the Russian military industry afloat

Example from the КБ-1, Almaz-Antey corp. They produce air defense Image
Where I did take it from? Well, from YouTube. Who did post it? Igor Ashurbeyli, the Director for Science of the said КБ-1 and the CEO of the entire Almaz-Antey corporation

Image
I'm absolutely serious. The (ex)CEO of a massive military Almaz-Antey corporation Ashurbeyli is uploading videos with unblurred tools and CNC from a secret facility to his YouTube for likes

That's a powerful counterpoint for "They are not that dumb to do X/Y" arguments. They are Image
The funniest thing is that he originally posted this video on his personal website ashurbeyli.ru but then posted in on YouTube, too

So basically he sacrificed any pretence of secrecy and made non sourcing too easy to get more views, likes, and comments. The end of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 7
Victory has a hundred fathers, defeat is an orphan

Everyone is trying to appropriate the rise of China for their own purposes, like it proves their theory, ideology whatever

No one, however, wants to appropriate the post-Soviets, who, by the way, also made capitalist reforms
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power

That was almost entirely state's job
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets

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