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Jun 28 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:

"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"

rbc.ru/business/15/10…
A source from Gazprom commented to the RBC:

"Typically contracts for compressor maintenance include the possibility of fixing its malfunctioning or turning it off remotely"

He made it clear that the old American or Swiss produced Gazprom compressors also risk being disconnected Image
Russian military industry works under a much harder secrecy regime and we don't know details of their contracts with equipment suppliers. But what we do know is that Russian industrialists and academicians fear it. Just one example from 2021 cyberleninka.ru/article/n/prob…
In 2021 the CEO of an Institute for the digital intellectual systems A. Zelensky argued that foreign machine tools might have undocumented capacities such as an option to remotely turn it off, establish its geolocation, get an info about the products made with this machine Image
In Zelensky's opinion the CNC dependency is a major weak point of the Russian industry. Almost all CNC systems used in Russia are foreign produced. Which made him fear of the undocumented ways of remote control installed there Image
Do I have direct evidencee that Western, mostly German suppliers could, turn off their equipment on the Russian military plants? That's very difficult to prove. What we do know is that Russian engineers feared that. Fortunately, Germany didn't backstab the Russian army. End of🧵
PS Daily reminder that most of software used on the Russian military plants is either #Siemens or #Heidenhain which are not questioned nearly enough for their role in keeping the Russian military industry afloat

Example from the КБ-1, Almaz-Antey corp. They produce air defense Image
Where I did take it from? Well, from YouTube. Who did post it? Igor Ashurbeyli, the Director for Science of the said КБ-1 and the CEO of the entire Almaz-Antey corporation

Image
I'm absolutely serious. The (ex)CEO of a massive military Almaz-Antey corporation Ashurbeyli is uploading videos with unblurred tools and CNC from a secret facility to his YouTube for likes

That's a powerful counterpoint for "They are not that dumb to do X/Y" arguments. They are Image
The funniest thing is that he originally posted this video on his personal website ashurbeyli.ru but then posted in on YouTube, too

So basically he sacrificed any pretence of secrecy and made non sourcing too easy to get more views, likes, and comments. The end of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
Siemens (and others) has been building the Putin's war machine since the 2000s. They caused a massive harm *before* this war started, and played a key role in making it possible. Now they must be pressured to undo the already inflicted harm rather than "put deliveries on hold"
Undoing the already caused harm, will hurt their financial interests. They have no incentive do undo it. If Russia sees any sabotage from the Germans, they will lose the Russian military industry as a customer forever. And the military consumes 85% of all machine tools in Russia
German companies have no financial incentive to undo the already caused harm. They have every reason to please the Russian military industry, to return to this market after the war. They have incentive to avoid any moves the Russian military would perceive as the backstabbing
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 27
They probably can't. China just doesn't produce enough precision manufacturing tools. Russian military industry including the missiles industry, uses German tools, German cutting fluids, German software (Siemens & Heidenhain). I have no evidence of the latter being disconnected
Just a single example. This is a Russian submarine-launched ballistic missile R-29RMU Sineva. It's a new weapon of the Putin's era. Being produced after the Soviet collapse, it is fully import dependent. It is produced on the Krasmash (Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant)
Theoretically the ballistic missile production is secret. Still, you can get a lot from the open sources. Like the magazine of the Krasmash factory krasm.com/Files/3053-Sin…. Look at the Page 5 where among many new innovations they discuss the cutting fluids by ZET-Chemie company
Read 14 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 24
Not quite. Almost all KIA in Ukraine are peasants/untermenschen so their lives are not worth a dime. With Afghanistan it was different. In 1985 the Party made a fatal mistake by starting to draft (and send to Afghanistan) college students, even from the most prestigious unis
That was suicidal. Previously good families could save their kids from the army sending them to college. In a college they could finish a military minor (военная кафедра) so even if you do get into the army, you serve as an officer. Which is way better than serving as a private
In 1985 this door was closed. Everyone could be drafted and sent to Afghanistan, even the golden kids from the Moscow State University. Suicidal decision. Yeah, peasants families may not want their kids to die. But the fuck they're gonna do? With cultural elites it's different
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 23
Yes, rulers of Iran - Safavids, Afsharids, Qajars, constantly fought with Dagestanis. But modern Dagestanis do *not* associate those dynasties with Iran. They associate them with Azerbaijan

"Qajars"/"horse shit" are common Lezgin slurs against Azeri rather than Persian people
"Horse shit" is a disparaging term against the equestrian culture that ruled Iran and would just come burn and pillage the Caucasus. And in North Caucasian minds it is the Azeri who are the continuation of that culture. Azeri are "Qajars"
Nowadays we are used to perceive Iran as a Persian state. But for the period of 1000 to almost 1900 there is very little truth in it. It was usually nomads-ruled, most typically Turkic-nomads-ruled. Nader Shah could literally call a Qurultai to work out an important decision
Read 7 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 22
How can Putin make stuff?

Chinese-Russian alignment is much like Schroedinger's cat. It's alive and dead at the same time. Let me illustrate this on example of the Russian military industry, which contrary to the popular opinion is *not* backed by China. It's backed by Europe🧵
Consider this great article by Vershinin. The West largely lost its industrial warfare capabilities, but Russia did not. Its military strategy is based on capacities to produce lots of missiles and shells. Way more than the US is able to produce

rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Russian missile and artillery centric strategy is possible only due to the superior capacity to mass production. Russia can afford firing so many missiles and shells, because it produces many of them, way more than the US can make

But how is that possible?
Read 58 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 21
Brat-2 and the Russian state cult

The CEO of Russian aerospace (& missiles producing) state company Roskosmos Rogozin published this video in his telegram channel РОГОZИН. It may look weird for foreigners but Russians understand this allusion very well (not a thread)
In his video Rogozin is basically threatening the outer world with the nuclear war, while reading some silly childish sounding poem. For context let's have a look on another video, also from his Telegram channel t.me/rogozin_do. Russian fighters are reading the same poem
Pretty much every modern Russian can easily understand the reference. It is a poem from the Brat-2 movie, where Russian mafia members are departing to the US to take revenge against an American criminal boss
Read 16 tweets

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