Kelley K Profile picture
Jun 28, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ The revised pre-print of the misleading paper used by CDC is now available. Rankings are now lower, as I said they would be. medrxiv.org/content/medrxi…
2/ Note that the authors *changed the time period of the study*, selecting only April 1, 2021 - March 31, 2022 for Covid, comparing that to 2019 deaths, increasing the mortality rates for Covid by choosing the worst 12 month window.
3/ Here's what the table for ages 1-4 looks like now. Notice that accidents, which includes car crashes, drowning, fires/smoke, and other accidental deaths is much larger than Covid. Image
4/ They also added a % of top 10, which is an odd choice IMO. That helps show the scale, but is misleading bc it's not a percentage of all-cause deaths, just a percentage of the top 10. And it's also odd because the Covid deaths are from a different year than the other deaths.
5/ Here are the rankings that were shown on the CDC slide from the earlier version of the pre-print, and the new rankings. Rankings went down for every age group and are out of the top 5 for every group other than 15-19, which includes adults (18 and 19 year olds). Image
6/ Keep in mind that even by manipulating the dates to choose the worst months of Covid they couldn't get Covid to stay in the top 5 for age groups under 15. Is @CDCgov disappointed their big talking point has been officially busted? Will @CDCDirector ever admit it?
7/ Here's the official revision summary from medRxiv. They admitted to the error about not using underlying death data, but they called changing the time period to select the worst 12 month window as "simplifying" the comparison time periods. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
8/ Here is a really helpful side-by-side comparison of the previous version and the revised version of the pre-print so you can see the scope of the changes. (Thanks to @susan_bewley for this!)

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More from @KelleyKga

Feb 14
Apoorva is out with a terrible take in the NYT on the new proposed CDC isolation guidance. It's a very one-sided piece that doesn't include a single expert who supports dropping isolation. She can't stand the idea that we haven't reorganized society around Covid precautions. 1/4 Image
And I'm disappointed to see @JenniferNuzzo acting like Covid is still very different from other respiratory infections. She suggested the CDC could "at least" recommend N95s in lieu of isolation. (People aren't going to do that, and there's no good evidence it would help.) 2/4
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And I've got news for Apoorva and Jay Varma... Most people eschew masks simply because they are unpleasant to wear. It really is that simple. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
Some people still think that Covid is the third or fourth leading cause of death in the US, but that hasn't been true for a while. I thought people could use some more good news as we head into the Thanksgiving weekend! checkyourwork.kelleykga.com/p/leading-caus…
Below are the leading causes of death in the US for rolling 12-month periods since Dec. 2020. (*For the period ending September 2023, rankings for Accidents was adjusted up based on the CDC’s 6-month lag in reporting external causes of death.) Image
Covid deaths have been declining year-over-year and nearing several other causes of death, so the ranking may drop further in coming months. (Suicide data is only displayed through April due to the 6-month lag in reporting external causes of death.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5, 2023
Apparently the CDC, under new Director Mandy Cohen, has decided that the problem with their guidance is that it's too *precise* and not simple enough! AYFKM?!? They can't even handle nuance that elderly cancer patients are more at risk from Covid than healthy teen boys! (1/6)
In their infinite wisdom, they decided to lean further into emotional appeals about **protecting grandma** to "counterbalance...concerns around fear mongering." DO THESE LUNATICS EVEN HEAR THEMSELVES?!? (2/6) Image
And if that wasn't bad enough, they previewed some of their upcoming social media campaign. It's more insane "stop the spread" propaganda that tells people to "DO EVERYTHING" - including vaccines, testing, and masks! Is @CDCgov not aware that it's 2023?!? I'm losing it. (3/6) Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14, 2023
Gavin Yamey was happy to dunk on this random account for being a Covid minimizer, but somehow left out that the number cited is a huge overstatement of pediatric Covid deaths in 2020 (it's actually ~200). Is he ok letting people believe that Covid was that deadly to kids?
Of course, as a well-known scientist at a respected institution, you'd expect him to delete his tweet sharing incorrect death counts and update his followers once he's presented with accurate data from CDC, right?
Nope! Not only did he leave his tweet up after I replied with the right data, he made another tweet to mock a different person with a small following who replied saying the number wasn't right. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11, 2023
Infuriating, and more proof that @DrEricDing intentionally lies about Covid data to stoke fear. He got a @CommunityNotes for the tweet below, then deleted his tweet and reposted it the next day with the same erroneous "hospitalization rate".

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Saying that "~15% needing hospitalization" grossly misrepresents the hospitalization data in England for BA.2.86. As @kallmemeg explains, the UK report explicitly warned against doing this, because most sequencing is done in hospitals. Image
EFD knows this caveat about this data, because it was very clear in the report, AND IN THE COMMUNITY NOTE HE RECEIVED. But he purposely deleted his tweet, so the note would not be visible, and then reposted the exact same lie. Appalling behavior - esp. from an "epidemiologist."
Read 4 tweets

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