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Kelley K Profile picture
@KelleyKga
Jun 28, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
1/ The revised pre-print of the misleading paper used by CDC is now available. Rankings are now lower, as I said they would be. medrxiv.org/content/medrxi…
2/ Note that the authors *changed the time period of the study*, selecting only April 1, 2021 - March 31, 2022 for Covid, comparing that to 2019 deaths, increasing the mortality rates for Covid by choosing the worst 12 month window.
3/ Here's what the table for ages 1-4 looks like now. Notice that accidents, which includes car crashes, drowning, fires/smoke, and other accidental deaths is much larger than Covid. Image
4/ They also added a % of top 10, which is an odd choice IMO. That helps show the scale, but is misleading bc it's not a percentage of all-cause deaths, just a percentage of the top 10. And it's also odd because the Covid deaths are from a different year than the other deaths.
5/ Here are the rankings that were shown on the CDC slide from the earlier version of the pre-print, and the new rankings. Rankings went down for every age group and are out of the top 5 for every group other than 15-19, which includes adults (18 and 19 year olds). Image
6/ Keep in mind that even by manipulating the dates to choose the worst months of Covid they couldn't get Covid to stay in the top 5 for age groups under 15. Is @CDCgov disappointed their big talking point has been officially busted? Will @CDCDirector ever admit it?
7/ Here's the official revision summary from medRxiv. They admitted to the error about not using underlying death data, but they called changing the time period to select the worst 12 month window as "simplifying" the comparison time periods. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
8/ Here is a really helpful side-by-side comparison of the previous version and the revised version of the pre-print so you can see the scope of the changes. (Thanks to @susan_bewley for this!)
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More from @KelleyKga

Kelley K Profile picture
Jun 18
This study was finally published yesterday, and one of the first data points seems implausible, in a way that suggests there may be faulty data involved. The study claims 46% (159/343) of the cohort hospitalized with Covid and acute kidney injury (AKI) in 2020 was fully vaccinated?!?

BUT the Covid vaccine rollout in the US began on Dec. 14, with second doses beginning Dec. 28, so virtually all of the 2020 hospitalizations should have been unvaccinated or partially vaccinated at best (and they say the 94 partially vaxxed patients were excluded from the study).

How does this make sense at all? Did nobody notice this during peer review?!?
(More details and a link to the study in the thread below.)
According to the study, "the median time between vaccination and COVID-19 diagnosis was 206 days (IQR 50 - 314 days)."

That would mean just 25% of people were vaccinated less than 50 days before infection, which again, doesn't match with their data, which shows 34% of the vaxxed cohort were hospitalized in 2020 (159/467).
And fwiw, the paper also includes a sentence fragment that I guess nobody caught. Image
Read 6 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Jun 3, 2024
Fauci today: "The first iteration of vaccines did have an effect, not 100%, not a high effect, they did prevent infection, and subsequently, obviously, transmission. However, it's important to point out something that we did not know early on that became evident as the months went by, is that the durability of protection against infection, and hence, transmission was relatively limited."

Oh really? Let's check what scientists actually knew about the first iteration of vaccines...🧵

In Dec. 2020, the FDA said there wasn't evidence it prevents transmission and no data about how long protection would last.

In Feb. 2020, the CDC said "protection may wear off after 3 months." Image
In March/April 2021:
- The CDC said vaccinated people were "potentially less likely to transmit."
- Fauci said whether or not vaccinated people could transmit was "a question of extreme importance."
- A CDC spokesperson said "The evidence [on transmission] isn't clear..."Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Mar 14, 2024
Back in January, I complimented the CDC on some reassuring messaging about Covid, that it turns out was the work of @dr_kkjetelina and a team she's working with at CDC. I took the opportunity to reach out to Dr. Jetelina to see if she'd be open to talking with me. 🧵
I'd admittedly been critical of Dr. Jetelina during Covid, but I appreciated that she was trying to improve communication and rebuild trust, and I wanted to share my perspective as someone who had lost trust in public health. We ended up having a very interesting Zoom call!
Dr. Jetelina suggested we write a brief article together about some of what we talked about in our call, and I eagerly took her up on the opportunity. This just touches on some of the topics we covered in our call. checkyourwork.kelleykga.com/cp/142609262
Read 6 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Feb 20, 2024
Laurie Garrett is most certainly NOT "the country's leading public health journalist." 🤦‍♀️
Read 7 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Feb 14, 2024
Apoorva is out with a terrible take in the NYT on the new proposed CDC isolation guidance. It's a very one-sided piece that doesn't include a single expert who supports dropping isolation. She can't stand the idea that we haven't reorganized society around Covid precautions. 1/4 Image
And I'm disappointed to see @JenniferNuzzo acting like Covid is still very different from other respiratory infections. She suggested the CDC could "at least" recommend N95s in lieu of isolation. (People aren't going to do that, and there's no good evidence it would help.) 2/4
Image
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And I've got news for Apoorva and Jay Varma... Most people eschew masks simply because they are unpleasant to wear. It really is that simple. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Nov 22, 2023
Some people still think that Covid is the third or fourth leading cause of death in the US, but that hasn't been true for a while. I thought people could use some more good news as we head into the Thanksgiving weekend! checkyourwork.kelleykga.com/p/leading-caus…
Below are the leading causes of death in the US for rolling 12-month periods since Dec. 2020. (*For the period ending September 2023, rankings for Accidents was adjusted up based on the CDC’s 6-month lag in reporting external causes of death.) Image
Covid deaths have been declining year-over-year and nearing several other causes of death, so the ranking may drop further in coming months. (Suicide data is only displayed through April due to the 6-month lag in reporting external causes of death.) Image
Read 4 tweets

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