According to the Russian news agency RIA, the Trans-Siberian railway connecting Moscow to the Far East was blocked today due to 19 cars derailed between Sgibeevo and Bolshaya Omutnaya. Some attribute this accident to the sabotage, but that's unconfirmed
While the best thing Westerners can do to undermine the Russian war effort would be pressuring German companies, especially Siemens and Heidenhain to disconnect their equipment on the Russian military factories, the best thing Russians can do is railway sabotage
Daily reminder that the German producers do not give the Russian consumers full control over their tools, so these tools require constant maintenance. Russians are not allowed to interfere much into their functioning, changing key parameters, etc
Russian military industry is fully dependent upon the German machine tools and especially on CNCs. Even "Russian"/"Belarusian" tools have German CNCs. And judging from the Russian technologists' forums, German producers do not give Russians full control over these machines
There is no evidence that the German machine tools on the Russian military plants stopped working. Considering that the German producers are reported to have control over these tools, their role in keeping the Russian war machine afloat right now must be investigated
There are strong indications that the German machine tool producers are keeping the Russian military industry afloat. It's not enough to halt new deliveries. If they continue to do maintenance for any tools they have already delivered by 2022, they are complicit in Putin's war
If you fear the Putin's nukes, keep in mind that ballistic missile production depends on:
1. German CNCs 2. German software 3. German cutting fluids
It were the German companies that made Putin's rearmament possible. Now he can't produce missiles without their daily assistance
Russian military industry is fully reliant on the technological import from Germany. It can't be the other way. By the time Putin took power, Soviet machine tool industry deteriorated so much, it couldn't be resurrected. So Putin's military industry simply switched to import
That gives some context for otherwise "strange" behaviour of German public officials. Consider Scholz's reaction on a journalist question on whether he could specify the safety guarantees G7 can give to Ukraine:
- Yes, I could (laughter)
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck
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What is happening in Uzbekistan is very serious. Amendments proposed into the Chapter XVII of the Uzbekistan Constitution are viewed as highly provocative by the Karakalpaks. If they are really passed, this may exacerbate the situation even further, escalating the conflict
International community should dissuade President Mirziyoyev from amending the Chapter XVII of the Constitution before it's too late. Deescalating the conflict now is absolutely possible and relatively easy. In a week or two it may be too late, if a lot of blood is shed by then
Uzbekistan is lingustically heterogenous. Uzbeks are Karluks (like Uyghurs). Karakalpaks are Kipchaks (like Kazakhs). Khwarezmians are Oghuz (like Turks in Turkey). Almost all rural population is Turkic, but cities like Bukhara or Samarkand still have many Persian speakers
Unrests in Nukus, Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan used to be an autonomous republic in Uzbekistan. In 1990s they proclaimed sovereignity with the right of secession. Now Uzbekistan decided to abolish it autonomy, escalating the conflict.
It's time to talk about Central Asia🧵
First thing to understand about Central Asia is that modern borders have no correlation at all with borders of historic regions. For example the historic region of Khorasan that played a key (or the key?) role in Medieval Islamic history is now divided between a number of states
Modern nation states very much exaggerate their primordiality. In case of Uzbekistan we understand this. In case of Iran we don't. And yet, in my view Islamic authors didn't talk about Iran nearly as much as about Khorasan. The former was an abstraction, the latter - a reality
Great article. I could only add that we tend to judge Russian capacities based on Soviet performance. Which may be wrong. In many respects modern Russia may be closer to the pre-1917 Russian empire. That's why it avoids a mass mobilization - too risky
Chadayev, a pro Putin and pro war Russian politician, makes exactly this argument when discussing the hesitancy if Kremlin. Russia is too much like the Russian empire. Small wars like in Poland, Caucasus, Turkestan are ok. Because very few troops actually fight there
But. If you do a mass mobilization, you:
1. Forcefully put millions in the movement 2. Give them arms
No matter how advantageous it is military wise, politics wise it can destroy your all socio political structure. As it did in 1917
This day was quite eventful for Vladimir Mau, the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. On the bright side, he was reelected to the board of Gazprom as an independent director. On the dark side he was arrested (not a thread)
The University of РАНХиГС (RANEPA) has a special place in the Russian system of power. While the Higher School of Economics has been traditionally training the Western style expertocracy ("evidence based approach") for the Kremlin, the RANEPA would train the actual leadership
Disclaimer: That is not to devalue the RANEPA. When it comes to the economics, social sciences, humanities, Higher School of Economics was mostly about the intellectual import from the West (not math, math is *really* good). But otherwise there's not much original thought there
Siemens (and others) has been building the Putin's war machine since the 2000s. They caused a massive harm *before* this war started, and played a key role in making it possible. Now they must be pressured to undo the already inflicted harm rather than "put deliveries on hold"
Undoing the already caused harm, will hurt their financial interests. They have no incentive do undo it. If Russia sees any sabotage from the Germans, they will lose the Russian military industry as a customer forever. And the military consumes 85% of all machine tools in Russia
German companies have no financial incentive to undo the already caused harm. They have every reason to please the Russian military industry, to return to this market after the war. They have incentive to avoid any moves the Russian military would perceive as the backstabbing
Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:
"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"