Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 30, 2022 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This day was quite eventful for Vladimir Mau, the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. On the bright side, he was reelected to the board of Gazprom as an independent director. On the dark side he was arrested (not a thread) Image
The University of РАНХиГС (RANEPA) has a special place in the Russian system of power. While the Higher School of Economics has been traditionally training the Western style expertocracy ("evidence based approach") for the Kremlin, the RANEPA would train the actual leadership Image
Disclaimer: That is not to devalue the RANEPA. When it comes to the economics, social sciences, humanities, Higher School of Economics was mostly about the intellectual import from the West (not math, math is *really* good). But otherwise there's not much original thought there Image
Until recently the Higher School of Economics was viewed as politically heterodox. Unlike most other schools it would defend its students persecuted for protesting rather than kick them out. That's an anomaly. But intellectually and methodologically it was unbearably orthodox
With the RANEPA it was the other way around. Standing very close to the seat of power, they would never afford a deviation from the Kremlin policy. But intellectually it was an oasis of original thought, the *real* thought, that the Higher School of Economics IMHO never was
RANEPA leadership would never quarrel with Kremlin. They were super conformist. Intellectually though they would experiment. Meanwhile, more liberal HSE could argue with Kremlin. Intellectually though it largely mimicked the most recent Western fashion. Nothing original
Why? Good question. May be it all comes to leverage. The RANEPA leverage was its proximity to Kremlin. The HSE leverage was their (perceived) proximity to the West. It was the Brahmin structure that valued its status too much to actually try doing anything interesting or unusual
I studied at the HSE, worked at the RANEPA and could feel the contrast. Being super pro Kremlin and never defending their students the way that the HSE did, research wise the RANEPA was way more open to the unorthodox topics and methods. They were not intellectually futile
HSE grads occupy lots of expert positions in the system of Russian power, mostly in finance and economic policy making. But the RANEPA is way more represented in promoting the actual political leadership. Consider the school of governors
On May 10 Putin fired five governors in one day. Many didn't see any pattern in their dismissal. May be there is none. But there is a pattern in who was appointed at their places. Four out of five finished the school of governors at the RANEPA
Since the School of governors ("Higher School of Public Administration") was founded in 2017, 46 of its grads became governors. That's a massive number, considering that Russia has only 85 regions for the governors to be appointed at
Ok, you may ask. So 4/5 out of the Putin's recent gubernatorial appointees finished the school of governors. Makes sense. But who was the fifth? Who managed to skip the school and still become a governor? Image
Well, that's Roman Busargin, the new governor of Saratov Oblast. He indeed skipped the school of governors, being promoted via another social elevator - the competition "Leaders of Russia" лидерыроссии.рф Image
So what do we see here? We see that theoretically Russia is a federation consisting of regions. Theoretically executive power in a region derives from the mandate of masses, given through elections Image
In practice though you don't become a Russian governor by winning elections. You become one by winning crappy competitions either in the School of Governors or in the Leaders of Russia.

That's how these competitions look like. Jumping into the water from a 7 meters height rock
In Russia the supreme executive power most literally derives from a farcical aquatic ceremony Image
And yet, if power derives from the aquatic ceremony, then the ceremony is real. It is the "mandate of the masses" that is truly farcical. So the question is who made up the ceremony?

We know the answer. Both School of Governors and the Leaders of Russia are run by the same guy Image
The same guy who appointed Putin as the FSB Chief in 1998. End of not a thread

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More from @kamilkazani

Aug 9
There's a subtle point here that 99,999% of Western commentariat is missing. Like, totally blind to. And that point is:

Building a huuuuuuuuuuge dam (or steel plant, or whatever) has been EVERYONE's plan of development. Like absolutely every developing country, no exceptions Image
Almost everyone who tried to develop did it in a USSR-ish way, via prestige projects. Build a dam. A steel plant. A huge plant. And then an even bigger one

And then you run out of money, and it all goes bust and all you have is postapocalyptic ruins for the kids to play in
If China did not go bust, in a way like almost every development project from the USSR to South Asia did, that probably means that you guys are wrong about China. Like totally wrong

What you describe is not China but the USSR, and its copies & emulations elsewhere
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
Victory has a hundred fathers, defeat is an orphan

Everyone is trying to appropriate the rise of China for their own purposes, like it proves their theory, ideology whatever

No one, however, wants to appropriate the post-Soviets, who, by the way, also made capitalist reforms
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power

That was almost entirely state's job
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets

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