Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 30, 2022 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This day was quite eventful for Vladimir Mau, the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. On the bright side, he was reelected to the board of Gazprom as an independent director. On the dark side he was arrested (not a thread) Image
The University of РАНХиГС (RANEPA) has a special place in the Russian system of power. While the Higher School of Economics has been traditionally training the Western style expertocracy ("evidence based approach") for the Kremlin, the RANEPA would train the actual leadership Image
Disclaimer: That is not to devalue the RANEPA. When it comes to the economics, social sciences, humanities, Higher School of Economics was mostly about the intellectual import from the West (not math, math is *really* good). But otherwise there's not much original thought there Image
Until recently the Higher School of Economics was viewed as politically heterodox. Unlike most other schools it would defend its students persecuted for protesting rather than kick them out. That's an anomaly. But intellectually and methodologically it was unbearably orthodox
With the RANEPA it was the other way around. Standing very close to the seat of power, they would never afford a deviation from the Kremlin policy. But intellectually it was an oasis of original thought, the *real* thought, that the Higher School of Economics IMHO never was
RANEPA leadership would never quarrel with Kremlin. They were super conformist. Intellectually though they would experiment. Meanwhile, more liberal HSE could argue with Kremlin. Intellectually though it largely mimicked the most recent Western fashion. Nothing original
Why? Good question. May be it all comes to leverage. The RANEPA leverage was its proximity to Kremlin. The HSE leverage was their (perceived) proximity to the West. It was the Brahmin structure that valued its status too much to actually try doing anything interesting or unusual
I studied at the HSE, worked at the RANEPA and could feel the contrast. Being super pro Kremlin and never defending their students the way that the HSE did, research wise the RANEPA was way more open to the unorthodox topics and methods. They were not intellectually futile
HSE grads occupy lots of expert positions in the system of Russian power, mostly in finance and economic policy making. But the RANEPA is way more represented in promoting the actual political leadership. Consider the school of governors
On May 10 Putin fired five governors in one day. Many didn't see any pattern in their dismissal. May be there is none. But there is a pattern in who was appointed at their places. Four out of five finished the school of governors at the RANEPA
Since the School of governors ("Higher School of Public Administration") was founded in 2017, 46 of its grads became governors. That's a massive number, considering that Russia has only 85 regions for the governors to be appointed at
Ok, you may ask. So 4/5 out of the Putin's recent gubernatorial appointees finished the school of governors. Makes sense. But who was the fifth? Who managed to skip the school and still become a governor? Image
Well, that's Roman Busargin, the new governor of Saratov Oblast. He indeed skipped the school of governors, being promoted via another social elevator - the competition "Leaders of Russia" лидерыроссии.рф Image
So what do we see here? We see that theoretically Russia is a federation consisting of regions. Theoretically executive power in a region derives from the mandate of masses, given through elections Image
In practice though you don't become a Russian governor by winning elections. You become one by winning crappy competitions either in the School of Governors or in the Leaders of Russia.

That's how these competitions look like. Jumping into the water from a 7 meters height rock
In Russia the supreme executive power most literally derives from a farcical aquatic ceremony Image
And yet, if power derives from the aquatic ceremony, then the ceremony is real. It is the "mandate of the masses" that is truly farcical. So the question is who made up the ceremony?

We know the answer. Both School of Governors and the Leaders of Russia are run by the same guy Image
The same guy who appointed Putin as the FSB Chief in 1998. End of not a thread

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More from @kamilkazani

May 2
Fake jobs are completely normal & totally natural. The reason is: nobody understands what is happening and most certainly does not understand why. Like people, including the upper management have some idea of what is happening in an organisation, and this idea is usually wrong.
As they do not know and cannot know causal relations between the input and output, they just try to increase some sort of input, in a hope for a better output, but they do not really know which input to increase.
Insiders with deep & specific knowledge, on the other hand, may have a more clear & definite idea of what is happening, and even certain, non zero degree of understanding of causal links between the input and output

(what kind of input produces this kind of output)
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
There is a common argument that due process belongs only to citizens

Citizens deserve it, non citizens don’t

And, therefore, can be dealt with extrajudicially

That is a perfectly logical, internally consistent position

Now let’s think through its implications
IF citizens have the due process, and non-citizens don’t

THEN we have two parallel systems of justice

One slow, cumbersome, subject to open discussion and to appeal (due process)

Another swift, expedient, and subject neither to a discussion nor to an appeal (extrajudicial)
And the second one already encompasses tens of millions of non citizens living in the United States, legal and illegal, residents or not.

Now the question would be:

Which system is more convenient for those in power?

Well, the answer is obvious
Read 10 tweets
Apr 5
I have recently read someone comparing Trump’s tariffs with collectivisation in the USSR. I think it is an interesting comparison. I don’t think it is exactly the same thing of course. But I indeed think that Stalin’s collectivisation offers an interesting metaphor, a perspective to think aboutImage
But let’s make a crash intro first

1. The thing you need to understand about the 1920s USSR is that it was an oligarchic regime. It was not strictly speaking, an autocracy. It was a power of few grandees, of the roughly equal rank.
2. Although Joseph Stalin established himself as the single most influential grandee by 1925, that did not make him a dictator. He was simply the most important guy out there. Otherwise, he was just one of a few. He was not yet the God Emperor he would become later.
Read 30 tweets
Mar 16
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
Three years of the war have passed

So, let’s recall what has happened so far

The first thing to understand about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia did not plan a war. And it, most certainly, did not plan the protracted hostilities of the kind we are seeing today Image
This entire war is the regime change gone wrong.

Russia did not want a protracted war (no one does). It wanted to replace the government in Kyiv, put Ukraine under control and closely integrate it with Russia

(Operation Danube style) Image
One thing to understand is that Russia viewed Ukraine as a considerable asset. From the Russian perspective, it was a large and populous country populated by what was (again, from the Russian perspective) effectively the same people. Assimilatable, integratable, recruitable Image
Read 32 tweets
Feb 8
Why does Russia attack?

In 1991, Moscow faced two disobedient ethnic republics: Chechnya and Tatarstan. Both were the Muslim majority autonomies that refused to sign the Federation Treaty (1992), insisting on full sovereignty. In both cases, Moscow was determined to quell them. Image
Still, the final outcome could not be more different. Chechnya was invaded, its towns razed to the ground, its leader assassinated. Tatarstan, on the other hand, managed to sign a favourable agreement with Moscow that lasted until Putin’s era.

The question is - why. Image
Retrospectively, this course of events (obliterate Chechnya, negotiate with Tatarstan) may seem predetermined. But it was not considered as such back then. For many, including many of Yeltsin’s own partisans it came as a surprise, or perhaps even as a betrayal.

Let's see why Image
Read 24 tweets

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