Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 30 18 tweets 5 min read
This day was quite eventful for Vladimir Mau, the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. On the bright side, he was reelected to the board of Gazprom as an independent director. On the dark side he was arrested (not a thread) Image
The University of РАНХиГС (RANEPA) has a special place in the Russian system of power. While the Higher School of Economics has been traditionally training the Western style expertocracy ("evidence based approach") for the Kremlin, the RANEPA would train the actual leadership Image
Disclaimer: That is not to devalue the RANEPA. When it comes to the economics, social sciences, humanities, Higher School of Economics was mostly about the intellectual import from the West (not math, math is *really* good). But otherwise there's not much original thought there Image
Until recently the Higher School of Economics was viewed as politically heterodox. Unlike most other schools it would defend its students persecuted for protesting rather than kick them out. That's an anomaly. But intellectually and methodologically it was unbearably orthodox
With the RANEPA it was the other way around. Standing very close to the seat of power, they would never afford a deviation from the Kremlin policy. But intellectually it was an oasis of original thought, the *real* thought, that the Higher School of Economics IMHO never was
RANEPA leadership would never quarrel with Kremlin. They were super conformist. Intellectually though they would experiment. Meanwhile, more liberal HSE could argue with Kremlin. Intellectually though it largely mimicked the most recent Western fashion. Nothing original
Why? Good question. May be it all comes to leverage. The RANEPA leverage was its proximity to Kremlin. The HSE leverage was their (perceived) proximity to the West. It was the Brahmin structure that valued its status too much to actually try doing anything interesting or unusual
I studied at the HSE, worked at the RANEPA and could feel the contrast. Being super pro Kremlin and never defending their students the way that the HSE did, research wise the RANEPA was way more open to the unorthodox topics and methods. They were not intellectually futile
HSE grads occupy lots of expert positions in the system of Russian power, mostly in finance and economic policy making. But the RANEPA is way more represented in promoting the actual political leadership. Consider the school of governors
On May 10 Putin fired five governors in one day. Many didn't see any pattern in their dismissal. May be there is none. But there is a pattern in who was appointed at their places. Four out of five finished the school of governors at the RANEPA
Since the School of governors ("Higher School of Public Administration") was founded in 2017, 46 of its grads became governors. That's a massive number, considering that Russia has only 85 regions for the governors to be appointed at
Ok, you may ask. So 4/5 out of the Putin's recent gubernatorial appointees finished the school of governors. Makes sense. But who was the fifth? Who managed to skip the school and still become a governor? Image
Well, that's Roman Busargin, the new governor of Saratov Oblast. He indeed skipped the school of governors, being promoted via another social elevator - the competition "Leaders of Russia" лидерыроссии.рф Image
So what do we see here? We see that theoretically Russia is a federation consisting of regions. Theoretically executive power in a region derives from the mandate of masses, given through elections Image
In practice though you don't become a Russian governor by winning elections. You become one by winning crappy competitions either in the School of Governors or in the Leaders of Russia.

That's how these competitions look like. Jumping into the water from a 7 meters height rock
In Russia the supreme executive power most literally derives from a farcical aquatic ceremony Image
And yet, if power derives from the aquatic ceremony, then the ceremony is real. It is the "mandate of the masses" that is truly farcical. So the question is who made up the ceremony?

We know the answer. Both School of Governors and the Leaders of Russia are run by the same guy Image
The same guy who appointed Putin as the FSB Chief in 1998. End of not a thread

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 30
According to the Russian news agency RIA, the Trans-Siberian railway connecting Moscow to the Far East was blocked today due to 19 cars derailed between Sgibeevo and Bolshaya Omutnaya. Some attribute this accident to the sabotage, but that's unconfirmed Image
While the best thing Westerners can do to undermine the Russian war effort would be pressuring German companies, especially Siemens and Heidenhain to disconnect their equipment on the Russian military factories, the best thing Russians can do is railway sabotage
Daily reminder that the German producers do not give the Russian consumers full control over their tools, so these tools require constant maintenance. Russians are not allowed to interfere much into their functioning, changing key parameters, etc

Example: cccp3d.ru/topic/137434-о… Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28
Siemens (and others) has been building the Putin's war machine since the 2000s. They caused a massive harm *before* this war started, and played a key role in making it possible. Now they must be pressured to undo the already inflicted harm rather than "put deliveries on hold"
Undoing the already caused harm, will hurt their financial interests. They have no incentive do undo it. If Russia sees any sabotage from the Germans, they will lose the Russian military industry as a customer forever. And the military consumes 85% of all machine tools in Russia
German companies have no financial incentive to undo the already caused harm. They have every reason to please the Russian military industry, to return to this market after the war. They have incentive to avoid any moves the Russian military would perceive as the backstabbing
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Nothing would hamper the Russian war efforts more than the disconnection of German machines and software on the military plants. Is it possible? It's difficult to prove. What is easy to prove is that Russian industrialists feared such a backstabbing. Fortunately, they were wrong
The debate on a possibility of disconnection started in 2019. It was triggered by the Austrian LMF forcibly turning off their compressors on the Gazprom facility:

"they just turned them off through the satellite and it all turned into the scrap metal"

rbc.ru/business/15/10…
A source from Gazprom commented to the RBC:

"Typically contracts for compressor maintenance include the possibility of fixing its malfunctioning or turning it off remotely"

He made it clear that the old American or Swiss produced Gazprom compressors also risk being disconnected Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 27
They probably can't. China just doesn't produce enough precision manufacturing tools. Russian military industry including the missiles industry, uses German tools, German cutting fluids, German software (Siemens & Heidenhain). I have no evidence of the latter being disconnected
Just a single example. This is a Russian submarine-launched ballistic missile R-29RMU Sineva. It's a new weapon of the Putin's era. Being produced after the Soviet collapse, it is fully import dependent. It is produced on the Krasmash (Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant)
Theoretically the ballistic missile production is secret. Still, you can get a lot from the open sources. Like the magazine of the Krasmash factory krasm.com/Files/3053-Sin…. Look at the Page 5 where among many new innovations they discuss the cutting fluids by ZET-Chemie company
Read 14 tweets
Jun 24
Not quite. Almost all KIA in Ukraine are peasants/untermenschen so their lives are not worth a dime. With Afghanistan it was different. In 1985 the Party made a fatal mistake by starting to draft (and send to Afghanistan) college students, even from the most prestigious unis
That was suicidal. Previously good families could save their kids from the army sending them to college. In a college they could finish a military minor (военная кафедра) so even if you do get into the army, you serve as an officer. Which is way better than serving as a private
In 1985 this door was closed. Everyone could be drafted and sent to Afghanistan, even the golden kids from the Moscow State University. Suicidal decision. Yeah, peasants families may not want their kids to die. But the fuck they're gonna do? With cultural elites it's different
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23
Yes, rulers of Iran - Safavids, Afsharids, Qajars, constantly fought with Dagestanis. But modern Dagestanis do *not* associate those dynasties with Iran. They associate them with Azerbaijan

"Qajars"/"horse shit" are common Lezgin slurs against Azeri rather than Persian people
"Horse shit" is a disparaging term against the equestrian culture that ruled Iran and would just come burn and pillage the Caucasus. And in North Caucasian minds it is the Azeri who are the continuation of that culture. Azeri are "Qajars"
Nowadays we are used to perceive Iran as a Persian state. But for the period of 1000 to almost 1900 there is very little truth in it. It was usually nomads-ruled, most typically Turkic-nomads-ruled. Nader Shah could literally call a Qurultai to work out an important decision
Read 7 tweets

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