Unrests in Nukus, Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan used to be an autonomous republic in Uzbekistan. In 1990s they proclaimed sovereignity with the right of secession. Now Uzbekistan decided to abolish it autonomy, escalating the conflict.
It's time to talk about Central Asia🧵
First thing to understand about Central Asia is that modern borders have no correlation at all with borders of historic regions. For example the historic region of Khorasan that played a key (or the key?) role in Medieval Islamic history is now divided between a number of states
Modern nation states very much exaggerate their primordiality. In case of Uzbekistan we understand this. In case of Iran we don't. And yet, in my view Islamic authors didn't talk about Iran nearly as much as about Khorasan. The former was an abstraction, the latter - a reality
Second thing to understand about Central Asia that it used to lie on commercial crossroads. Much or even may be most of the trade between East and West Eurasia went by land caravans through Central Asia. The region used to be rich and have geographic comparative advantages
Commercial transactions brought cultural contacts. Just one example. The Qing rulers of China presented themselves differently in their Chinese and Manchu correspondence. In Chinese letters Qianlong showed himself as a "normal" Confucian ruler. In Manchu letters Hongli didn't
That might not be an exaggeration to say that the Manchu served as a secret language of power in the Qing empire until very lately. Only in Manchu which their Chinese subjects couldn't understand, Qing rulers could express their thoughts relatively freely
Manchu script looked nothing like characters. It was an adaptation of Mongol script for the Manchu language commissioned by Nurhaci Khan in late 16th c. Mongol script in its own turn was an adaptation of the Old Uyghur Script for the Mongol language commissioned by Genghis Khan
Old Uyghur script itself ultimately derived from the Aramaic script, through the cultural and religious contacts of the Silk Road. So the Manchu writing system whose knowledge is necessary for understanding the politics of the Qing Empire evolved from a writing system of Levant
Modern discourse is still Eurocentric. When discussing the Silk Road cultural exchange, we focus on Marco Polo, and ignore his contemporary Rabban Sawma, a Beijing Nestorian who travelled to Europe. How did Medieval Paris look for a native of Khanbaliq?
Out of all branches of Christianity, it was Nestorianism, that was the most successful along the Silk Road. Btw: this map is incomplete, it did important conquests in Northern Steppe as well. To my best knowledge, Nestorianism really declined in China only after the Ming ascent
Manichaeism was another faith successful in the Silk Road context. In the early Middle Ages Muslim authors often presumed that China is mostly Manichaean. Manichaeans were overrepresented among the commercial class that Muslim merchants interacted with
13th c Mani shrine, Fujian
Until the late Middle Ages, Central Asia was a vibrant commercial and cultural crossroad, an oasis of cultural, intellectual and scientific life. Then it gradually declined. Why? First of all, the Portuguese found a maritime way to Asia. Dutch, English and French followed soon
Initially the Portuguese maritime shipping was not *that* cheaper than the land shipping through the Silk Road or a combined maritime-land route through the Indian Ocean. So they used violence to monopolise the trade, forcing the Indian Ocean rulers to call for the Ottoman help
But with the time going, maritime freight rates were rapidly decreasing. Very soon neither the old Silk Road nor the new land routes opened by the Russian Empire couldn't really compete with the maritime route. That is a major reason Russians couldn't properly exploit Alaska btw
Another major factor of the decline was the rise of the Safavi empire and the subsequent escalation of the Sunni vs Shia conflict that happened in the 16th c. That's a very complicated story that I honestly don't understand. Still, I'll summarise my POW
In the late Middle Ages, the Islamic heartland was divided between a few empires of sword. They quarrelled with each other, but pretty much all governing elites were:
1. Sunni 2. Turkic or Turkified (e.g. late Mamluks were Circassian, but spoke Cuman and then Anatolian)
Reality may be more complicated though. Even now the line between the Sunni and the Shia may be really blurry. Back then it was even more so. Many Sufi orders, including those that constituted the core of the Ottoman Empire didn't seem to be the orthodox Sunni at all
What is now Iran was largely governed by the Aq Qoyunlu Turcoman and Sunni polity. They quarrelled with the Ottomans, and tried to establish the anti-Ottoman alliance with Venice and the Golden Horde. Still, Sunni
It seems that the Safavids were initially a Sufi and Sunni order, residing in what is now Azerbaijan. But at some point they turned to the Twelver Shiism. In the late 15th Safavid Sheiks rallied the Turcoman tribes and led them to war against their Sunni overlords
Around 1500 Ismail of the Safavid led the Qizilbashi Turcoman tribes to the conquest first of Greater Azerbaijan and then of entire Iran. Iran used to be predominantly Sunni back then. But Ismail forcibly converted it to Shiism (which his own family had only recently adopted)
He immediately got into a war with two Sunni states: the Ottomans to the West and Uzbeks (& also Turkmen tribes, etc) to the East. That was predictable. Sunni Aq Qoyunlu rulers before him fought with the Ottomans, too. But now the war escalated into the existential conflict
Two arch-rivals, the Ottoman Sultan Selim and the Safavid Shah Ismail both pursued nearly genocidal policies. But these cleansings were not ethnic, they were religious. Shia Turcomans were massacred in the Ottoman Empire, Sunni (often Persians) in the Safavid Empire
Painting the Ottoman-Safavid fight as the Turko-Iranian war is madness. Out of two states it was the Ottoman Empire that was more Persianate. Selim wrote poems in Persian, while Ismail - on Azeri. It would be more accurate to paint the Early Safavid Empire as Azeri than Persian
What is important is that
1. The Safavid Empire was locked between the Sunni enemies in the Ottoman Empire and in Central Asia 2. The war quickly spiralled into the existential conflict with both sides soon refusing to view each other as Muslims
At some point at the late 16th c. the Ottomans started the mass enslavement of the Safavid subjects during their expeditions to Iran. Safavids retaliated. Very soon the wars of Safavids both with their Western and Eastern neighbours involved the mass enslavement
That explains why Persians comprised the largest demographic group among early modern Central Asian slaves. By 1600 nobody viewed the Shia Safavid subjects as their fellow Muslims anymore. Turkmens would just laugh in the face of the captives if they tried to use this argument
Now let's at this map again. On the one hand, position of the Safavid Empire looks kinda bad. It is trapped between two existential enemies on the West on to the East. On the other hand, position of the Central Asia may look even worse. It lost its direct contact with Levant
Hypothesis
The Safavid rise circa 1500 largely stopped the Turkic migration from the Inner Asia to the West. Due to the Safavid rise, the Ottoman Empire wouldn't have such an unrestricted supply of new settlers from Turkestan as before. So the Ottoman Empire would have few Turks
Being itself a product of the Turkic migration from the Inner Asia westward, the Ottoman Empire was cut off from the inflow of new Oghuz Turks even before it reached its apogee of power. This may be reason why it had so few Turks and lost its Inner Asian character so quickly
What I find interesting is that this confessionalization of Islamdom happened nearly simultaneously with the confessionalization of Christendom. Shia-Sufi and the Catholic-Protestant split happened almost exactly at the same time. The end of thread
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Not quite. Mau put his signature under a letter in support of this war. May be hesitantly, but he still did it. Regarding @navalny, I am honestly impressed by how much effort international media invest into whitewashing him and his clique
@navalny and his circle share the same imperialist agenda as Putin. Except they are far more consistent Russian ethnonationalists. As a Tatar I find this clique taking power as one of the worst conceivable scenarios of the Russian future. Same for Khodorkovsky @mbk_center
Much of the grudging acceptance of Putin by minorities is motivated by the fear of "liberals" (=consistent Russian ethnonationalists) taking power. Supporting regime change with Navalny taking the throne of Putin is utterly absurd from my perspective
Of course, not. Uzbeks are Karluks. Karakalpaks are Kipchaks, like Kazakhs. I don't think Kazakhstan will involve into the inner conflict in Uzbekistan, at least not now. But if the conflicts last, then nationalist groups within Kazakhstan will absolutely be tempted to do so
Kazakhstan may stay strictly neutral, that's absolutely possible. But if Kazakhs, be it the government or some volunteer forces, enter the conflict then only on the Karakalpak side. If I see Kazakhs forces suppressing Karakalpaks on the Tashkent behalf, I would be very surprised
It's not only about linguistics, it's also about the way of life. Kazakh culture has been heavily shaped by nomadism, while Uzbeks are farmers. Some indentitarian Kazakhs view fellow Karakalpak nomads felling under the power of farmers as a tragedy. Now it's a niche view though
Protests in Nukus, Karakalpakstan continue. Uzbek President Mirziyoyev already suggested not to amend the articles 70, 71, 72, 74, 75 of the constitution on the sovereignty and status of Karakalpakstan. But his forces are suppressing the protests. Emergency declared till August 2
International community should pressure Uzbek President Mirziyoyev to deescalate the situation. Karakalpak minority sees the entire "constitutional reform" project, especially regarding the Chapter XVII as highly provocative. That's a video from the yesterday's protests in Nukus
Keep in mind that Uzbekistan is:
1) Diverse 2) Young 3) Poor
Average age in Uzbekistan (29) is not much higher than in Syria (25). GDP per capita not much higher than in Cambodia. Most of territory is desert so almost everyone lives in a few overcrowded oases and river valleys
If we look at the aggregate figures of the governments' support to Ukraine, including help to the refugees, we can see the same asymmetry. Baltics and East-Central Europe contribute to Ukraine disproportionately, with the economic powerhouses of Western Europe lagging far behind
Illarionov looks at the military aid per capita asymmetry through civilisational senses. Protestant Balts contribute the most. Westerns Slavs + Lithuania, Nordics follow behind
The U.S. contributes almost twice less military aid per capita than other English speaking countries
What is happening in Uzbekistan is very serious. Amendments proposed into the Chapter XVII of the Uzbekistan Constitution are viewed as highly provocative by the Karakalpaks. If they are really passed, this may exacerbate the situation even further, escalating the conflict
International community should dissuade President Mirziyoyev from amending the Chapter XVII of the Constitution before it's too late. Deescalating the conflict now is absolutely possible and relatively easy. In a week or two it may be too late, if a lot of blood is shed by then
Uzbekistan is lingustically heterogenous. Uzbeks are Karluks (like Uyghurs). Karakalpaks are Kipchaks (like Kazakhs). Khwarezmians are Oghuz (like Turks in Turkey). Almost all rural population is Turkic, but cities like Bukhara or Samarkand still have many Persian speakers
Great article. I could only add that we tend to judge Russian capacities based on Soviet performance. Which may be wrong. In many respects modern Russia may be closer to the pre-1917 Russian empire. That's why it avoids a mass mobilization - too risky
Chadayev, a pro Putin and pro war Russian politician, makes exactly this argument when discussing the hesitancy if Kremlin. Russia is too much like the Russian empire. Small wars like in Poland, Caucasus, Turkestan are ok. Because very few troops actually fight there
But. If you do a mass mobilization, you:
1. Forcefully put millions in the movement 2. Give them arms
No matter how advantageous it is military wise, politics wise it can destroy your all socio political structure. As it did in 1917