The Wizard Of Ops Profile picture
Jul 1 4 tweets 2 min read
The whole options market is now different. Puts and calls in $SPX are sold by customers. While we are in a strongly positive vanna zone (meaning we are in the net sold calls zone), any slight IV positive movement will cause selling. (IV up, delta up). How strong is it? #volland
We only have data over the past year, but it is in the 96th percentile. So even slight movements in IV are going to have an outsized impact. How is that possible? we are seeing ultra-lows in skew. Puts and calls are being sold to death, trying to capture that premium.
Prove it? Here's the percentiles in $VIX. Look at allllll that positive vega exposure in $VIX. There is also a ton of gamma exposure as well. That means as $VVIX goes down, $VIX sellers win. However, it also means if $VVIX takes off, $VIX takes off, creating strong moves.
I know $VVIX was this low a lot in 2018, the $VIX was under 15 back then. Spot vol in the mid-high 20s is a different animal with $VIX this low. $VVIX should probably explode to the upside at the slightest hint of news, and can cause a massive downturn. This is new territory.

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More from @WizOfOps

Jul 1
Good Morning! Yesterday I made a comment that was called out by a reader, and I want to clarify... $VVIX has been this low in most of 2018 and prior, that's true. However, back then $VIX was at 10, and had a hard time even getting to 16... seems like forever ago, right?
So the scope of the difference between spot vol and wing vol is a lot more compelling now than it was, even though the static $VVIX was at these levels. It seems like the short-term inverse correlation has been with $VVIX and $SPX, not $VIX. When dealing with large neg. vanna...
it doesnt take much movement in VIX to create that inverse movement in $SPX. $SPX deltas are extremely sensitive to IV right now, so long vol is the right move to make. When randomly hunting through #volland, there seems to be a disconnect between equities and the indices.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 30
Good Morning! Pre-market looking somber, but at least PCE didn't scare everyone into oblivion! Today we get to hear too much about $JHEQX, but it is rolling today and will roll in such a way to prevent any massive delta disruption.

I have been talking a lot about $VVIX...
which declined again yesterday despite a flat market. Again, the last time $VVIX was this low was right before volmaggedon, so this isn't normal. $VVIX is sort of a proxy for $SPX option skew, but represents the $VIX of $VIX options. It is calculated the same way.
But we have a tool to help with how dealers (inversely customers) are positioned with #volland on $VIX! $VIX options are priced differently due to assumed mean reversion and association with $SPX options, so I wouldn't go too far exploring 2nd order greeks here...
Read 5 tweets
Jun 17
Good Morning! This week has had a lot to unpack, especially from a macro and an option positioning standpoint. As you know I am about to release my dashboard, as early as next week. When confirming the calculations are correct, I keep seeing more puts sold than bought.
That has confused me. It has been like this for a while, which on one hand creates a little bit of gamma support underneath current price, but also can blow up the funds that sell those puts if something happens. That leaves the door open for crash risk that we have been seeing.
Further price gravitated to the strikes where that crash risk is occurring. Yesterday it was 3655 as I showed in my tweet. We got there and stayed there. Now, I know I was saying we may end the week at 3975. While a priori, I think if the SNB didn't raise, we get there.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 16
Good Morning! First, trader's workshop today will be at this link:

Yesterday option positioning was the name of the game after FOMC. There were still positioning effects going into today, but European markets had other plans, as futes are back at lows.
Option flows dictate a lot of the market, but the one factor that undermines option positioning is liquidity. Every now and again, a liquidity crunch from even a remote corner of the market can undermine option positioning, and positioning metrics only show how bad it can get.
That is where we are at now, as SNB unexpectedly raised rates, and the EU economy is continually battered by inflation and commodity shortage. Despite supply chain issues and high inflation, the American economy is one of the best positioned in the world right now...
Read 8 tweets
Jun 15
Good Morning! The options market is in a similar state as yesterday... mostly precarious to the downside with a possible drift to the upside. Thing is, liquidity is the name of the game today, and liquidity trumps options. Liquidity is what gives fuel to both customers and MMs
As soon as that CPI data came out liquidity was called into question, so all option supports were virtually meaningless. Bond rates skyrocketed, and the Fed started leaking the consideration of a 75bps increase in response. Funny thing, PPI came in as expected.
When I typically look at inflation expectations, raw material costs are what I look at. PPI is the Fed's preferred measure as well, but consumer surveys and CPI showed hotter inflation. That disconnect says two things to me. First, the consumer is still strong. Jobs are still hot
Read 10 tweets
Jun 14
Looking at today's vanna graph for the end of the week, I'm amazed at how many put sellers kept their short puts ITM. a little bit of hedging commencing at 3400 and in the tail, but that 3900 short put/long call trade by investors (opposite for dealers) is interesting. Image
From a balance standpoint, you can see there's a lot of room below, making that 3700 spike very significant. The liquidation caught option traders off guard. There's still not many bought puts for the rest of the week, just a few DOTM.
Right now 3900 is negating that negative call vanna, which creates a strong positive vanna push up. Unfortunately that is from sold puts, but seems like customers aren't covering sold puts for some reason. A lot of jellyrolls in the 3900-4200 region.
Read 4 tweets

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