Thread by @jmurtazashvili

Violence in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan is shocking, but protests against the government should shock no one.

Poverty in Karakalpakstan is heartbreaking. This about more than poverty.

As we wait to piece together events, we can explore the broader political economy. 🇺🇿

Protests broke out when government shared proposed constitutional changes to the status of Karakalpakstan--an ostensibly autonomous republic in Uzbekistan. According to the draft reforms, it would lose its republican status and become a province.

eurasianet.org/uzbekistans-ne…

Changes to the status of Karakalpakstan shocked not just that region, but Uzbekistan.

When news of constitutional changes constitution came out last week, local media drew attention to the proposed changes on Karakalpakstan. No one expected this. gazeta.uz/ru/2022/06/30/…

From the onset, we began to hear talk of "foreign provocations" as a pretense for these constitutional reforms.

Before the violence, an analyst said the right to secede must be removed because it could "prevent a conspiracy by outside forces." kun.uz/ru/news/2022/0…

With protests and violence breaking out in Karakalpakstan's capital, Nukus, Mirziyoyev is now walking back proposed constitutional reforms that took the region's nominal autonomy away from it. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

The way the constitutional reforms have been introduced--and the way they have been walked back--illustrate real fissures in the top-down reform process President Mirziyoyev introduced in 2016, after the death of his predecessor Islam Karimov.

brookings.edu/blog/future-de…

Tashkent said constitutional reforms were based on deep engagement w/citizens. But that is hard to do without local elections.

Despite this, officials claimed a consultative process. Here is a statement from the deputy speaker of parliament . intellinews.com/comment-uzbeki…

Karakalpakstan operates in the context of a very unified government that has limited decentralization. Although it is a de jure autonomous republic, it was under de facto central government control.

Here is an outdated, but still useful study. web.worldbank.org/archive/websit…

Since coming to power in 2016, President Mirziyoyev promised sweeping economic reforms, but more limited political reforms.

The Economist named Uzbekistan the country of the year for its reform track record.

economist.com/leaders/2019/1…

The most notable political reform Mirziyoyev promised was greater citizen engagement at the subnational level through elections of local governors.

He talked about this consistently after he was elected in
2016. He last spoke about it in September 2020.
gazeta.uz/ru/2020/09/24/…

I've been visiting Uzbekistan for a 25 years. Of all reforms promised, this one surprised the most as it was a radical restructuring of the way power is distributed.

Last year, Mirziyoyev walked back this promise for local elections.
gazeta.uz/oz/2021/03/19/…

Vital to understand situation in Karakalpakstan in light of these broader trends of center-local relations.

In just months, Uzbekistan went from talk of local elections of governors to eliminating Karakalpakstan's long-held de jure status as an autonomous republic.

The most significant proposed constitutional change relates to presidential term limits. Mirziyoyev was just was elected to his second (and final) term. Proposed reform lets him reset his clock.

Proposed presidential term to be extended from 5 to 7 years.gazeta.uz/ru/2022/06/25/…

This is a familiar playbook. President Karimov did the same thing. Last week in Tashkent so many people asked me about this aspect of the constitutional reform. It was the talk of the town.

Officials close to Mirziyoyev confirmed this as a possibility.
uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/uzbek-lea…

But the changes to the status of Karakalpakstan seemed to come out of no where.

When I saw the changes, I was reminded of Putin's comments that Lenin's nationality policy was a "time bomb" that gave small nations a right for self-determination. newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/v…

Lost in the headlines is that Mirziyoyev paid attention to problems in Karakalpakstan.

Unlike Karimov who ignored the ecological and health disaster, Mirziyoyev changed course. His government invested heavily to develop the region and address poverty. centralasia.news/13194-investme…

Investments in Karakalpakstan went beyond the capital Nukus, but extended to regional centers such as Qung'irot, Turtkul, and of course Moynaq - the fishing town that used to be on the edge of the Aral Sea. Residents there got clean drinking water.
gazeta.uz/ru/2017/07/04/…

Moynaq even got an airport to connect it to the world. There have been serious efforts to turn the region into an eco-tourist destination so visitors could see with their own eyes the tragedy of the Aral Sea.
eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-for…

Another factor affecting Karakalpakstan's trajectory was Mirziyoyev's foreign policy that opened the country up to trade and exchange. Borders opened wide.

This had a huge impact on Karakalpakstan, which could trade and send more migrants to neighboring Kazakhstan and Russia.

With the recent violence, the government is closing down borders.

The inevitable search foreign provocateurs has begun.
gazeta.uz/oz/2022/07/03/…

The future of the region depends heavily on these open borders.

If they do not reopen, there will be huge implications for the local and regional economy.

Migration and travel gave Karakalpaks greater trade and a respite from the ecological disaster.

tengrinews.kz/sng/punktyi-pr…

Not surprising that the new constitutional reform did not include promised election of local officials but was surprising that it walked back autonomy for Karakalpakstan.

President Mirziyoyev had been slowly been walking back many promises. This creates a credibility gap.

One of the greatest challenges facing the current government--and every government--is the gap between what it promises and what it delivers.

People notice these gaps. They remember.

A global wave of protest is sweeping the world. A folly to think Uzbekistan would be immune from this.
In democracies and non-democracies–protests begin peacefully with peaceful citizens who have real grievances only to get hijacked.
carnegieendowment.org/publications/i…

Too early to say what has happened in Nukus. But we have a clue to why protests emerged the way they did.

Context matters. My sense is that Tashkent thought its efforts in Karakalpakstan were enough to secure public support for this move. It's not the way legitimacy is built.