1/6. I'm seeing a lot of despair amongst remainers/rejoiners about @UKLabour's current stance on Brexit. I think this despair is misplaced and that we are already on the path to rejoining. It's just that nobody wants to talk about it.
2/6. It's important to understand the path. It has stages, each of which MUST be completed before the next. 1: Denial; 2: Acknowledgement of harm; 3: Attempt to mitigate within existing arrangements; 4: Seek new deal (something like Norway); 5: Finally rejoin.
3/6. UK is clearly now out of stage 1 and well into 2. @UKLabour's current stance is 2.5 but it dare not progress much ahead of public opinion. Importantly, they don't even need to understand the path (not sure leaders do) or conspire to follow it. They just need to want a fix.
4/6. The implication for remainers/rejoiners is clear. Keep the faith. Keep doing what you're doing. Keep calling out the harms. Even if @Labour can't do it, there's no reason why we can't talk about rejoining.
5/6. Remember, EVERYTHING is on our side: demographics, the arguments, the experience of ordinary people. The best case for reversing Brexit was always going to be its implementation.
6/6. Revolutions end when ordinary supporters lose faith and ordinary leave voters (not noisy Brexit ideologues) ARE quietly losing faith. This will be like US Prohibition (a permanent constitutional change reversed after 13 years). We're on track to rejoining in the early 2030s.
7/ FOOTNOTE#1: Another way of thinking about this is to ask yourself, not what Labour's position is NOW, but what it will be in, say, 2030. Obviously, this depends on events, but...
8/ It seems a fair bet that Brexit will continue to go badly. Ordinary leave voters are already losing faith and remain identities are stronger. At the moment 82% of under 25s want to rejoin. So....
9/ In 2030, Labour (which already has a pro-European membership) will find itself in an environment in which 75%+ of under 40s want to rejoin, and not very many people actively want to stay out.

What do you think their policy towards Europe will be then?

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More from @RichardBentall

Jun 28
1/7 To avoid despair in these bleak times, we good people must understand what links recent legal 'innovations' in the US (revocation of the right to abortion) and Westminster (the NIP legislation that nakedly violates international law). Because there is a link.
2/7 Be of no doubt that these are not sincerely pursued agendas. They are not founded on honest values or love of country. They are not designed to solve problems but to cause them. Their architects seek to divide us, not unite us.
3/7 Some of the protagonists (the American right; the DUP) claim to be clothed in Christianity but their faith and ethics are a disguise, no more genuine than their patriotism. Their religion is performative and instrumental, with the same ultimate goal: power.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
1/20
Hey @TiceRichard, @tomhfh, @DCBMEP, @BrugesGroup, @DavidGHFrostand other Brexiteers.

Some of you have been tweeting 'Happy independence day' - an insult majority of the UK population that ignores a number of important facts which, unless you address them, will doom Brexit.
2/ The first thing you need to recognize is that Brexit has brought misery to millions of people. It has made them hurt and created a feeling of betrayal. This is true for EU citizens living in the UK, but....theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
3/ ... crucially, it is also true of UK citizens who are either strong remainers (because you've insulted our values) or strong leavers (because you have failed miserably to deliver on your promises). This has had a tangible impact on the UK population's mental health.
Read 20 tweets
Jun 11
I’m not sure this is true. Sure, Johnson is going more extreme (best predictor of the behaviour of someone with his personality is past behaviour) but it will just piss off the rebels, and the country, more.
2/ Suppose he does pick a fight with the EU over the NIP next week? What will be the consequence of the EU retaliating, just at the moment when we see a record-breaking squeeze on incomes?
3/ I’m pretty sure the war with the EU over the NIP is unwinnable for Johnson. For a start, any legislation that breaks international law may well fail if either 40+ rebels abstain. If it got past the HoC it would be held up in the Lords until the next GE is looming.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 3
1/12 A few quick reflections on royalty on this Jubilee weekend. Background: I come from a very conservative family and was raised thinking that the monarchy is the natural order of things. Increasingly, over the last few years, I have found myself wondering whether this is true.
2/ For me, and I suspect many people, the monarchy has been a kind of 'default option'. I remember Bob Hawke, Australian republican, at one point arguing that, in the end, the best argument for keeping them was the upheaval and expense of change.
3/ However, there is no contradiction in thinking (as I do) that, overall, Elizabeth II has been a fine and dedicated servant to her nation and has done much good personally, and thinking that the institution she embodies is wrong, or at least well past its sell-by date.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Let's analyze this nonsense, shall we?

#1 The Conservatives are a populist party. A massive majority of the UK population thinks its leader is a serial liar and trust in UK politicians is at an all-time low (both confirmed by polling).
#2 Seriously, dude? Have you checked out what Express-reading leave voters think about the INCREASE in immigration since Brexit? And as you know, the 'high' wages offered by employers can't keep up with higher inflation.
#3 Oh, so not all of this new migration malarky policy is going well after all?
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
39/ Footnote #2. A few people have questioned my use of the term psychopath to describe Johnson, either because it seems hypocritical (I'm a well-known critic of psychiatric diagnoses) or ethics (is it right to use the label with someone I haven't met?).
40/ On the science, there is extensive research on psychopathy, which belongs to the group of personality disorders (PDs; persistent dysfunctional ways of relating to others) rather than mental illnesses. True that there is considerable debate about how PDs should be classified.
41/ For example, in American Psychiatric Association's DSM-5 'antisocial personality disorder' is included, but is a broader concept than psychopathy. But many personality researchers and forensic psychologists/psychiatrists do use the concept of psychopathy.
Read 16 tweets

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