Thread by @kamilkazani

No. Once the war is over hundreds of thousands of veterans gonna return to Russia. Previously most of them expected 20-30 thousand per month as a private. Now they are used to 200-300 thousand per month salaries. I expect them to be a major factor of the Russian civil war

https://twitter.com/GCarty80/status/1543981906169044992

Judging from my sources, regular police is unenthusiastic about the war. They know that all those Rambos returning from Ukraine gonna be their headache for many years to come. They will not just create more work for police doing crimes, but will be dangerous for police themselves

Afghan veterans were a major factor in the rise of the banditry in the late USSR - early Russia. Now it will be worse. Let's be honest, few Russian soliders really perceived Afghans as humans like themselves. They could rape and murder, but they did it on the perceived half-apes

What is now happening in Ukraine has more importance for Russia, because Russian soldiers *do* perceive Ukrainians as humans. They don't think they are really much different. You should understand that Russia sees (East) Ukraine as 100% Russian. And this war - as a civil war

Most Russian soldiers there are mercenaries who enlisted for the material benefits. And are already used to the massive benefits. Also they don't really see a difference between the Russian-speaking Ukrainians and Russians. Whatever they do on Ukrainians, they can do on Russians

When reading many narrative histories of civil wars, I see a certain bias. From a historian perspective it is the political forces and agendas that matter. While survivors may make a bigger focus on the gangs of marauders which can change their formal "allegiance" twice a week

Honestly speaking, I don't believe that Russia will have any way out of the current crisis without a massive internal violence. Should someone from the Putin's circle take power he will have to establish dominance by force. Should "liberals" take power, they will turn on Muslims

There is no unproblematic way out of the crisis and I think that the bloodshed is pretty much guaranteed. Some "velvet" power transition is possible, but it gonna be the first iteration only. Also you may very much exaggerate how velvet the previous velvet transitions were

More importantly. Should anyone take control of Kremlin after Putin, their power will be very much smaller than his. They will have to enter into the horse trades with various interest groups and not only with elites. For a brief period of time even commoners may have a saying

Ruler in Kremlin will has to listen to his subjects. Mostly to other interests groups, but even to commoners (to some extent). He'll resent it. His court will resent it. They'll convince themselves there's no other way than to reestablish dominance by force. And they'll do it

Next established power in Kremlin *will* do a major cleanup once it feels confident enough. They will obliterate anyone who dares to question them or object to them. There's no way around it. The only way this can be avoided is to physically take people under the Kremlin's power

Unproblematic ways out of this crisis don't exist. The only viable solution is to let everyone who wants the way out, the way out. Let people and regions determine their fate themselves. And for that to happen they need to be taken from under the power of Kremlin. The end