Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 4 12 tweets 3 min read
No. Once the war is over hundreds of thousands of veterans gonna return to Russia. Previously most of them expected 20-30 thousand per month as a private. Now they are used to 200-300 thousand per month salaries. I expect them to be a major factor of the Russian civil war
Judging from my sources, regular police is unenthusiastic about the war. They know that all those Rambos returning from Ukraine gonna be their headache for many years to come. They will not just create more work for police doing crimes, but will be dangerous for police themselves
Afghan veterans were a major factor in the rise of the banditry in the late USSR - early Russia. Now it will be worse. Let's be honest, few Russian soliders really perceived Afghans as humans like themselves. They could rape and murder, but they did it on the perceived half-apes
What is now happening in Ukraine has more importance for Russia, because Russian soldiers *do* perceive Ukrainians as humans. They don't think they are really much different. You should understand that Russia sees (East) Ukraine as 100% Russian. And this war - as a civil war
Most Russian soldiers there are mercenaries who enlisted for the material benefits. And are already used to the massive benefits. Also they don't really see a difference between the Russian-speaking Ukrainians and Russians. Whatever they do on Ukrainians, they can do on Russians
When reading many narrative histories of civil wars, I see a certain bias. From a historian perspective it is the political forces and agendas that matter. While survivors may make a bigger focus on the gangs of marauders which can change their formal "allegiance" twice a week
Honestly speaking, I don't believe that Russia will have any way out of the current crisis without a massive internal violence. Should someone from the Putin's circle take power he will have to establish dominance by force. Should "liberals" take power, they will turn on Muslims
There is no unproblematic way out of the crisis and I think that the bloodshed is pretty much guaranteed. Some "velvet" power transition is possible, but it gonna be the first iteration only. Also you may very much exaggerate how velvet the previous velvet transitions were
More importantly. Should anyone take control of Kremlin after Putin, their power will be very much smaller than his. They will have to enter into the horse trades with various interest groups and not only with elites. For a brief period of time even commoners may have a saying
Ruler in Kremlin will has to listen to his subjects. Mostly to other interests groups, but even to commoners (to some extent). He'll resent it. His court will resent it. They'll convince themselves there's no other way than to reestablish dominance by force. And they'll do it
Next established power in Kremlin *will* do a major cleanup once it feels confident enough. They will obliterate anyone who dares to question them or object to them. There's no way around it. The only way this can be avoided is to physically take people under the Kremlin's power
Unproblematic ways out of this crisis don't exist. The only viable solution is to let everyone who wants the way out, the way out. Let people and regions determine their fate themselves. And for that to happen they need to be taken from under the power of Kremlin. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 6
FYI: Mulino is where German Rheinmetall company was building (in their own words):

"Measuring over 500 square kilometres, the state-of-the-art Russian army training centre in Mulino designed to train a reinforced mechanized infantry or armoured brigade"

Mulino was modelled after the training center of Bundesehr in Altmarkt. In order to proceed with the construction, the Rheinmentall entered in the strategic partnership with Russian stated owned defence company Oboronservis Image
That was the high point of Serdyukov's reform. Serdyukov tried to modernise the Russian army importing ready solutions from the West: from the armaments to the tactics. And the Rheinmetall was more than ready to help to train the Russian troops Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 5
It might be more accurate to describe Daudov (Lord) as the commander-in-chief (вице-премьер по силовому блоку)

Regarding his rhetorics the level of religious observance in Chechnya is vastly exaggerated. I'd even say that being really observant is a sign of nonnocformity there
The large mosque in the centre of Grozny is nearly empty with exception of Friday and religious holidays. Theoretically everyone is supposed to pray five times a day. Very few do that in reality. You might think they pray at home, but majority doesn't. It's certainly an exception
I find that most discussions about Chechnya amount to savagery-porn. Like some paint Chechens as "evil savages". Some as "noble" ones. But that's all projections, because they're neither. Not that much of traditional society or culture survived through the 20th century
Read 14 tweets
Jul 5
If I had to recommend one single book on the Tatar political tradition that would be:

Natalia Królikowska-Jedlińska "Law and Division of Power in the Crimean Khanate (1532-1774)"

Great study based on Crimean archives and a nice introduction into the topic for the wide audience
There are also great books in Russian but they are untranslated to English. Also there are studies in Tatar which are not even published
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4
He assimilated. He bears Russian name and gave Russian names to his children. He's baptised. Russian masses would considered as almost Russian. His Chinese-style palace or books portraying him as Subaday would hurt his Russified image though. But may be this is exactly his plan
If Shoygu looked too Russian he could be seen as a potential successor, thus risking a conflict with Putin. Perhaps it's more rational to play "Asian" card in order *not* to be seen as a heir

NB: Shoygu remained in government under all Presidents and PMs since 1991. He's cunning
Shoygu never objected to interest groups. He always courted the media. Once journalists who came to Chechnya from Moscow to broadcast his accomplishments lost in the mountains, got scared and wanted to leave. So he drove after them, knelt before them and asked for forgiveness
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4
Great question. My answer:

1. Ethnic republics are super vulnerable. Moscow is much more likely to unhinge violence on them, than on Russian Oblasts. And nobody gonna step up

2. From the minority perspective you must be absolutely cracked to help "liberals" to get into power
Btw Melekhin's tweet perfectly illustrated position of ethnic republics in Russian federation. You know that the Kremlin will do with you whatever they want at the slightest disobedience. And let's be honest: you won't get help from anywhere and nobody gonna step up for you
Objecting to Kremlin or not drawing the fake election results it demands is a massive risk. Because the moment Kremlin wants, they'll break you with the Moscow liberal establishment cheering. Moscow liberals are as imperialist as Putin, just with an additional dose of racism
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4
That's a racist lie. It's also an important lie that helps to understand the worldview of Russian "liberals". In the Russian discourse and especially in the "liberal" discourse everything negative or evil always come from Asia. It's an axiom that requires no proof or evidence
Consider the following. Clueless people like parroting the idea about Russian despotism inherited from the Tatar Khanates. Ok. Let's assume this may be true. Then the question about the political & legal culture of the said Khanates should take central place in that discussion
The argument about the Russian absolutist practices being borrowed from the Tatar Khanates, depends on a question of how did those Khanates look like? Politics, law, institutions. Notice that this question strangely misses from the discussion. Because the entire argument is a lie
Read 8 tweets

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