Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 5, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
It might be more accurate to describe Daudov (Lord) as the commander-in-chief (вице-премьер по силовому блоку)

Regarding his rhetorics the level of religious observance in Chechnya is vastly exaggerated. I'd even say that being really observant is a sign of nonnocformity there
The large mosque in the centre of Grozny is nearly empty with exception of Friday and religious holidays. Theoretically everyone is supposed to pray five times a day. Very few do that in reality. You might think they pray at home, but majority doesn't. It's certainly an exception
I find that most discussions about Chechnya amount to savagery-porn. Like some paint Chechens as "evil savages". Some as "noble" ones. But that's all projections, because they're neither. Not that much of traditional society or culture survived through the 20th century
Not much of economy either. When visiting Chechnya I was surprised how little subsistence farming and animal husbandry I saw. Much less than in some neighbouring regions. I asked about it:

"Yeah, twenty years ago we had it. Now every house has the Wifi and TikTok instead"
If you think that Chechnya is an oasis of some uninterrupted tradition whether good or bad one, you are wrong. Traditional society was thoroughly uprooted. Tribal system for example. Now yeah everyone knows which clan they belong to and you are weird if you don't. But that's it
Clans (teips) do not serve as real structures that can be use for armed mobilisation as it was in the 19th c. Thinking that Chechen clans act this way and tribal leaders can call their men to war is like thinking the modern Highland chiefs in Scotland have this power. They don't
Chechnya is not a traditional tribal society anymore and Kadyrov's regime is *not* tribal. It's also not that religious. Btw Chechnya never was especially religious. Religion was imposed there from North Dagestan. Which indeed is the centre of Islamic knowledge. Like Khasavyurt
"Traditional religious tribal Islamist that are gonna kill us all" it's largely savagery porn aimed at Westerners. And Chechen authorities play this card, cuz it works. They're wise enough to understand that Western journalists don't need any information. They need confirmation
I think that pretty much every non Westerner with half a brain already figured out how to build a stable partnership with Western media:

1. Identify their preconceptions (that's easy, they don't even try to hide them)
2. Confirm them all

This is the way
Kadyrov is smart enough to understand this and he purposefully target the Western media space - both institutional media and the social media. In March re shared a post by a TV host Kandelaki in his Telegram channel:
"Ramzan confidently entered the social media space and realised it is the modern battlefield. Elon Musk and Pavel Durov are responding to Ramzan. We are in one step from Biden himself starting to publicly react to Kadyrov's Telegram - a unique case in political technologies"
Chechnya lives in the same social media space as the West. It's really important there. And Kadyrov is craving for attention. See example here. Attention in Russia is good. But attention in the West would be much better. Elon Musk reacting to him is a big victory for example
Interviewers of the Harvard Project were aware of the power asymmetry between them and their Soviets respondents. They guide for interviewing stated that respondents "may distort their answers in order to tell Americans what they think Americans want to hear". Well, ofc they will Image
What modern journalists don't seem to understand that the same power asymmetry exists between them and the Putin's satrap in North Caucasus. He lives in the same social media space as them and works hard to build his image there. He'll go at great lengths to achieve that. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 7
Victory has a hundred fathers, defeat is an orphan

Everyone is trying to appropriate the rise of China for their own purposes, like it proves their theory, ideology whatever

No one, however, wants to appropriate the post-Soviets, who, by the way, also made capitalist reforms
What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power

That was almost entirely state's job
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets

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