Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 5, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
It might be more accurate to describe Daudov (Lord) as the commander-in-chief (вице-премьер по силовому блоку)

Regarding his rhetorics the level of religious observance in Chechnya is vastly exaggerated. I'd even say that being really observant is a sign of nonnocformity there
The large mosque in the centre of Grozny is nearly empty with exception of Friday and religious holidays. Theoretically everyone is supposed to pray five times a day. Very few do that in reality. You might think they pray at home, but majority doesn't. It's certainly an exception
I find that most discussions about Chechnya amount to savagery-porn. Like some paint Chechens as "evil savages". Some as "noble" ones. But that's all projections, because they're neither. Not that much of traditional society or culture survived through the 20th century
Not much of economy either. When visiting Chechnya I was surprised how little subsistence farming and animal husbandry I saw. Much less than in some neighbouring regions. I asked about it:

"Yeah, twenty years ago we had it. Now every house has the Wifi and TikTok instead"
If you think that Chechnya is an oasis of some uninterrupted tradition whether good or bad one, you are wrong. Traditional society was thoroughly uprooted. Tribal system for example. Now yeah everyone knows which clan they belong to and you are weird if you don't. But that's it
Clans (teips) do not serve as real structures that can be use for armed mobilisation as it was in the 19th c. Thinking that Chechen clans act this way and tribal leaders can call their men to war is like thinking the modern Highland chiefs in Scotland have this power. They don't
Chechnya is not a traditional tribal society anymore and Kadyrov's regime is *not* tribal. It's also not that religious. Btw Chechnya never was especially religious. Religion was imposed there from North Dagestan. Which indeed is the centre of Islamic knowledge. Like Khasavyurt
"Traditional religious tribal Islamist that are gonna kill us all" it's largely savagery porn aimed at Westerners. And Chechen authorities play this card, cuz it works. They're wise enough to understand that Western journalists don't need any information. They need confirmation
I think that pretty much every non Westerner with half a brain already figured out how to build a stable partnership with Western media:

1. Identify their preconceptions (that's easy, they don't even try to hide them)
2. Confirm them all

This is the way
Kadyrov is smart enough to understand this and he purposefully target the Western media space - both institutional media and the social media. In March re shared a post by a TV host Kandelaki in his Telegram channel:
"Ramzan confidently entered the social media space and realised it is the modern battlefield. Elon Musk and Pavel Durov are responding to Ramzan. We are in one step from Biden himself starting to publicly react to Kadyrov's Telegram - a unique case in political technologies"
Chechnya lives in the same social media space as the West. It's really important there. And Kadyrov is craving for attention. See example here. Attention in Russia is good. But attention in the West would be much better. Elon Musk reacting to him is a big victory for example
Interviewers of the Harvard Project were aware of the power asymmetry between them and their Soviets respondents. They guide for interviewing stated that respondents "may distort their answers in order to tell Americans what they think Americans want to hear". Well, ofc they will Image
What modern journalists don't seem to understand that the same power asymmetry exists between them and the Putin's satrap in North Caucasus. He lives in the same social media space as them and works hard to build his image there. He'll go at great lengths to achieve that. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Apr 29
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?


Image
The strategic missiles industry appears to be highly secretive and impenetrable to the observers. And yet, it is perfectly OSINTable, based on the publicly available sources. This investigation sample illustrates our approach and methodology (31 p.)

assets-global.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…
Image
Step 1. State Propaganda.

Our first and invaluable source is the state propaganda, such as the federal and regional TV channels, corporate media, social media and so on. It provides abundant visual evidence, particularly on the hardware used in the production of weaponry.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec

The link is in the first comment Image
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download



By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.comImage
Key takeaways:

1. Missile production is mostly about machining
2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise
3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually

That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive processImage
Read 15 tweets
Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
Read 23 tweets
Feb 19
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
Read 8 tweets

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