Thread by @GonzaloLira1968

Thread:

▪️Why the Russians will have to occupy the entirety of Ukraine — but won’t annex all of it.

▪️Why the Zelensky goons will fight to the last Ukrainian — before they flee to the West.

▪️Why Russia will occupy Ukraine for several years — before dismembering it.

1/22

NATO will back Ukraine indefinitely with more weapons — and more cash — so long as the Zelensky regime keeps throwing soldiers at the Russian army.

They know that Z. & Co. have stolen a lot of that gear and cash.

And that’s OK by NATO — so long as there is NO PEACE DEAL.

2/

NATO thinks prolonging this war saps Russia’s strength. They’ve said so openly. But the US doesn’t dare go head-to-head with the Russians.

So they’re willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian — and they have Zelensky’s corruption to force him to continue on this path.

3/

Why won’t the Americans ever fight the Russians? Because they know they’ll lose. Yavoriv taught them that.

For all the bullshit that the Twitteratti have been claiming, the Pentagon knows that the Russians will beat them badly — and that kind of humiliation costs careers.

4/

NATO knowing that Zelensky and his goons have stolen a lot of money makes them controllable — so that’s why the Americans will see to it that the Ukrainian soldiers fight to the last man, but no American soldier ever sets foot in Ukraine.

5/

But it goes both ways: Zelensky and Co. will do what the US wants — so long as they are protected. From prosecution AND from other Ukrainians.

NATO will remove any military commander who objects to this suicidal strategy — and stop any military coup d’état against Z. & Co.

6/

Thus Ukraine’s fate is sealed: Zelensky will remain in power with his pilfered fortune until the Ukraine army is completely destroyed and Ukraine is a ruin. Just to “weaken the Russians”.

Thus Russia will be obliged to capture ALL of Ukraine.

7/

In fact — US/NATO is counting on the fact that Russia will have to destroy the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces, and take all of Ukraine.

NATO believes that this will overextend Russia — and weaken Putin to the point of being overthrown.

Thus Ukraine itself will be sacrificed.

8/

Once the Ukrainian AF has been totally destroyed and Kiev falls — only then will Zelensky be allowed by the Americans to flee.

He will likely go to Miami or Israel, maybe set up some government in exile bullshit. He will be allowed to keep his money, and then be forgotten.

9/

The result of Zelensky/NATO obliging the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight to the last man will be an enormous power vacuum in Ukraine.

Russia would need at least 300,000 men just to police this enormous, destroyed country, and maintain basic order.

The Americans WANT this.

10/

Putin will likely be forced to carry out a mass mobilization in Russia to get the troops needed for such an occupation — and the geniuses in Washington think that this will bring about Putin’s collapse in Russian.

They don’t understand: Putin is a moderate in the Kremlin.

11/

The Kremlin and a big chunk of the Russian people will be HAPPY there will be no negotiations, and that there will be a complete occupation of Ukraine.

Far from weakening his position, Putin will be viewed as the wise, strong leader who never negotiated — who stood firm.

12/

Thus Russia will end up occupying all of Ukraine with alacrity.

And the US/NATO forces will never set foot in Ukraine — instead, they will fund the “Ukrainian insurgents”.

The Russians have experience with insurgents — they know how to handle them, so it’ll be a non-issue.

13/

The issue for the Russians will be, What to do with this enormous country?

They won’t annex all of it — only the Russian speaking parts, which is basically everything east of the Dnipro river and north of the Black Sea, including Odessa and Transnistria.

14/

Putin and the Kremlin are far too clever to annex all of Ukraine. They understand that the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine consider themselves Russian — but the central and western parts consider themselves Ukrainian.

So why annex a huge piece of territory that hates you?

15/

It will be much smarter if the Russians let Kiev and the rest of Ukraine become a separate state.

Russia is an empire — and knows how to manage an empire. You don’t occupy territory — you deal with the local strongman.

So Russia will install and back a local strongman.

16/

This rump Ukraine will have to be successful enough to not cost the Russians money to support them, but not so successful that it creates a problem.

And of course, this rump Ukraine must be politically docile to Russia.

17/

The rump Ukraine can never be allowed to join the EU, much less NATO. It will be a statelet dominated by Russia.

Ukrainian nationalists will be pushed all the way west to Lviv, where they will be bottled up and become the rump Ukraine state’s problem — not Russia’s.

18/

One thing that the Americans have not realized is that the end of this will bring an enormous economic boom to Russia.

Russia will have to rebuild the destroyed Ukraine, especially the parts that it will annex. It’s reasonable to think it’ll be on the order of $500 billion.

19/

The Russian State has a huge surplus because of the sanctions. Further, Russia cannot import building goods and materials from the west.

Therefore the Russian state will spend a huge amount of money INTERNALLY — which will build Russian private industry like never before.

20/

This will only help to make Russia even more self-sufficient.

This Ukraine situation will in the end work out to Russia’s advantage: It will strengthen its army, its economy, add huge natural resources, strengthen Putin’s positioning — it will even mean a likely baby boom.

21/

The cynical and truly evil US strategy to weaken Russia by corrupting the Ukrainian leadership and sacrificing the Ukrainian army, nation and people will NOT lead to the collapse of Russia — it will probably lead to the strongest Russia we have seen since Peter the Great.

22/22

ADDENDUM:

The foregoing analysis is not “cheerleading for Russia”, nor is it anti-Ukraine or even anti-American.

I am simply looking at things logically: Projecting known data points into the future.

I do not favor any side — I’m just trying to figure out what comes next.

GL