Thread by @COVIDSciOntario

We have likely entered a wave driven by the Omicron BA.5 subvariant.

Key Messages:
- The rise in hospitalizations will likely be smaller than earlier waves, but our hospitals are already very strained.
(1/17)

Key Messages (Cont'd):
- You can be re-infected by BA.5 even if you have recently been infected with an earlier strain.
- Non severe infections can still be disruptive to your life and increase long COVID risk.
(2/17)

Key Messages (Cont'd):
- The 3rd vaccine dose is critical to protect against severe disease.
- Going back to wearing a mask again in crowded indoor public spaces is a good way to protect yourself until the wave is done.
(3/17)

@COVIDSciOntario review of multiple indicators supports the start of a wave:

1) The wastewater signal is rising, overall and within most regions.
(4/17)

2) The test positivity rate (orange line) is above 10% for the first time since May
(5/17)

3) We are seeing the first increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations since May 2022, and hospitalizations remain higher than at any time last summer.
(6/17)

4) ~80% of public health units have exponential growth in cases (Rt>1), indicating this is occurring across the province (Note, Rt is harder to interpret given limited PCR testing).
(7/17)

5) Since June 1, most G10 countries have already seen a rise in cases and hospitalizations driven by highly contagious Omicron sub-variants. We may be a couple weeks behind in this rise.
(8/17)

Current evidence does not suggest BA.5 is more severe or that it will lead to a rise in hospitalizations as large as previous waves. However, any surge comes at a time when hospitals are already dealing with staff shortages and record wait times – this impacts all of us.
(9/17)

And if BA.5 spreads widely, we may see a rise in deaths among higher risk groups such as the elderly as was observed during the previous waves.
thestar.com/news/gta/2022/…
(10/17)

Even if you are not hospitalized, infections can leave you feeling unwell, and be disruptive to your family and work life. And each infection puts you at risk of long COVID.
(11/17)

Unfortunately, a recent infection may not protect you very well from reinfection with BA.5.

So, as we’re entering a new wave, it’s worth re-engaging with multiple layers of protection to reduce risk:nature.com/articles/s4158…
(12/17)

1) Ensure your vaccinations are up to date.
60% of adults have received their 3rd dose. It provides significant additional protection against serious illness. If you are over 18 and haven’t received your third dose – get it now.
(13/17)

If you are age 60 or over, or immunocompromised, and haven’t received your 4th dose, now is the time.
New vaccines targeted to emerging variants could be available this fall, but as there’s a wave starting, it makes sense to get the vaccines you are eligible for now.
(14/17)

2) If you are in crowded indoor public settings, wear a high-quality mask (surgical, KN95 or N95).
Ventilate as much as possible by opening windows and doors to ensure good circulation.
(15/17)

3) Wherever possible, choose lower risk alternatives. For example, enjoy the great weather by gathering with friends outdoors instead of indoors.
(16/17)

We have tools that work, and we know what to do. So do whatever you can to reduce your risk while enjoying the summer
(17/17)