Rumours about Trump being a Russian agent may be exaggerated. It is a fact though that the Russian propaganda perceived him as a potential ally. Consider this patriotic song. On 0:25 you can hear laments about the "President beyond the ocean [Trump] being stripped of his power"
That's song "Uncle Vova [Putin], we're with you" released in November 2017, just ten months after Trump's inauguration. Therefore, laments about Trump being "stripped of his power" refer to the constitutional checks on his power rather than anything else
Within the official Russian discourse, President is perceived as a quasi monarchical figure and as the only source of legitimacy. He is casually referred to as "Sovereign". All the civil servants are Sovereign's men. All the federal or municipal budgets - the Sovereign's money
In 2016 Russian propaganda celebrated the Trump's election. Just one example
Medals on the Trump's election produced in Zlatoust, Russia. Level of Trumpophilia in 2016-2017 Russia was insane. In mid 2016 one blogger joked that judging from the official TV propaganda, in November Trump gonna be elected as the President of Rusia
What exactly should have happened with the Trump's elections? Some hoped for the Russian-US rapprochement. Others, for the US political system drifting towards Russia, evolving into yet another quasi monarchical order. Both were mistaken. Soon Russian loyalists were disappointed
Wild videos with the "Putin's squads" grannies beating Trump, capturing him, burning Trump's dummy, burying his portrait become more understandable if you consider that they were very emotionally invested in him from the beginning. That's why they were so much disappointed later
That makes sense in the context of Russian quasi monarchic political culture. As a quasi monarchy with all the federal or regional budget being the Sovereign's money, with all the civil servants being the Sovereign's men, Russia finds it easier to deal with other quasimonarchies
Claims about a supposed "coup" in Kyiv, 2014 should be viewed in this context. President Yanukovich was impeached by his own parliament, according to the written law. But from the Russian perspective they broke a more important unwritten law. You can't impeach your President
From the perspective of the written law, President is a public servant, who can be questioned, protested against or impeached. But according to the informal, unwritten Russian law, President is the Sovereign. He is the sole source of power and legitimacy in the country
From the perspective of Kremlin however, Parliament ousting Yanukovich was illegitimate (despite being legal). People rebelled against their Sovereign. The mutiny must be crushed so that neither Ukrainians or Russians would ever think of rebelling against their Sovereign. The end
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.